Cheltenham Festival 2021 tips: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle antepost betting preview
Matt Brocklebank heads into the specials market for his latest long-range Cheltenham Festival preview, with a weekend Leopardstown runner fancied to enhance his claims.
Racing betting tips: Cheltenham Festival antepost
1pt Ashdale Bob to win any race at the Cheltenham Festival at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
What unfolds at the Dublin Racing Festival is going to see some of the Cheltenham markets turned inside out and attempting to get a springer on side ahead of the weekend is as challenging as it is tempting.
The potential value on offer is too rewarding to resist, though in this instance I’m going to play it relatively cautious and head for the ‘to win any race at the Cheltenham Festival’ betting when it comes to a certain novice.
ASHDALE BOB is entered in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices’ next month and while bet365 dangle the carrot of 25/1 in each individual race, Jessica Harrington’s horse is generally much shorter (16/1, as short as 12s) for the three-mile contest.
The Albert Bartlett would certainly seem like the more suitable fit, at this stage at least.
He’s an experienced, second-season novice – something which should stand him in good stead if taking on the rigours of one of the most gruelling Festival races – and he has obviously always been considered a stayer in the making having started out over two and a half and tackled two and three-quarter miles on just his third public appearance.
Those first trio of starts gave off mixed messages, shaping really well when a staying-on third to Blue Sari first time up at Punchestown before effectively matched the form when third behind Tiger Tap Tap at Naas last December.
Then came the regression – a pretty miserable fifth in a Fairyhouse maiden when sent off the 11/10 favourite, but the subsequent layoff hints not all was right with him there and he’s resumed this season looking much more the finished article.
This may strike readers as completely counter-intuitive concerning a horse who fell on his most recent appearance, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a novice jump as well this campaign as Ashdale Bob did in two Navan runs during November (beat Gordon Elliott’s subsequent Leopardstown maiden winner Wide Receiver) and December (beat Gordon Elliott’s previous Grade Three Navan winner Fakiera).
He’s so quick from one side to the other he wastes very little time or energy at the obstacles, and was particularly impressive when scoring by six lengths in the Grade Two recently won by the likes of Boston Bob, No More Heroes and Latest Exhibition.
They were all placed in the Albert Bartlett later in the same season, while other winners include Death Duty and Briar Hill who were sent off 13/8 and 2/1 respectively for the same Cheltenham race but failed to complete.
Pont Alexandre and Next Destination, winners of Navan’s BetVictor Make Your Best Bet Novice Hurdle in 2012 and 2017, were later placed in the Ballymore, so it’s always a race to take seriously and Ashdale Bob was a worthy, clear-cut winner despite being largely unconsidered at 14/1.
The early fall in last month’s Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle is hard to fathom, but he basically took off two strides too soon and had little chance of landing safely. It looked a serious case of loss of concentration, rather than a deeper, technical issue, which I’m happy to forgive considering how well he’d been faring in that department previously.
This weekend’s race looks packed with quality and potential but I’m convinced we’ve still yet to see the best of Ashdale Bob, who wouldn’t be out of place at all with a mere repeat of what he did at Navan.
If he ends up beating Gaillard Du Mesnil, Stattler and Cape Gentleman then no doubt connections will have a serious decision to make going forward, but even if he runs well in defeat the Albert Bartlett should remain a viable option and he’ll be open to further improvement over three miles on better ground in six weeks’ time.
He’ll have had seven starts over hurdles by that stage and will, at the very least, hopefully have put last month’s aberration firmly behind him.
Two to consider at much bigger prices in the Albert Bartlett are Torygraph (25/1 Betfred) and Make Me A Believer (40/1 bet365), though both are likely to end up with a multitude of handicap options at the Festival.
The Gigginstown-owned five-year-old Torygraph has been given an entry in this weekend's Pertemps Qualifier at Musselburgh and connections can't have been too displeased with a mark of 137, a fairly customary rise of 5lb from his attractive-looking Irish rating.
As for David Pipe's Make Me A Believer, he stuck on very well when third to Adrimel in the Leamington Novices' Hurdle at Warwick which has thrown up subsequent Festival winners The New One and Willoughby Court in the past decade.
Make Me A Believer was a gutsy winner over two miles, one furlong at Cheltenham before Christmas and that course experience won't be lost on him wherever he pitches up. If he does line up in the Albert Bartlett then he won't disgrace himself but he's too much of a risk at this point.
Published at 1600 GMT on 03/02/21
More Cheltenham Festival previews & tips
Matt is assessing the 2021 Cheltenham Festival markets and will be publishing his antepost previews in the build-up to the big meeting over the coming weeks. Click here or on the image below for the full schedule.
Already advised...
Wednesday January 27
Wednesday January 20
Wednesday January 13
Wednesday January 6
Monday November 16
Wednesday November 25
Wednesday December 23
Wednesday December 16
- 1.5pt win Ronald Pump in Stayers’ Hurdle at 20/1 & 0.5pts win Honest Vic in Stayers’ Hurdle at 100/1
Wednesday December 9
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