Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis including No Drama This End in Challow Hurdle

This week’s column concentrates on the action over the second half of the Christmas and New Year period and starts at Newbury where Paul Nicholls landed one of the races he is most closely associated with, the Challow Hurdle, for the seventh time with the horse about whom the ‘D’ word invariably crops up when discussing potential, No Drama This End.

Unbeaten in two Grade 2 races this season, the Hyde at Cheltenham in November on heavy ground and the Betfair Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown in December on soft ground where he barely came off the bridle, No Drama This End displayed a versatility to his profile not seen since his pointing debut by making all the running and at a steady pace too, unlike his previous runs over hurdles which saw him held up in midfield or worse in well-run races.

In those races he earned timefigures of 122 and 121 respectively, though his figure at Sandown could have been considerably higher had he been asked for any sort of effort in the straight; here he recorded just a lowly 98 to see off five rivals easily with notably inferior form, still going well between the last two hurdles while all bar the eventual runner-up Klimt Madrik were being rousted along for all they were worth, and only needing one tap on the run-in to maintain his advantage.

The internal sectional application at Timeform that helps inform the level of timefigures by calculating how much the timefigure might have been improved had the race been efficiently run came in at 40lb when his finishing time from three hurdles out is considered, which suggests that his combined 138 timerating more than reinforces the 137 master rating – accompanied by a large P – that he currently parades.

That’s not especially high by historical Challow standards, however, and Nicholls hasn’t had a great return at the Cheltenham Festival with his previous Newbury winners who ran there.

Even the great Denman finished second behind an Irish-trained rival in the 2006 Baring Bingham when lining up with a rating 17lb higher than No Drama This End’s current one while Bravemansgame (146 going into the same race) finished third in 2021. Ominously, perhaps, none of Stage Star, Captain Teague or Hermes Allen, all of whom showed a level of form similar to No Drama This End has so far, finished closer than sixth if they finished at all in their novice Festival targets and for all his undoubted potential history looks stacked against him.

The New Lion took the required step forward last year but he went into the Baring Bingham with a rating of 143, only just behind the best of the Irish in a race where many of the runners had plenty to find on form and were hard to fancy.

Slow tempo catches out Innocence

One horse whose reputation was dented somewhat on the same Newbury card was Act Of Innocence in the introductory hurdle, though time, of course, may show he faced a very stiff task.

Sent off long odds on to follow up his win over Sinnatra (about whom more later) in a maiden over course and distance in November that his trainer Nicky Henderson had won in recent years with Jeriko Du Reponet and Jonbon, Act Of Innocence looked unsuited by the slow tempo he set – the winning timefigure was just 88 – on ground much quicker than it had been first time out and was unable to fend off the three-year-old Minella Yoga, an expensive purchase out of the Irish academy hurdle programme, to whom he was conceding 20lb.

The winner needs to improve a fair bit more to make an impact in the Triumph in all likelihood, but the runner-up seems likely to go up in trip now as his pedigree suggests is probably the right thing to do.

What did Lossiemouth achieve at Leopardstown?

One of the recent winners of the Winter Novices’ Hurdle already mentioned was Lossiemouth and her much more talented namesake was the star attraction of Leopardstown’s final-day Christmas bonanza where she notched her 13th win under Rules when landing the December Hurdle from Brighterdaysahead who had won the contest the year before.

Then, Brighterdaysahead had run her rivals into the ground from the front, winning by thirty lengths and posting a 166 timefigure which has only been exceeded over hurdles in recent years by Constitution Hill in the Supreme, but perhaps mindful of her subsequent disappointment in the Champion Hurdle it was a different Brighterdaysahead after a lengthy absence we saw here, content to track Lossiemouth as she tracked the pace set firstly by Casheldale Lad and then by Anzadam, and then staying on all the way to the line for all Lossiemouth didn’t appear to be doing a whole lot in front.

Unsurprisingly, the fastest section all afternoon over hurdles between a mile out and four furlongs out was posted by Anzadam after Patrick Mullins gave up trying to restrain him, which shot a hole through his chances as his sectionals for the final two-furlong sections illustrate, but Lossiemouth’s own finishing sectionals weren’t outstanding either considering her timefigure was 148, 10lb lower then she posted in the Morgiana on her reappearance.

She’s still about the same price in the Champion Hurdle market she was before the race but with three Festival wins under her belt already it seems fanciful that her connections will turn down the opportunity to make it four on the trot by electing to run in the Mares’ Hurdle again instead of face off against Sir Gino.

