Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Qatar Goodwood Festival on Friday July 30
It's day four of five at the Qatar Goodwood Festival and Matt Brocklebank fancies Without A Fight to go well in the final live ITV race.
Value Bet tips: Friday July 30
1pt win Green Book in 1.50 Goodwood at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Shelir in 3.00 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Stone Of Destiny in 3.35 Goodwood at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Without A Fight in 4.10 Goodwood at 11/1 (General)
How low can you go in Golden Mile?
Path Of Thunder won like a very well-handicapped horse at Newmarket earlier in the month and is going to take all the beating under just a 3lb penalty in Friday’s Unibet Golden Mile.
When backing favourites in big handicaps you really do want everything in place and, as well as being 5lb ahead of the assessor, he’s got a lovely draw in stall three, is versatile when it comes to underfoot conditions and his stable could hardly be in better form.
The only thing you can level at this horse is that he’s been more than a little tricky in the past and while the blinkers worn for the first time at HQ are understandably retained, there’s no guarantee they’ll have the same effect again and, in terms of course configuration, you couldn’t get a much more different track when it comes to comparing Goodwood with the July Course.
There are enough horses to take him on with but I won’t be venturing much wider than stall 10 or 11 as starting right down the hill in the high numbers is evidently a massive disadvantage – the past 10 winners of this emerged from gates 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 9, 5, 13, 8 and 1.
David O’Meara, trainer of last year’s victor Prompting has fared remarkably well with his runners taking up five of the nine lowest stalls. Progressive three-year-old Rhoscolyn is the shortest of the bunch at the time of writing and must be highly respected under Oisin Murphy but stable jockey Danny Tudhope is riding the track really well this week too and could be on the right one in SHELIR.
He’s only been with O’Meara a couple of seasons having been picked up for 70,000 euros from Dermot Weld’s and one win from 16 runs during that period doesn’t do him justice at all. He’s run some mighty races in defeat this time around, including his last two at Ayr when beaten a short-head and a head by Redarna and Marie’s Diamond respectively.
Earlier in the year he was beaten four lengths by stablemate Rhoscolyn at Epsom but was conceding him a stone there and now runs off level weights so immediately looks a little over-priced on that score.
He’s got placed form with Johan and Brunch from last season and that would give him massive claims on these terms too, while he’s obviously landed on the plum draw in stall one. He’s just fairly straightforward this horse, finds plenty for pressure despite a string of luckless placed efforts which might suggest otherwise, and promises to be perfectly suited to a prominent ride around here on what will be his debut at the course.
Good beginning, middle and end for Green Book?
GREEN BOOK is the one to be on in the equally competitive Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap.
Formerly with Brian Ellison and then trained in France, he’s only made four public appearances for current handler Venetia Williams, one of which came in a maiden hurdle at Hereford in February.
He was sent off favourite there and ran very well in second, while he’s been pretty popular in the market in major Flat handicaps at Chester (5/1) and Haydock (7/2 joint-fav) since, before being set a really stiff task in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot when last seen.
A largely unconsidered 40/1 chance for that unrestricted conditions event over the extended two miles five furlongs, Green Book more than held his own, breaking from a wide draw and racing prominently on the outside of the field. He sat on the shoulder of front-runner Stag Horn before challenging for the lead turning into the straight, eventually just running out of steam passing the two-furlong marker and ending up a one-paced fifth.
Considering he ultimately split the 108-rated Stag Horn, who held on for fourth, and 107-rated sixth Morando, he looks to have got off quite lightly with a 2lb rise in the weights to 88, and he’s still just 11lb higher than when bolting up in the Chester Plate at the May meeting.
There’s possibly a small question mark over his suitability for two and a half miles but I’m far from convinced by that and I love the fact he’s so sharp at the start of his races given they don’t use the stalls for this and track position is vitally important at Goodwood in general.
Crisford runner fresh for the Fight?
Green Book’s jockey Andrea Atzeni could also cause a stir in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes aboard WITHOUT A FIGHT.
He still has bags of potential as a late-maturing son of Teofilo and went through the grades nicely in his debut season towards the end of last summer, winning three times and finishing third behind Berkshire Rocco (rated 116 at the time) and Albaflora in a Listed race over a mile and six furlongs at Ascot.
Following an encouraging comeback second to Al Aasy in the John Porter, he ended up almost 15 lengths adrift of Albaflora at Ascot when last seen but he wasn’t disgraced and the subsequent break suggests not all was right with him there.
Even so, the form has worked out exceptionally well since, Tribal Craft, Outbox, Roberto Escobarr and Alounak all winning nice races in the interim, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Crisford horse really kick on again now fresh from an 83-day break.
He won’t mind whatever the ground is like but certainly handles a bit of cut and a good run here could push him more towards a shot at the Irish St. Leger than the Sky Bet Ebor, both of which he holds entries for.
Stone to scythe through the King George pack?
Battaash bidding for a fifth straight King George Qatar Stakes is going to attract plenty of attention but he was almost a stone below his peak 2020 form when fourth in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and I’m keen to take him on.
Suesa could be interesting if the rain hits and fellow three-year-old Dragon Symbol looks highly likely run his usual game race, but with so much speed elsewhere in the field it looks open for something to come from off the pace and sneak into the frame at huge odds.
Arecibo did just that at Ascot and he has backed up with a close second in the Group Three Coral Charge at Sandown but STONE OF DESTINY hasn’t been too far behind him on each occasion and this could be his turn to run a big one.
He’s always ridden for luck and has often paid the price with some eyecatching efforts in big-field handicaps over the years, but he might just get the ideal set-up here from stall four, with Art Power and Battaash on his inside in one and three respectively, and Liberty Beach the other side in stall six.
Ornate – another real speedster - breaks from stall 10 so the field is likely to converge more towards the middle of the track, which could leave Jamie Spencer a little isolated on Arecibo (12) towards the stands’ side.
They’ll have to go pretty hard early on to bring a horse like Stone Of Destiny into the mix but he would have finished right on the premises with anything like a clear run at Sandown and, like plenty of others from the Andrew Balding yard, is seemingly operating at the top of his game this season.
With Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill all 40/1 four places, I’m willing to chance him each-way there rather than snaffle the spot of 66s just three places with bet365.
Published at 1500 BST on 28/07/21
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