Best horse racing tips: Newmarket & York Value Bet preview for July Festival on Friday July 9
Value Bet tips: Friday July 9
1pt win King Of Clubs in 1.50 Newmarket at 17/2 (General)
1pt win Ventura Diamond in 2.40 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Lostwithiel in 3.00 Newmarket at 14/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Champers Elysees in 3.35 Newmarket at 20/1 (BetVictor)
Oisin Murphy is battling the scales at Newmarket this week in his bid reassert some sort of control in his quest for a third jockeys’ title and although it didn't quite work out for Popmaster when third on Thursday, it looks significant he is down at his minimum weight again for KING OF CLUBS in Friday’s bet365 Handicap.
Murphy was on board for this colt’s sole career success to date – a ready victory at cramped odds in a Nottingham maiden (good to soft) on May 18 – but Ryan Moore took the reins for the first time when narrowly beaten on handicap debut over a mile and one furlong at Sandown last month.
Given his time again, Moore may have wished to stoke the son of Intello up a little earlier but in the end he was far from disgraced, just failing to concede 5lb to Andrew Balding’s quietly progressive Dejame Paso.
That wasn’t the first time this horse has been flashing home late to fill the runner-up spot, having gone down a short-head to Sir Rumi (the pair almost four lengths clear) in a novice event at Nottingham earlier in the spring.
Sir Rumi is now rated 94 having won again in a Haydock handicap so a revised mark of 86 remains perfectly fair for King Of Clubs and stepping back up to 10 furlongs for the first time on turf will clearly suit. He was only fifth of seven when first tried over the trip at Lingfield in January but is readily excused as he was stuck down on the inside which didn’t look the place to be at that fixture.
He’s a stronger, more mature model now anyway and, in keeping with his pedigree (half-brothers Garden Oasis and Royal Mews both win over 10 furlongs), looks open to plenty more improvement granted a true pace to chase on a galloping track.
Timeform called the ground good at Sandown last time (officially good to firm) but it was genuinely quick at Nottingham so while the forecast (light) showers would probably be more than welcome in this instance, fast, top-of-the-ground conditions clearly hold no fears either.
Murphy is almost undeniably on the one to beat in the day two highlight as Alcohol Free looks to back up her tenacious Coronation Stakes success in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes.
She and runner-up Snow Lantern presumably endured hard enough races given the ground had completely gone by the Friday of Ascot week, however, and I’m drawn to the two older fillies with Group One form to their names.
Lady Bowthorpe looked to find the good to firm going on day two of the Royal meeting just a little too lively for her when second behind the reopposing Indie Angel in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, but her previous Lockinge run really stands out in this company and if more rain than anticipated happens to materialise for the daughter of Nathaniel then she’s unlikely to remain a 7/1 shot for long.
However, at 20/1 I can’t let CHAMPERS ELYSEES go unbacked.
Johnny Murtagh has his team in brilliant form right now, which wasn’t the case earlier in the year when his star filly from last term made her first couple of 2021 appearances on home soil.
She showed a lot more of her sparkle when fourth under a penalty in the Duke Of Cambridge last time, finishing just out of the places after a really fast start and initially racing with the choke out before Ben Coen restrained her.
She’s 5lb better off with Indie Angel and also running on 2lb better terms with Lady Bowthorpe here so if she continues to grow into the campaign, as she did en route to winning the top-class Matron Stakes on Irish Champions Weekend last September, she could be a genuine threat to them all.
Flashy three-year-olds often take up the more prominent spots in the betting for the Falmouth but four-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals and Champers Elysees is definitely the one being most overlooked.
LOSTWITHIEL didn’t get home in the Ascot Stakes and is well worth another chance off his current mark in the bet365 Trophy.
The marathon handicap over two and a half miles at Royal Ascot is a bit of an acquired taste and George Boughey’s horse didn’t do a huge amount wrong despite only beating four home.
In fact, he tanked away quite nicely under Hollie Doyle in midfield and was still seemingly in with every chance until the two-furlong pole. He was apparently on the retreat before being squeezed up between rivals but the way he’d gone before then suggested he was well worth another chance in a slightly more conventional contest.
The previous half-length second over this mile and three-quarter trip on the Rowley Mile reads particularly well as he split the reopposing Global Storm (third to Amtiyaz in the Copper Horse Stakes since) and subsequent Northumberland Vase winner Zeeband.
Lostwithiel, 4lb better off with Global Storm on these terms, also receives a favourable 4lb swing with Hochfeld having been beaten a length by Mark Johnston’s solid yardstick at Hamilton in early-May.
There’s a case for him being favourite and he might well be were he coming here fresh from Newmarket but I can excuse any young horse a lesser effort in the Ascot Stakes and providing that whole experience hasn’t taken the gloss off him, a big run looks assured.
The best bet at York comes in the Group Three William Hill Summer Stakes, in which most of the field has some sort of question to answer at present.
Things could fall perfectly for Jersey Stakes third Vadream as she drops back to sprinting for the first time since her (winning) debut over six furlongs at Newcastle in November but at four times the price a case can be made for VENTURA DIAMOND offering significantly better value.
She was a Listed winner at the end of her productive juvenile campaign but she’s not ‘just’ a two-year-old based on a couple of efforts this time around, while the run at Musselburgh last time was far too bad to be true – jockey Paul Hanagan suggested she’d effectively lost her action on the sharp turn into the straight.
She was only beaten a couple of lengths when conceding Light Refrain 3lb at Nottingham earlier in the year and they reoppose on level terms here.
Trainer Richard Fahey has really picked up in the intervening month since we last saw Ventura Diamond and it would come as no surprise at all to see her consign that effort firmly to the past by immediately bouncing back to form.
If she’s at her peak again, on ground that will play to her strengths, she shouldn’t be such a big price in what is a Listed race in all but name.
Published at 1530 BST on 08/07/21
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