Best horse racing tips for Newbury: Value Bet preview for Super Sprint day, Saturday July 17
Matt Brocklebank has two selections for Saturday's ITV action at Newbury, including Delmona in the Weatherbys Super Sprint.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 17
1pt win Majestic Dawn in 1.50 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Lucky Deal in 2.25 Newbury at 33/1 (General)
1pt win Delmona in 3.40 Newbury at 11/1 (General)
Paul Hanagan described himself as simply being "a passenger" the last time he rode MAJESTIC DAWN in public and at the prices it’s worth backing the reunited duo to go through the gears again at Newbury on Saturday.
Firstly, the 10-furlong bet365 Stakes, which sees Paul and Oliver Cole’s charge make his second start of the campaign, seems a suitable race in which to take bit of a flier given market principal Real World’s Royal Hunt Cup win looks increasingly freakish the more you revisit it.
Granted, the three-year-olds are dangerous (three winners of this race from the Classic generation in the past decade) but Movin Time and Derab have to bounce back having not quite come up to scratch in the Hampton Court and Prix du Jockey Club respectively when last seen.
The other older horses are certainly capable but don’t hold many secrets and it could be tough for Solid Stone and Stormy Antarctic in particular as they have 3lb penalties to contend with.
Majestic Dawn, on the other hand, is still quite lightly-raced for one his age and it’s pretty clear he’s produced the best form of his life on his two most recent starts.
The first of them saw him win in brilliant style from a really prominent position under the aforementioned Hanagan in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, after which he had a winter break before resuming last month and effectively matching the HQ level of performance when third under a big weight over a mile at Windsor.
He was conceding over a stone to favourite and eventual runner-up Epic Endeavour that day so perhaps his handicap days are now over but he has every right to be trying his hand at Listed level and stepping back up in trip will suit here.
He didn’t stay a mile and a half when trying it as a three-year-old but evidently gets this far well enough, highlighted by his 10-furlong Nottingham win on heavy going towards the end of 2019.
He only raced twice last year so seemingly hasn’t been the easiest to train but it looks like he usually takes a run to blow away the cobwebs – he's won second time out following a break of 50 days or more on three separate occasions through his career, which helps shine an even more positive light on the recent reappearance effort.
Majestic Dawn has very little to find with the very best of these on adjusted figures and is still open to a bit more improvement in blinkers having only his third run in the headgear this weekend.
Hanagan back in the saddle can only be deemed a plus too and if he can get out quickly enough from stall nine then Timeform’s pace map shows he’s the only real confirmed front-runner in the field so could be well set to dominate.
There are at least a handful of genuine blazers in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes which doesn’t often crown a champion but last year’s winner did go on to double up at York before beating Alcohol Free in the Group Three Dick Poole at Salisbury.
There are two standouts this term – Chipotle and Vintage Clarets – who each thoroughly deserve their triple-figure BHA ratings, with Richard Fahey’s colt, third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, seemingly best off at the weights getting 3lb from the Windsor Castle winner.
Both will appreciate fast ground over the minimum trip but they’ve also had four starts each already so are unlikely to take massive jumps forward from what is already in black and white in the form book.
That’s not the case when it comes to Richard Hannon’s Gubbass and the twice-raced filly DELMONA, with whom trainer Tom Dascombe is surely only just scratching the surface.
A £44,000 daughter of Dandy Man, Delmona’s sister Kentish Waltz won two of her first three starts (unplaced when brought over to York for the Marygate after the ground turned soft in between the victories in France) and she has clearly inherited a good chunk of the family speed.
It was there for all to see when, despite a sloppy break from the stalls, she burst down the outside to make a winning debut on firm ground at Bath on June 12, since when she was fifth in Listed company at Newmarket last month.
On reflection, there’s an overriding feeling Delmona’s effort on the day was seriously underrated as she overcame a little trouble in running (broke better this time which is encouraging) two furlongs out to just about take the lead passing the furlong marker.
The sixth and final furlong on the steep climb to the line on the July Course may well have ultimately caught her out as she lost a couple of places very close home but it was a really good try in what looks a warm race in hindsight, the second Desert Dreamer going on to fill the same spot in the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes behind Sandrine at the big meeting there last week.
Delmona may not be among the quickest through the first couple of furlongs this weekend but she looks likely to be finishing as well as anything back over five furlongs on drying ground and from stall 18 she should be among the right horses with Chipotle starting just two gates away in 20 and Vintage Clarets highest of all in 22.
Elsewhere on the card, Ready To Venture looks a potentially very well-treated filly back over mile in the Whitsbury Manor Stud Supporting The British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap and anything north of 3/1 about the well-bred daughter of Kingman is likely to look good business come the off.
But I’d rather take the 33s about LUCKY DEAL bouncing back to form earlier on in the Bahrain Turf Series Handicap.
He’s hardly a model of consistency and slow starts continue to be a bit of an issue but he’s not had the luck of the draw lately, having to come from stall 16 in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and 20 in the Northumberland Plate last time.
Before that he had stall six in the Chester Cup but didn’t look in love with the place on his previous visit to the Roodee either and a more expansive, flat track like Newbury should be far more his bag.
He actually had a pretty good time of things on the all-weather during the winter into the spring this time around, winning twice and finishing on the heels of rivals rated 106 and 102 when third in Lingfield’s Marathon on All-Weather Championships Finals day.
He’s not been in the same form since, barring a respectable sixth over this course and distance on his return to turf in mid-April, but the assessor is relenting a bit and, having won his last four handicaps (all over two miles-plus) from marks of 91, 98, 96 and 98, he’s suddenly of interest again having slipped back to that last figure.
The application of a first-time visor and Hollie Doyle getting the call-up (2-8 for the yard this year), together with a handy enough position in stall five, all add up to a possible resurgence and the wild price certainly merits a small interest.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/07/21
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