Free racing betting tips: Value Bet preview for Musselburgh, Leopardstown & Sandown
Matt Brocklebank looks to unearth more big-priced winners including a Phil Kirby-trained runner who looks set to outrun his odds at Musselburgh.
Racing betting tips: Saturday, February 6
1pt win Newtown Boy in 2.05 Musselburgh at 13/2
1pt win Colorado Doc in 2.55 Sandown at 25/1
1pt win Little Bruce in 3.45 Musselburgh at 20/1
1pt e.w. Tiger Tap Tap in 3.50 Leopardstown at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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Who can be National hero in Scotland?
LITTLE BRUCE (20/1 General) was sent off joint-favourite when fourth in last year’s bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase at Musselburgh and seems over-priced as he returns for another shot at it off a 2lb lower mark on Saturday.
His current campaign hasn’t got going yet but there are extenuating circumstances – he was rusty when returning over hurdles at Hexham in October, then competed from a long way out of the handicap in Cheltenham’s Cross County Chase at the November meeting, before a Jumpers’ Bumper spin at Newcastle 17 days ago.
That all-weather event over two miles would never have suited him (was sent off 40/1 in fairness) but it may have served as a timely prep for this weekend’s race, which trainer Phil Kirby was apparently aiming at from a long way out last season.
In the end Kirby couldn’t resist running Little Bruce in Catterick’s North Yorkshire Grand National and he duly went and won as 15/8 favourite in typically dogged fashion, but on reflection it could have taken the edge off him before Musselburgh.
He should be much fresher on this occasion and I really like his claims off just a 4lb higher mark than that Catterick success last January.
The horse could also get his own way out in front. He was pestered for the lead in last year’s edition and ultimately faded late on, but may only have Saint Xavier for company at the head of affairs this time around.
That rival isn’t badly handicapped but he isn’t a reliable sort at the best of times either and now goes with blinkers instead of a visor, so it’s hard to gauge quite what to expect. Hopefully, Little Bruce can emerge on top in that early, mini-battle which might get him a fair way to winning the war.
NEWTOWN BOY (13/2 Hills, BetVictor) wasn’t in the same league as Navajo Pass here last month but there's no disgrace in that with the winner going on to claim Grade Two honours over Buveur D'Air and Ballyandy at Haydock and, having since won a Jumpers’ Bumper himself, now looks a good bet to follow up in the bet365 Scottish County Hurdle.
Keith Dalgleish’s charge hasn’t won over two miles for a while but he showed plenty of dash to beat a fairly nippy ex-Flat horse in Swaffham Bulbeck in a slowly-run affair at Newcastle, and he just looks on really good terms with himself again at the moment.
He has some quality form from his younger days when with Alan King as a novice, including a defeat of Rouge Vif and a second to Esprit Du Large, and he’ll be fine whatever the weather cooks up overnight, which isn’t necessarily the case with some of his rivals.
As a thriving eight-year-old with the chance of a bit more improvement to come, he looks underestimated.
What are the best bets at Sandown?
Sandown’s all-chase contingency plan got the green light (pending a further raceday morning inspection) on Friday afternoon and there are some cracking races in store, though not many appeal greatly from a betting perspective.
Native River has never been to Sandown before which is surprising but he should be made for the place on such horrible ground and he could take some pegging back in the Virgin Bet Cotswold Chase, while the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase features a really classy line-up.
The obvious one who could be too big in the betting is Sporting John, who was as good as any of these as a novice hurdler. To flesh that out briefly, he was 5/1 for the Ballymore at Cheltenham last March where he ended up finishing seventh, a place behind Shan Blue, who was a totally unconsidered 100/1 shot on that occasion.
They’re 5/2 favourite and 11/1 the opposite way around on Saturday but you can certainly see why based on their chase efforts to date, as well as their respective trainers’ form this season too.
The only bet I’ll be having is a bit of a rehash from Ascot last month where COLORADO DOC (25/1 General) was hampered and tipped up at the first fence.
At least, I’m reliably informed he was hampered – one of the on-course ambulances obscures the view on all replays I can lay my eyes on, but he didn’t get over it, that much is clear.
Given he was 25/1 there in a red-hot race eventually fought out by Dashel Drasher, Bennys King and Jerrysback, he’s got to be of interest at a similar price in this marginally weaker contest where the early pace shouldn’t be quite so hot.
Evander looks the obvious one to take them along but hopefully Colorado Doc can break more on terms this time and get into a reasonable position as I’m still keen to find out if he’s got something in hand from the assessor.
A mark of 134 looks a bit of a guess-up for the 10-time point-to-point winner and, without wanting to repeat everything I stated last time he ran, the 10-year-old can be excused his Newbury comeback having seemingly done some damage four out, after which he was pulled-up sharply.
So he’s not been blessed with great fortune but his resounding Plumpton success last February has stuck in the memory and at least we’re being well compensated in the market for his travails so far this year. He’s worth a dart win-only.
Where is the value at Leopardstown?
Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival gets off to a flier and there’s clearly a considerable buzz around Gaillard Du Mesnil in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors ‘50k Cheltenham Bonus For Stable Staff’ Novice Hurdle.
He was dead impressive over two furlongs shorter at Christmas but does look a skinny price now as a maiden winner taking on some fair sorts with solid enough credentials.
Having put up his stablemate Ganapathi for the Sky Bet Supreme and Jessica Harrington’s Ashdale Bob to win any race at Cheltenham antepost, that’s obviously a race I’ll be watching closely, but it could be worth waiting for the Ladbrokes Hurdle for a bet where Willie Mullins’ TIGER TAP TAP is a huge price at 28/1 (General).
The trainer has some more obvious runners in here higher up the weights but Tiger Tap Tap looks to be finding his level in handicaps now having not made the grade in some decent races as a novice last season.
He wound up being well beaten in the County Hurdle at the Festival and wasn’t much better in a couple of runs back on the Flat, but he wasn’t disgraced returned to jumping at Galway and, after five months off, resumed with a pleasing effort at Leopardstown over Christmas.
The handicapper has left him alone on 132 which may look a bit harsh at face value but he came from a near-impossible position (as he had done at Galway too) and effectively did his running trying to make up loads of ground between the final two flights.
His effort petered out a bit after the last but it was quite an eyecatching run and it’d be nice to see him placed more mid-division than anchored right out the back for once. He’s still got time on his side this horse and there’s enough to merit an each-way interest with six places on offer just about across the board.
Published at 1700 GMT on 05/02/21
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