Where will Facile Vega and Impaire Et Passe run at the Cheltenham Festival?

The bookmakers clearly don’t know, Paul Townend seems far from sure and – as the old saying goes – Willie might not have made a decision until the weekend before the Festival anyway, but it’s fun and potentially profitable to try and second-guess how the Closutton novice hurdlers will pan out heading into Cheltenham.

There was some inevitable shrewdie chatter doing the rounds on social media last Saturday regarding an Impaire Et Passe Sky Bet Supreme and Facile Vega Ballymore double ahead of the former’s Punchestown outing on Sunday, and those who availed themselves of the 100/1-plus about the speculative switch-hit will surely have had their interest piqued by the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle.

Despite easing slightly from an initial 2/9 in places to an SP of 1/3, Impaire Et Passe won as he liked by six and a half lengths from his main ‘market rival’ The Model Kingdom, but it was the manner of the win which suddenly makes things interesting.

It was always going to be a slightly nervous moment for those already on Facile Vega for the Supreme, Mullins’ last five Moscow Flyer winners (Dysart Dynamo, Getabird, Min, Douvan, Vautour) all going on to contest the Festival opener in March, and there's no denying Impaire Et Passe coped extremely well with a drop back from winning his maiden over three furlongs further at Naas in December.

He put in some slick early jumps too, while Townend certainly wasn’t sounding the Ballymore trumpets in the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s race, stressing the gelding "showed pace today."

So what happens next with the big two from the same stable?

That all sounds very familiar and we were in a not-too-dissimilar position after Dysart Dynamo's Moscow Flyer win last year, Sir Gerhard supposedly changing targets (if that term can even be used given no decision had strictly been made) despite winning the big two-miler at the Dublin Racing Festival en route to Cheltenham.

Facile Vega is the one bound for the G1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle this time around and his performance – in victory or defeat – could prove pivotal in determining who goes where.

All eventualities remain possible, but is it really that hard to envisage Facile Vega - the second foal of six-time 2m4f Cheltenham heroine Quevega, don't forget - winning at Leopardstown in the manner of a horse well capable of handling a step up in trip?

The double now pays 70/1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair, for those still interested.

Other Mullins' novice hurdlers of note...

As has become the norm these days, Willie Mullins of course has an abundant of riches in the novice hurdle division and his Cheltenham Festival challenge certainly doesn't start and end with Facile Vega and Impaire Et Passe.

Future Champions Novice Hurdle runner-up Il Etait Temps could put himself in the Supreme picture if getting a bit closer to Facile Vega at the DRF, while Hunters Yarn and Quais De Paris are already on the periphery for the Ballymore after maiden wins at Naas and Tramore respectively.

The name on everyone's lips this week will inevitably be Gaelic Warrior, the antepost favourite for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and declared to run in Tuesday's rescheduled Munster Hurdle at Clonmel.

The timing of that race being rearranged for this week rather than last means, if successful, he would now pick up a 5lb penalty for Newbury should that be the intended target next month. He is 20/1 for the Supreme and around 6/1 for the Ballymore, which probably tells its own story, but if he ends up in the latter then it could result in recent Lawlor's Of Naas winner Champ Kiely (excuses for Grangeclare West who was reportedly coughing afterwards) being nudged towards the Albert Bartlett over three miles.

Champ Kiely does not look short of stamina and it's worth recalling Mullins' 2022 Albert Bartlett winner The Nice Guy hadn't run beyond 2m3f before stepping up at Cheltenham.

If there's one lurking in the shadows compared to some of the names mentioned above, it could be the JP McManus-owned Indiana Dream, a 15-length Fairyhouse maiden winner who still looked very raw in the closing stages of his breakthrough performance. He's entered up for the Nathaniel Lacy over 2m6f at the DRF but could well be geared more towards something suitable at Fairyhouse's Easter Festival.

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