Our expert looks to unearth the value on day two of the Dante Festival at York, featuring the competitive Hambleton Handicap.
Value Bet tips: Thursday May 12
1pt win Zargun in 1.50 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Snash in 3.00 York at 25/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Get Ahead in 4.10 York at 10/1 (bet365)
Easterby recruit has plenty of upside
Day two on the Knavesmire and the big punting race is the Paddy Power Hambleton Handicap over the best part of a mile.
If there’s a Royal Hunt Cup horse in the line-up then I’m pretty convinced it's Isla Kai, who is bred to be well above-average and was extremely progressive when sent handicapping by trainer Nigel Tinkler last term.
The son of Awtaad cuts an imposing figure and could hardly have shaped with more promise when finishing fourth – beaten just a length from a prominent position throughout – to subsequent Listed scorer Modern News on his seasonal comeback in the Spring Cup at Newbury.
I’ve no qualms over the revised rating, up just 1lb to 100, nor the wide draw which seems quite easily overcome granted a good start around this track, and he has strong course form already in the bag courtesy of his half-length second to Eton Rifles (now running under the name Mr Ascendency in Hong Kong) in the Sky Bet Mile at the Ebor meeting in August.
His price isn’t wildly off-putting either (6/1 in places) with a little juice in the ground looking ideal but the single issue I have is the fact he’s clearly not going to get anything like his own way out in front with Garden Oasis, Cruyff Turn and Lion Tower others who also like to get on with it, two of which are course and distance winners already.
It’s never easy to be confident about such a scenario at York, but things could map out really nicely for the hold-up horses here, with the well-treated Trais Fluors and classy Bless Him two of the more obvious candidates to take advantage of a possible late pace collapse.
However, the one I want on side at the prices is the relatively unexposed SNASH, who has just shown enough in two starts for Tim Easterby to suggest he’ll be a force in some of the nicer handicaps this term.
They include a never-nearer eighth – eventually beaten just over two lengths – in the Thirsk Hunt Cup when trying a mile for the first time late last month, a race in which Lion Tower and Cruyff Turn finished just ahead and Trais Fluors (who suffered trouble in running) just behind him at the line.
Snash wasn’t disgraced on his yard debut when seventh to Boardman over seven furlongs at Haydock the week before Thirsk either and, after another 1lb drop, he’s now running off a mark 7lb lower than when signing off for Charlie Hills at this track last October.
There is admittedly a fair chance he may need another run of two to really find his feet in his new home but the Shadwell-bred son of Markaz mixed in classy company in his youth and looks to be rediscovering his mojo pretty sharpish in the north.
Seemingly well-drawn in stall six, I’ll happily back him each-way as it’s hoped he’ll be picking off rivals late in the piece.
Sit back and soak up what Dante has to offer
The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes features a couple of this column’s antepost Derby fancies so hopefully plenty will be revealed in terms of Desert Crown and El Bodegon's credentials, the latter of whom looked a shade too big when betting first went live for this race.
That has corrected itself now and I’ll watch with interest given it’s extremely hard to know what to expect from Sir Michael Stoute’s Nottingham maiden winner Desert Crown.
He must have been showing a huge amount of promise at home to be as short as he is (6/1) for Epsom having yet to feature in a trial, but on racecourse evidence alone I’d have to be with proven 10-furlong Group One winner El Bodegon here.
Get Cox filly on the staking plan
There are more appealing bets to be had elsewhere, though, and it looks highly significant Clive Cox is willing to run the 91-rated GET AHEAD against horses rated considerably higher in the British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes.
Sprint king Cox already knows she’s capable of mixing it at Listed level on the back of her close third at Bath last month and the selection was definitely the horse to take from that race as she was only denied by two horses who powered home late down the wide outside.
In fact, the winner, second, fourth, fifth and sixth were drawn 11, 16, 14, 13 and 12 respectively so it’s not hard to argue Get Ahead did exceedingly well from stall five when it looked like the rain that evening may have affected the track a little more down on the inside rail.
It was only the filly's second start since her slightly unlucky sixth (carried left, finished lame) in last summer’s Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and getting back to the minimum trip, having reappeared with a fine effort over six furlongs at Kempton (travelled well, led a furlong from the finish) evidently suited.
No doubt she’s getting there fitness-wise now and, with further improvement expected as she matures and conditions probably ideal (won on good to soft on debut last May), the 5lb fillies’ allowance she gets from those in front of her in the betting could be enough to bring her right into the mix.
Course form points to Zargun
In the opening Paddy Power ‘Making Flat Less Flat Handicap’ the thriving Raasel is going to be popular with James Doyle keeping the ride following the horse’s win at Goodwood last month.
Perhaps he’s a genuine Group-class sprinter in the making but at the odds ZARGUN looks the one to be on.
He was a well-held seventh behind Raasel over five furlongs at Nottingham last October but is a massive 21lb better off with that rival here and he goes well fresh. Not only that, he goes well fresh at York as he was third to Mr Lupton over six at this meeting 12 months ago and returned from 70 days away to post a fine second over Thursday’s course and distance in October.
He looked mightily unlucky that day, fending all bar the late-closing Illusionist off with a game effort, and he duly went to Catterick later that month to set the record straight. That win came off 92 and he resumes off 95 with Jonathan Fisher claiming 5lb so I don’t expect him to be handicapped out of things by any means.
Twenty of Fisher’s 33 winners have come for the Dixon yard and it wouldn’t come as a shock to see him enhance quite a tidy little record on the Knavesmire which currently stands at two winners and a third from just eight rides.
Published at 1500 BST on 11/05/22
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