Value tips: Sandown & Haydock best bets preview for major Saturday handicaps
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 3
1pt win Count D’orsay in 1.50 Sandown at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Auriferous in 2.05 Haydock at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Alpine Stroll in 2.05 Haydock at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Marie’s Diamond in 2.25 Sandown at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Win O’Clock in 3.15 Haydock at 16/1 (bet365)
Mishriff the one with target on his back
Any remaining chance of finding a proper punting angle into Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse was extinguished at the final declaration stage on Thursday morning, when just four horses were left to stand their ground.
It’s still hardly a simple race to call but with El Drama a world away from the required level on what we’ve seen thus far, we’re looking at a three-horse race in essence and there’s next to no appeal in getting stuck into St Mark’s Basilica despite him getting 10lb from the well-travelled older pair, Addeybb and Mishriff.
Mishriff only has a maiden and a Listed win to his name in this country so arguably has a score to settle there but it’s a small world these days and, after Group One scores in France, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Dubai, there are no excuses for not knowing just how effective and adaptable this classy four-year-old is by now. He could try to make all here in which case it'll take a very good performance to go by him.
On top of that, the Gosden juggernaut has really been going through the gears again over the past couple of weeks and, all things considered, it’ll take a brave punter to oppose the Saudi Cup and Sheema Classic winner fresh from his spring break.
Belated handicap newcomer of real interest
The Eclipse should be absorbing but I’d much rather take the prices available about El Drama’s jockey, Andrea Atzeni, winning the Coral Challenge for Mark Johnston aboard 12/1 shot MARIE’S DIAMOND.
Quite remarkable to think this is his first run in a handicap given he’s been such a household name for several seasons now (in a Flat racing sense, at least) and the stable’s overarching MO, but here we are with the five-year-old - handicapping for the very first time from what looks a perfectly palatable mark of 105.
He was rated 108 at the start of 2019 and has spent the best part of three years lingering between 103 and 113, his last career win a bludgeoning display from the front end under Silvestre De Sousa in a mile Listed contest at Newmarket last June.
He’s mainly competed at Group level in the intervening period and has been far from disgraced at times, but last month’s Epsom run (Listed) smacked of a horse becoming slightly weary of meeting largely superior rivals off level weights.
Given his aggressive, diehard run-style and ability to handle all types of ground it’s surprising it has taken so long to slot him into a race of this nature but he’s not out of place here at all given Montatham is rated 109, with six others running off 100+ marks as well.
There’s often a fine line between pattern-class performers and major handicap winners at the height of summer when the prizemoney is (a little) more attractive, and everything looks in place for Marie’s Diamond bar the wide draw in stall 13.
No escaping that’s a potential issue but the glaring counter-argument, in addition to the fact you’re already being compensated by his price, is that the pace elsewhere looks relatively sedate, the selection’s stable companion Maydanny (14) most likely the one to be giving him a hard time if Atzeni is able to bounce out and sit at the head of affairs early on.
I’m far from convinced Maydanny is well-handicapped from a perch of 100 anyway but Marie’s Diamond is clearly fairly treated at present and it’s not hard to see his first ever visit to Sandown resulting in a positive showing as prominent racers have always done well at the track.
Count on another Yorkshire raider to go well
Tim Easterby isn’t one to tilt at windmills and he could be rewarded for having a shot at the Coral Charge with COUNT D’ORSAY, who also handles cut underfoot and is another putting that blurred line between handicapper and Group horse to the test at Sandown this weekend.
Easterby has done a pretty amazing job with him since picking the horse up from Charles O’Brien rated just 76 and he’s looked about as good as ever when on song this season.
The better efforts have been interspersed with some moderate runs too but he’s been a bit unlucky at Haydock and Newcastle most recently. Last Friday he got a significant bump as soon as he left the stalls and his Gosforth Park Cup hopes effectively went up in smoke.
He did stay on nicely to be beaten just two lengths by Caspian Prince in the end, though, and that showed the five-year-old was still thriving after his unfortunate-not-to-be-closer third (denied a run) to King’s Lynn on good to soft going in the Achilles Stakes.
King’s Stand runner-up Arecibo is the real stumbling block in this line-up but it’s not hard to see him getting into some sort of trouble from stall seven under Jamie Spencer, while 112-rated Lazuli carries a penalty which is never easy to shrug off in Group Three sprints. The Godolphin runner is also untried on soft ground so the forecast heavy showers may be a negative for his claims, though he is by Dubawi so should be fine in theory.
