Our value-seeker looks ahead to the 2023 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes, one of the feature Group 1s at York's Ebor Festival in August.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season, 2023
1pt win Regional in Coolmore Nunthorpe Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes at 16/1 (General)
There were a number of inevitable shake-ups in the antepost markets following Saturday's dramatic King George including winner Hukum and runner-up Westover being cut for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Hukum, who has had injury trouble in the past, has looked better than ever in two starts this year and he's got a brilliant record fresh so is likely to be put away for Longchamp between now and the first Sunday in October. He did leave it all out there at Ascot, though, and I'd still be fractionally concerned about him holding peak form even with a nice break heading into the autumn.
Westover is surely well capable of improving on last year's Arc sixth now he's a fully-furnished four-year-old but the real aces look to be in France this year and Blue Rose Cen may be about to hammer that point home in this week's Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Desert Crown was unfortunately absent from the King George and it must have been galling for connections to see his form work out so positively on the day, given he'd had Westover behind in the Derby last year and made Hukum work hard as they both returned from layoffs in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown earlier this year.
However, what baffled me slightly was that Desert Crown was immediately trimmed in the market for the Juddmonte International. Granted, that race was mentioned as the most likely next target but, given what we now know, would you really part with your cash and back this injury-troubled horse in advance of any top race? Subsequent events show we were incredibly fortunate to land on him in this column before his big day as a three-year-old at Epsom.
Paddington and Prince Of Wales's Stakes winner Mostahdaf still head the Juddmonte International market which is perfectly fair, though I'm not sure King George third King Of Steel (8/1) is likely to turn up at York just 25 days on from Ascot, and Nashwa must be another doubtful starter as she first faces the aforementioned Blue Rose Cen at Goodwood.
It'll be interesting to see if the Charlie Appleby-trained Nations Pride - Godolphin's only entry - is aimed at the race on the back of his relatively soft Group 1 win in Germany on Sunday (trimmed to 10/1), and if the ground came up testing, which you certainly couldn't rule out, then Desert Crown's stable companion Bay Bridge may be the forgotten horse around 16/1, although his form has taken a few knocks along the way this term.
On balance, I'd rather have an early dart at the meeting's other Group 1 feature - the Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes - as that could be blown wide open if Highfield Princess doesn't return to winning ways down south this week.
The two-year-old Relief Rally has every right to be in the reckoning on the back of her Super Sprint win but it's a big jump up and she's easy to resist at 7/1 as it sounds like the Sky Bet Lowther is preferred. Bradsell won his debut here and looks to be getting quicker and Azure Blue can probably be excused her July Cup flop when getting little cover and over-racing through the early stages.
It'll be fascinating to see is Michael Dods brings her here for the first five-furlong outing of her live, which would be a baptism of fire to say the least.One horse we can almost guarantee is on track for the Nunthorpe is REGIONAL and he looks the bet at this stage.
Of course, Ed Bethell's horse has another 10lb of improvement to make if he's to come up to scratch in this sort of company but he's absolutely thriving this season and could definitely scale greater heights having fairly bolted up in a Listed race at Haydock in mid-July (replay below).
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That was another significant career-best on the back of a handicap victory from a mark of 100 over this course and distance at the Dante Festival, and who would blame the Bethell camp for wanting to keep the dream alive by skipping Goodwood, where the ground wouldn't be in his favour anyway.
Early pace carries at York and Regional definitely has that brazen speed required for a race of this nature, while an overdue sunny spell towards the end of August would play right into his hands, though he has also handled ease in the ground in the past too.
At 16/1 across the board he looks to fit the bill nicely for a long-range interest and there's a reasonable chance one or two of those shorter than Regional in the market will fall away in the coming weeks to strengthen the antepost position.
First published on Sporting Life Plus at 1600 BST on 30/07/23
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