Finishing sectionals are obviously very dependent upon the pace that precedes them but it was interesting to note that the fastest last half mile of the afternoon was run by Lynches Knock in the opening three-year-old academy hurdle, completing that section over half a second faster the next quickest, Grade 3 winner Wodhooh, while also running the fastest last two furlongs too.

Both races were steadily-run affairs (Wodhooh earned a timefigure of 108) and the academy hurdle wasn’t the easiest to assess for sure with there being no historical standards to guide ratings for this newly-introduced series, but as we saw with Minella Yoga at Newbury, it might prove unwise to take the form of such races too lightly.

Effect interesting prospect for Elliott

One horse who might have put his hat into the ring for the Champion Hurdle is El Fabiolo who made a successful return over hurdles later in the week in the NYE Hurdle at Punchestown having lost his confidence last season over fences.

Favoured by the conditions of the race, he wasn’t hard pressed to come home over eight lengths clear of Glen Kiln (whose last completed appearance saw him beaten 19 lengths by Lossiemouth in the Morgiana) after being allowed to dictate a modest pace in front with the winning timefigure just 121.

It was interesting to see the tracking data reveal that the one horse on the day over hurdles who ran the last four furlongs, as well as the last two furlongs, faster than he did was the winner of the opening three-year-old hurdle, Immediate Effect, who was continuing Gordon Elliott’s fine run over the holiday period.

He didn’t rack up the usual sequence expected of a handicapper campaigned by Sir Mark Prescott last summer but he showed useful form and attaining a similar level of over hurdles would put him on the periphery of contention for the Triumph Hurdle. Elliott won the same race with a similar type, one who’d had plenty of racing on the Flat at around a mile-and-a-quarter and a mile-and-a half, in 2021 with Pied Piper and he went on two starts later after winning at Cheltenham on Trials Day to finish third in the Triumph behind Vauban.

Matata close to best at Cheltenham

At Cheltenham on New Years Day, the headline figure was posted by Matata on his first start beyond 17 furlongs. He’s often looked very smart on his day in spite of a rather modest win record, perhaps a consequence of often being ridden hard from the front, but given a more patient ride then usual surely on account of the longer trip he forged clear from two fences out and stopped the clock passing the post in a 152 timefigure which is just 5lb shy of his best at two miles.

He’s not got a great record at the spring Festivals, finishing well held in the Top Novices’ Hurdle, the Arkle, the Maghull and the Melling Chase, so what this win means for the rest of his season remains to be seen.

One horse certainly going the right way who scored on the same card was Kabral Du Mathan, who won the Relkeel Hurdle by five-and-a half lengths (which could have been more had his rider so desired) from Jingko Blue in a 132 timefigure.

That was 13lb lower than his easy Haydock win back in November over a horse Andashan who won the handicap hurdle on the Challow Card and a literal reading of that form makes him one of the most talented hurdlers in the country and clearly good enough to win a Grade 1.

Over at Fairyhouse, Kaid D’Authie posted a smart 149, so paying a compliment to Kitzbuhel who beat him at Punchestown back in November and is clearly a much better chaser than he was a hurdler (well held in last season’s Baring Bingham, albeit taking a very wide course).

Sinnatra fascinating project for Skelton

Kabral Du Mathan’s trainer Dan Skelton also has a very useful handicapper to go to war with in the aforementioned Sinnatra.

He only ended up with three rivals to beat after a couple of withdrawals at Sandown last weekend but despite being eased right down (which he already was in the process of being when his nearest pursuer fell at the final flight) he still managed to record a 127 timefigure which was much higher than any of the other three hurdles winners on the same card, which included two handicap winners off BHA marks of 123 and 122 respectively as well as stablemate Nurse Susan who won the listed Unibet Mares’ Hurdle.

He’s since been upgraded by the BHA to 133 from 129, which might still leave him behind the Act Of Innocence who beat him by nearly three lengths at Newbury albeit 4lb ahead of Captain Hugo who had emerged the better of the pair by a length-and-a-half on their hurdling debuts and ended up running the fastest timefigure of the day at Haydock’s meeting on December 30th.

Given the prowess the Skelton’s have shown this season in campaigning their horses with targets in mind, it would be a bold punter who would commit to him coming off second best against either of those rivals should they meet on those BHA terms soon.

Saturday’s meeting at Cork revealed little of interest on the clock, though The Reverend made a promising enough start in the maiden hurdle. He was a better horse on the Flat then Immediate Effect, reaching 109 on Timeform ratings whereas other reached his ceiling early at 97, and he scored stylishly in a 112 timefigure with plenty in hand.

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