Timefigure analysis on Cheltenham Festival hopefuls Old Park Star, Mighty Park, Jonbon and more

Diamant diamond at Ayr

For those followers of the sport who take a keen interest on things on the clock, last week ended up being both eventful and informative with some very smart figures produced on an almost daily basis and I’ll begin at Ayr last Tuesday where Diamant Dore came home 17 lengths clear in the concluding bumper on heavy ground in a timefigure of 101.

That’s the second highest winning timefigure recorded in Britain this jumps season ‘proper’ in the discipline behind the 110 Bass Hunter recorded at Ascot just before Christmas, and is also the joint-highest winning figure (and fourth of 100 or more) at Ayr since Timeform started returning jumps timefigures around 10 seasons ago.

Neither of the other two among the three that ran again in bumpers managed to score again, but all went on to win over obstacles and that’s probably where Diamante Dore’s future will lie given he started off in Irish points where, backed into odds on, he fell at the last on his only start in November having caught the eye (“a striking sort”) of the Irish p2p website analyst in the paddock.

Personal best from Panic Attack

Newbury and Fairyhouse both held interesting meetings on Wednesday and it was fitting that the best timefigure at the former course was recorded by Panic Attack in the day’s feature event, the listed Mares’ Chase, coming home in a 137 figure after a 14-length win.

Despite starting at 1/4, having at least 20lb in hand of her rivals on form and winning with any amount in hand that’s still an improvement on anything she‘s done previously on time and won’t be out of place up against the best of the Irish in the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham.

Whether the most anticipated runner on Newbury’s card, the big-money purchase from France Fire Warning, will end up at the Festival remains to be seen, but he looked a useful recruit without achieving much on the clock, unsurprisingly running the fastest last four furlongs on the card over hurdles according to the tracking data at the end of a steadily-run contest in which he needed only to return a lowly 63 to score.

It was a similar scenario over at Fairyhouse where the best figure (137, career-best effort) was also recorded in the feature event, the Grade 3 Handicap Chase, by Western Diego who was winning his first race over fences at the seventh attempt but all eyes were elsewhere on the card where last season’s Champion Bumper winner Bambino Fever lined up in the mares maiden hurdle.

Allowed to set a very steady pace unchallenged in front, she hurdled fluently to my eye and had far too much class and turn of foot for the motley bunch that lined up against her, dipping under 13 seconds for the penultimate furlong on her way to an easy 12-length win in a 76 timefigure.

Her stablemates and French imports Proactif and Macho Man finished one-two on their Irish debuts in the opening four-year-old hurdle in timefigures of 127 and 123 respectively with Proactif’s last two furlongs unsurprisingly around ten lengths slower than Bambino Fever’s at the conclusion of a much more truly run race.

127 is the best timefigure by a juvenile hurdler in either Britain or Ireland this year and is the best of the Irish all season if still 3lb lower than Minella Study managed at Cheltenham at the end of 2025. This looks a wide open division and maybe not surprising in respect of the view I formed when watching nearly all the relevant French hurdle races whose principals have been sent to either here or Ireland that there wasn’t a standout among them.

Mighty effort at Fairyhouse

If there was a towering performance in either Britain or Ireland on Thursday it came at Fairyhouse where ex-pointer Mighty Park made an impressive Rules debut in a maiden hurdle. It looked significant that he was running for the first since and for the time too for J. P. McManus having finished second to a horse in his ownership, Harry Lowes, back in April last year when sent off favourite in his point and he’s clearly improved well past that horse now judged on this effort which came with a 133 timefigure, a large P and 52lb and 76lb beatings given respectively to the placed horses who had already run to Timeform ratings of 121 and 106.

Closely related to the Gold Cup winner Might Bite, the tracking data showed he ran the distance to the half mile marker getting on for five lengths a furlong on average faster than any of the hurdles on the card before being allowed to ease down in the straight with the race in safe keeping. He’s one his owner’s recently replaced retained rider Mark Walsh will surely be looking to - presumably in the Sky Bet Supreme – in March.

Henderson has an absolute Star

One of the horses he will meet there assuming there are no blips on the way for either is Old Park Star, of course, and he regained his place at the top of the betting for that race with an eighteen-length demolition of the 136-rated Hurricane Pat who once upon a time had beaten him in bumpers.

Before I get to his performance, I should say one of the occupational hazards of returning timefigures over jumps is the reliance on correct official added yardage, which is crucial to the accurate compilation of accurate figures.

