Free racing betting tips: Value Bet preview for Challow Hurdle day at Newbury
Matt Brocklebank has two big-priced fancies at Newbury on Tuesday as our man looks to sign off for 2020 with a flourish.
Racing betting tips: Tuesday, December 29
1pt win Rockpoint in 1.30 Newbury at 14/1
1pt win Django Django in 2.40 Newbury at 20/1
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It’s hoped the Mansionbet Challow Novices’ Hurdle card at Newbury beats the weather (threat of frost) as there are some seriously promising horses lined up to tough it out in the Berkshire mud.
The Grade One feature brings together Paul Nicholls’ Bravemansgame – so impressive in victory here last month – and the Evan Williams-trained, Sandown Grade Two scorer Star Gate.
They both handle testing ground especially well by the looks of things which isn’t necessarily the case with Kim Bailey’s dual Cheltenham winner Does He Know, who was beaten on his only previous outing on ground described as soft.
It’s not a race I’ll be having a bet in, and nor is the Mansionbet’s Watch And Bet Handicap Hurdle, though International Hurdle fancy Ch’tibello has to be of interest back up in trip and down in class.
Severano – favourite for the MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase - looked at least one step ahead of the handicapper when bolting up at Exeter, but the race did fall apart somewhat and he’s not been missed following reassessment, going up 9lb to 148.
He could win, and win well, but I’m going to take him on with outsider ROCKPOINT (14/1 General) despite the sketchy form of Colin Tizzard’s horses in general.
He’s obviously not been the easiest to deal with and refused to race when last seen on a racecourse at Cheltenham 12 months ago. That came on the back of quite a promising second behind Wholestone at the same track and that’s not the only piece of really smart form which brings him into the equation in a race of this nature.
He was a gambled-on second behind Vive Le Roi over three miles at Newbury in November 2018, after which he went to Cheltenham and beat last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar in the Grade Two Albert Bartlett trial.
Things have gone awry for the horse since then but he’s only seven, has very few miles on the clock overall and clearly possesses untapped potential in this code after just three chase starts.
He filled the runner-up spot a couple of times after breaks in his youth, too, so first time back might not be a bad time to catch him and he’s definitely competitively treated from a mark of 133 on the pick of his efforts.
Jonjo O’Neill’s DJANGO DJANGO (20/1 General) won on heavy going at Newbury last January having pulled-up on his previous start, and might be able to repeat the trick in the Mansionbet’s Best Odds Guaranteed Mandarin Handicap Chase.
A giant son of Voix Du Nord, he’s built for a serious test of stamina on a flat, galloping course like this and he clearly hated his first trip to Bangor (much sharper in nature) when never really travelling before Jonjo Jr decided to call it a day.
Interestingly, the handicapper has left him alone on 135 following that effort and I’m inclined to agree that it shouldn’t be read as a sign of some sort of decline.
He’d been well held in a red-hot Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot on his seasonal debut at the end of October, but he was always going to take a run or two to reach peak fitness and I suspect we’ll only see the real Django Django in the depths of winter.
Last year’s victory at the same venue worked out really nicely with second, Notachance, winning well in the aforementioned Bangor race and third home, Le Boizelo, also winning on his very next at Wincanton in March. And Django Django is now only 5lb higher in the ratings.
The Mandarin looks tailor-made for this horse and it screams big-priced winner as I’m not overly concerned about Venetia Williams’ progressive market leader Cuban Pete, who has done all of his winning on sharp tracks, three of which have come right-handed at Hereford.
The top-class racing continues at Leopardstown, where the closest I came to a bet on Tuesday was Saldier at double-figure prices in the Matheson Hurdle.
He's rated a fraction higher than last year's leading Irish novices Abacadabras and Saint Roi and still retains a fair chunk of potential himself.
Whether or not all the ability is still intact, or he's fully tuned up after 409 days off, is another matter entirely and I can just about let him go unbacked, with Paul Townend in the saddle of no real significance given Patrick Mullins' long association with stablemate Sharjah.
Published at 1500 GMT on 28/12/20
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