Our man is on the hunt for the pick of the value on the third day of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival and he's got a couple of fresh recommended bets.
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Value Bet tips: Friday, August 25
1pt e.w. Dark Moon Rising in 1.50 York at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Power Of Gold in 5.15 York at 25/1 (bet365), 22/1 General
Already advised
Regional forecast look promsing
The Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes takes top billing on what could be a relatively quiet punting day in truth.
Having got Regional on side at 16s for the Nunthorpe a couple of weeks ago, he’s not completely unbackable at his current 9/1 but is getting close to being the right price now and he’s obviously got to take another serious step up to bridge the gap on the big two here.
I’ve nothing against reigning champion Highfield Princess - far from it in fact - and she’s looked a shade unlucky to win just the once so far this year, having appeared to have the sprinting world at her feet after rattling off three Group 1 victories towards the end of last summer.
She was simply different class when eased to Group 2 level at Goodwood last time but there was nothing wrong with her Duke of York, King’s Stand or Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes efforts earlier in the campaign either and there’s every reason to expect another serious performance on a track that clearly suits.
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King’s Stand winner Bradsell comes here fresh and obviously beat Highfield Princess at the Royal meeting, that performance a massive improvement on what he’d shown over slightly further earlier in the campaign.
Granted, he won his novice here on debut last year but that came at six furlongs and the flying five here is a good deal sharper test than the one he enjoyed at Ascot in June.
A handful of two-year-olds have won the Nunthorpe over the years and youngsters have filled the runner-up spot in two of the past five seasons so Big Evs does warrant a mention, for all that a game Molecomb win from the front on very testing ground at Goodwood is likely to have taken plenty out of him.
So I keep coming back to the highly progressive five-year-old Regional, who is another that clearly likes this track and will hopefully still have his favoured fast ground despite the threat of a few light showers.
He’s also deliberately been kept fresh for this after winning a Listed race at Haydock on June 10, when beating Wednesday’s big handicap winner Equilateral, and I like his draw in seven in between the market leaders.
I can resist doubling down at current odds, though, and won’t be playing in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes either.
It’s a bit of a messy division at the moment and Quickthorn took full advantage with his remarkable all-the-way win at Goodwood. It’s worth recalling he pulled off the same tactics in this event 12 months ago which left a bunch of rival jockeys red-faced so it’s hard to imagine it happening a third time.
The Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami probably deserves a pass for his Goodwood effort on the softest ground he’s encountered so I’d be with him if pushed into a selection but thankfully that’s never the case.
Cut to the chase…
Onto the horses I am willing to chance on Friday’s card and kicking off with DARK MOON RISING in the Sky Bet Handicap.
One of two for Kevin Ryan in this mile and a half contest, I’ve plenty of time for stablemate Marhaba The Champ (Ryan Moore) here too as he steps up to the trip for the first time. By Galileo out of a smart sprinter, you never quite know until you try stamina-wise but if Marhaba The Champ stays he’s got to be thereabouts off just 1lb higher than when successful over 10 furlongs here at the Dante meeting.
Dark Moon Rising was tried over as far as a mile and three-quarters last season but he was fighting a bit of a losing battle with the handicapper at the time, having won a conditions race at Chelmsford on his three-year-old debut and been fourth in Desert Crown’s Dante.
He’s taken a while to find his form again this time around but, with the cheekpieces off, he looked right back on great terms with himself here late last month, galloping resolutely to the line to win a course and distance handicap with a bit to spare.
Never stronger than at the line, I reckon we could see this horse over further again in time but a strongly-run race at this trip will certainly play to his strengths and, having gone up just 4lb to a mark of 86, he’s still a fair way below his 2022 peak rating of 102 so should still have plenty of room to manoeuvre if kicking on from the confidence-booster as you might expect.
It could be a very good day for Ryan as the closest I came to a bet in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes was his twice-raced Jehangeer, who bumped into subsequent Coventry Stakes runner-up Army Ethos in an Ayr maiden first time out in May.
He did go one better at the same venue the following month but still looked very rough around the edges and so much depends on the progress he has made in the intervening weeks, both mentally and physically.
The price is tempting (25/1 and bigger) but so much of it comes down to guesswork in a race like this.
I’d be firmly with Rowayeh and Sisyphus Strength in the Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap and it’s hard to argue there’s a whole lot of juice left in their prices.
Having said that, the latter was thrown in at Listed level earlier in the year and could still have more to offer off a revised mark of 93 (up 6lb) following her comfortable win at Newmarket last month.
Oisin Murphy is likely to try and make all the running from stall one and could be tough to peg back, but I reckon I’d want to see double-figure odds before getting involved so will have to take a pull at this point.
Go for Gold at big price in the finale
The other one I do want on side is Hugo Palmer’s POWER OF GOLD in the concluding Sky Bet Mile Handicap, a race Palmer won with another bottom weight in Short Squeeze a decade ago.
That was a horse who had been tried over longer distances earlier in his career and the same can be said of Power Of Gold as, among other 10-furlong races, he ran in Chesspiece’s maiden at Newcastle last November.
That was the third time he’d bumped into a very decent rival as he was second to subsequent 2000 Guineas runner-up Hi Royal on debut, before finishing third behind the now 97-rated Bolster at Leicester.
This year Power Of Gold made a promising reappearance when third to Coverdale (gone up 17lb since) at Redcar in May but he flopped on the Rowley Mile when sent off favourite later that month before really bouncing back with a tidy victory at Doncaster, more form that worked out well with the second chasing home Balance Play at Chester and the third winning at Pontefract on his next start.
The drop back to a mile on quick ground clearly sparked improvement in the son of Golden Horn, and I’m willing to excuse his next two performances on much easier going at Ayr and on the all-weather at Newcastle last month. He certainly wasn’t disgraced on either occasion but they were slowly-run affairs and he surely wasn’t seen to best effect.
What this horse wants is a proper gallop to chase on a sound surface and he should get just that here with the likes of Glenfinnan, Finn’s Charm and Modesty all likely to be vying for the lead early on. Harry Davies is in to do the light weight and it’s hoped the gaps arrive for him in time.
Published at 1600 BST on 24/08/23
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