Thankfully these instances are rare but there one at Haydock on Saturday when the times on the chases course were wildly out of synch - much quicker - with what would have been expected given the published added yardage. As suspected, the official yardage given out on the chase course was incorrect and all credit to Haydock Clerk Daniel Cooper for informing Timeform unprompted first thing Monday morning with a amended update that revealed the chases had been between 53 yards and 106 yards shorter than originally advertised, which suggests the shared home bend removed 78 yards off the usual chase distance per circuit while the winning post bend added 17 (the shared bend added 51 yards per circuit over hurdles and home bend 27 yards).

Hopefully in the not too distance future the tracks will provide this information as a matter of course so potential errors can be spotted well ahead of head-scratching finishing times.

So how good was Old Parks Star’s winning time in the feature hurdle, the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Hurdle? Well, Timeform hand-timed it at 3 minutes 46.9 seconds compared to Brentford Hope’s 3m 51 seconds in the handicap thirty-five minutes earlier and after making allowance for the weights carried – Brentford Hope carried 6lb more – Old Park Star emerges better on final time on the day by 25lb, no mean feat considering Brentford Hope was scoring off a BHA mark of 134 and was held up just off the leaders in a race run at an even pace that produced a race-winning finishing speed from three hurdles out of 100.5%.

In contrast, Old Park Star, who, according to the tracking data, ran the first mile an average of two lengths a furlong slower than Brentford Hope, really turned it on from half a mile out, running that final section 4.22 seconds (around 19 lengths) faster.

All that equated to a 156 timefigure, which is outstanding in the division. I wrote I this column on December 17 after his Cheltenham win that not only had he put up the best performance in that race in a decade but that he had posted the best timefigure of the season by a novice at around two miles at that point and sectional comparisons with Fortune De Mer (who won the handicap hurdle on the same card over the same distance and who was favourite for the County Hurdle before injury ruled him out) lit him up in an even more favourable light.

Hopefully some readers will have acted on that analysis and got involved at the 16/1 on offer at the time, but while I won’t be getting any further involved than I already am I’ve had a decent saver on the aforementioned Mighty Park about whom 14/1 looks too big.

Dalston Lad who was one of three Ayr bumper winners mentioned in the opening paragraph won the long-distance handicap hurdle in 124 and looks to be improving fast but Haydock’s feature chase, the Peter Marsh, saw the runners well bunched throughout behind a modest pace set by Myretown and a 102 timefigure for the gambled-on winner is confirmation of the muddling pace.

Temps makes zero appeal for Champion Chase

Down at Ascot, Jonbon continued his remarkable record of never having finished outside the first two with victory for the second successive year in the Clarence House Chase tried again in the cheekpieces he wore for the first time in the Tingle Creek.

His conqueror that day, Il Etait Temps, was never at the races on this occasion, not travelling at all well from some way out and on the floor for nearly ten minutes after a heavy fall two fences out. How he’ll fare if he makes it to Cheltenham after this near knockout is anyone’s guess but given his Festival record reads fifth in the Triumph, fifth in the Supreme and third in the Arkle I’d be looking elsewhere in the Champion Chase.

That’s not to say my preferred alternative would be Jonbon despite posting a 167 timefigure here which suggests he’s not far below the level he was a couple of season’s ago (career best 171) as his Cheltenham record is nothing to write home about either (and a sharp miles is almost certainly too short nowadays) unlike current favourite Marine Nationale who is 2-2 at Prestbury Park and currently 6/4 to make it 3-3 as his trainer Barry O’Sullivan is not tiring of telling anyone he will.

Juvenile hurdle winner Winston Junior posted a respectable 126 in the four-year-old hurdle, but the Grade 2 Warfield Mares developed into something of a burn-up with the experienced Ooh Betty proving too sharp for the novice La Conquiere (decent effort in the circumstances) in a 121 timefigure.

The other two-thirds of the Winter Million fixture held at Windsor has had to pass without any timefigures given that the course reverted to its initial figure-of-eight shape this season. Among the horse who finished in the first two placings, runner-up Altobelli was reported as having run the fastest last mile on the opening day over hurdles and Officer Of State the fastest same section over fences, while Scorpio Rising ran the fastest last mile over hurdles on the closing day and Salver earned those honours over fences.

More from Sporting Life

• Free bets
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.