Aside from that pair it looks an open heat and while Count D’orsay’s typical hold-up style probably won’t do in this scenario, it’s worth pointing out he’s shown versatility in that regard in the past and should get a great pitch from stall two if able to break on terms.
He’s worth a bet in this company at 12s and bigger.
Take two in staying test at Haydock
The ground at Haydock is holding up well (good, good to firm in places) at the time of writing but that could all change with some bad weather expected in the north west and I want horses onside who are proven with at least a bit of cut.
The bet365 Handicap has been won by subsequent Chester Cup winner Making Miracles and St Leger runner-up Sir Ron Priestley in recent years so stamina is clearly going to be a key asset. Their trainer Mark Johnston has three in the field this time – Kondo Isami, Soapy Stevens and Harlem Soul – but Andrew Balding’s AURIFEROUS is more attractively priced.
He’s yet to win anything from six attempts but hasn’t been faced with this kind of set-up before, more specifically a mile and three-quarters, in a handicap, with some ease underfoot (providing the weather plays ball).
He’s had an official rating since his promising comeback second over 10 furlongs at Kempton but connections have tried to get a maiden/novice win on the board first (before going handicapping) and he’s gone down fighting on each occasion in fairness.
Beaten a neck at Salisbury on quick ground last time, he was probably more unfortunate not to get off the mark when second behind the enterprisingly-ridden Skytree at Thirsk (soft) in mid-May, and on that evidence he’s going to love this kind of test in what should be a more truly-run affair.
His Kempton conqueror from earlier in the year, Otyrar, has gone on to be second to Contact (who runs here) and Royal Ascot winner Surefire, so his form overall stands up to close scrutiny and slipping into this with a low weight under Hayley Turner (3-17 for the yard this year) looks the perfect time to get behind the son of Golden Horn financially.
The other one to be on at big prices in the same race is Nathaniel colt ALPINE STROLL.
He had the misfortune of bumping into Derby winner Adayar in a Nottingham maiden on his sole start at two and, on paper, he’s starting to look relatively exposed now after six runs this term, four of which have come in handicaps.
He’s had a few excuses though, including not looking as happy on fast ground at Doncaster on his one start over this extended trip, while there was a lot to like about his neck second from the front under Elisha Whittington at Salisbury last time.
That came over a mile and a half and a step back up at Haydock will definitely suit Ed De Giles' runner, as will any rain that falls, and although a small (2lb) rise in the ratings looks harsh on the face of it, I don’t think he lost much in defeat at all 10 days ago.
Stall three and another prominent ride should see him to good effect here so backing both the maidens in the line-up is the way I’ll approach the race.
About time he wins again…
The bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap is the big betting race on the card at Haydock and half of the last 10 winners have returned double-figure SPs.
It’s a tightly-knit contest with just a stone covering the whole field of 17 (barring the reverses getting in) and the margins could be fine. With that in mind, it's easy to be drawn to WIN O’CLOCK, who has the benefit of Thomas Greatrex’s 3lb claim for the first time this season.
Greatrex – who struck up a great relationship with the Australia colt in 2020 – was on board for his seasonal reappearance run but wasn’t able to claim as it was the Listed Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham, since when Win O’Clock has been ridden by James Doyle at York and William Buick at Royal Ascot.
He put up a really solid effort on the Knavesmire, not done too many favours by eventual runner-up Raymond Tusk late on but admittedly well held in fourth, before looking even more unfortunate in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal meeting.
Raymond Tusk was second in that off 3lb higher so Roger Charlton’s horse shouldn’t have been too far away but the door closed when looking to build some momentum in the straight and Buick sensibly looked after him close home, especially given the really taxing conditions.
He’s been dropped another 1lb so runs off 102 here, just 2lb higher than when rounding off last season in the best possible fashion at Chelmsford, and the Greatrex booking helps in that regard too, as already stated.
With a fantastic 4-9 strike-rate in turf handicaps (good to soft x3, heavy x1) there’s a lot to be said for giving him another chance this weekend and, together with the low draw in stall four and the fact Charlton’s horses are generally in cracking form right now, the price looks a touch too big.
Published at 1500 BST on 02/07/21
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