Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

‘Very nearly an armful’ to borrow a famous quote.

The deep hole that led to the last race being delayed by half an hour only subdued the tone further at the conclusion of Cheltenham’s Trials Day already low in mood after the fractured pelvis suffered by Champion Hurdle favourite Sir Gino.

Just how much relevance the day will have on the Festival itself compared to the Dublin Racing Festival which takes place next weekend will come out in the wash in a few weeks’ time as it always does, but on the positive side I was impressed with a few performances and given all of them were backed up to some extent by the clock, I’ll highlight them as I go back through the card, fences first.

As usual, the day got under way with the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, a race with a ridiculously strong record its winners have had at the Festival in recent years.

For those readers unaware, 2018 victor Mister Whitaker defied an 8lb rise from his Timeform Novices’ Chase Handicap win to land the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase; 2019 winner Kildisart finished fourth in the Grade 1 Golden Miller and then won the big Grade 3 novice handicap at Aintree off a mark 7lb higher.

2020 winner Simply The Betts landed the Plate off a mark 9lb higher; 2022 hero Imperial Alcazar was second in the Plate off a mark 8lb higher; 2023 winner Stage Star won the Golden Miller while 2024 scorer Ginny’s Destiny finished second in the same race before 2025 winner Jagwar became another to land the Plate after defying a 7lb rise (there was no race in 2021 when the meeting was abandoned).

All that suggests the form of this year’s contest, in which Jordans Cross edged out Quebecois by a nose with Scorsese two-and-a-half lengths back in third in a 132 timefigure that was just 2lb lower than the BHA mark he raced from, should be taken very seriously, not least given the winner was having just his fourth run over fences and was unlucky not to go into the race with an unblemished record having crumpled on landing jumping the last here in November when going best.

Not only that, Quebecois, who hails from the yard that sent out Stage Star and Ginny’s Destiny, was even less experienced over fences but had shown much the better form of the pair over hurdles, giving the race a very strong look and rises of 6lb and 4lb in their respective marks are historically light, so they have to be on anyone’s Festival shortlist.

So too does the aforementioned Jagwar, who was in action in the second chase on the card, the Betfair Exchange Handicap run over the same distance as the ‘Timeform’ and who failed by only a head to see off fellow second-season chaser Donnacha in a race that was spoken about as a possible stepping stone to the Ryanair should he run out a comfortable winner.

His trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero appeared to rule out that option afterwards but, running off a mark 10lb higher from which he won the Plate last season, he looked like a much-improved horse to me and still open to further progress given how far both he and Donnacha pulled clear of the remainder from the final fence.

In the ‘Timeform’, the field was still well bunched turning for home and the two who jumped the last in front had a couple of lengths advantage over at the third horse at the time who was Jordans Cross; here, though, in a race that was contested to a mile out two seconds faster than the opener and in which the first two blistered through the last mile two seconds faster as well, so leaving a field that was just as well bunched as it had been in the Jordans Cross race for dead after the last, the performance earning Donnacha a timefigure of 135 and Jagwar, who was running off a BHA mark of 149 and conceding Donnacha 17lb, 152 which is easily a career best.

The decision to swerve the Ryanair is probably the right one and he must go to Cheltenham as one of the best handicapped horses at the meeting having seen his mark rise just 3lb for this big step forward; Donnacha also got off lightly with a 4lb rise but a look through his form suggests he might be a bit more dependent on very soft ground.

What did the Cotswold Chase teach us?

The final chase over regulation fences, the Betfair Cotswold Chase, has been won in some good figures in recent seasons with Definitly Red posting a 155 timefigure in 2018, Santini 152 timefigure in 2020 and Chantry House 144 in 2022 but the latest renewal attracted just four runners and saw the 2025 winner L’Homme Presse setting a much steadier pace than the stronger one he’d chased in 2025 with the result that he ended up finding 2024 Punchestown Champion Novice winner Spillane’s Tower, who was reverting to fences for the first time this season, too good from the final fence.

Given L’Homme Presse finished a well-beaten fourth in the 2024 Gold Cup while third-placed Grey Dawning swerved it last year in search of an easier option at Aintree (which he lost) it looks doubtful to me that this is Gold Cup winning form and possibly the happiest connections of all were those of Flooring Porter whose jumped round safely if not always fluently and is now safely qualified for the Randox Grand National for crack target trainer Gavin Cromwell.

Shantou takes big step forward

Best of the efforts on the clock over hurdles came in the Pertemps Network Cleeve Hurdle where the highly progressive Ma Shantou proved far too strong a stayer for the equally progressive Impose Toi who’d won his last three races including the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle just before Christmas.

If a criticism could be laid at the door of Impose Toi in his recent improvement - he’d also won the Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November – it was that he’d won those races first and foremost with a turn of foot but here on the long climb to the line on this stiffer course at the end of a well-run race he looked like a boxer punch drunk on the ropes gasping for air.

In contrast, the year-younger Ma Shantou, handled by Emma Lavelle who should know a top staying hurdler when she sees one, was never stronger at the line, running through it with great enthusiasm in a 141 timefigure despite covering the distance in his race to one mile out in a quicker time per furlong than any of the other hurdle races on the card and still having enough in the tank to run the final furlong under a second faster than The New Lion whose own race, the Unibet Hurdle, had developed into a sprint for home.

It’s perhaps not surprising after this impressive performance that Ma Shantou had his price for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle cut to 8/1, clearly a much more mature horse now than the one who finished seventh in the Albert Bartlett last season, with this win taking his Cheltenham record to three wins from four runs.

With Sir Gino pulled up, the Unibet Hurdle didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know about the remaining three contestants with the race not taking shape until so late and nine-year-old Timeform 136-rated Brentford Hope only a length-and-a-half behind at the line.

All the same he probably provides a better guide to the bare form than runner-up Nemean Lion who isn’t raced much at two miles these days and hasn’t won at the trip for two years, so what your post-race view of what The New Lion achieved (or didn’t) is probably influenced by pre-race expectations.

On a personal level I’m not sure he’s the two-miler his connections are convinced he is, and I wouldn’t be giving up just yet on Anzadam who will hopefully advance his credentials in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday if jockey bookings go his way.

The remaining two hurdles on the card, both Grade 2 events, were won by Maestro Conti and Kripticjim, the former sponsored by JCB a useful guide to the Triumph Hurdle itself in recent years. The 131 that the unbeaten Maestro Conti posted is higher than two of the last three winners who went on to run at the Festival achieved, and they both finished placed in the Triumph, so he’s clearly a leading contender for that race.

Best of the action from Ireland

One of the horses that Ma Shantou will most likely face in the Stayers’ Hurdle is Home By The Lee whose previous efforts in the race have seen him finish sixth, fifth, third and unseat.

That record suggests he’s probably vulnerable again not least he’s now turned eleven, but he he’d beaten 2025 Stayers’ winner Bob Olinger in both of his two races before unseating last season through no fault of his own and he looked as good as ever in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran last week, scoring in a 151 timefigure which is just shy of the career best 152 he has run on two occasions.

His best effort in the Stayers’ was when faced with very soft ground in 2024 (third to Teahupoo, with Flooring Porter second) so the weather will probably dictate his fortunes.

The winner of the feature handicap, the Grade 3 Goffs Thyestes, Now Is The Hour, will also likely be seen at the Festival but in the National Hunt Chase in which he would have been second best at worst had he not crumpled on landing after the second last. In a race run on very heavy ground, albeit not so testing as the 2024 renewal, only five of the 18 runners made it round with Now Is The Hour staying on very strongly to pip Better Times Ahead (who’d won both his previous races, including the Porterstown at Fairyhouse in November) by a head in a slow-motion finish with the pair 19 lengths clear (131 timefigure).

An 8lb rise in his Irish BHA mark to 149 isn’t insurmountable given what Haiti Couleurs, whom he was chasing when coming down last year at the Festival, has achieved since.

There was a decent card at Naas on Sunday and it saw the introduction under Rules of a horse, Love Sign D’Aunou, who ended the day as the new favourite for the Champion Bumper.

He hadn’t set the world alight in his only start in points, winning a maiden at Loughanmore in something of a bunch four-way finish from Gin Tonic who has been second in a rated novice hurdle since joining Paul Nolan, the unraced since Chapter ‘n’ Verse and Green Angel, fourth in an auction maiden hurdle on his only start for Stuart Crawford, but he scored by 24 lengths from another point winner Largy Star (won both his races last autumn) in a slow-motion finish in which all bar the winner looked legless at the finish.

A 113 rating and a 103 timefigure suggests he’s improved a good deal since being purchased privately by Rich Ricci and put into training with Willie Mullins, and he’s clearly one of the leading performers in his division albeit mindful that conditions are likely to be very different at Cheltenham than he encountered here.

More from Graeme North

• January 20 - Old Park Star impresses on clock
• January 13 - Impressed by Future Prospect
• January 7 - No Drama This End still has questions to answer

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