Midlands Grand National day tips: Value Bet preview for Uttoxeter & Kempton
Weekend racing tips: Saturday, March 20
1pt win Didtheyleaveuoutto in 2.40 Kempton at 6/1 (bet365, Hills)
1pt win Manofthemountain in 3.15 Kempton at 12/1 (Hills, BetVictor)
1pt win Truckin Away in 3.35 Uttoxeter at 28/1 (BetVictor)
The Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National is Saturday’s big, betting feature and given what we’ve seen at Cheltenham throughout the week, it’ll be interesting to see which way sole Irish representative Screaming Colours goes in the market.
It’s not unusual for Irish trainers to try and target the Uttoxeter prize and Goonyella and Raz De Maree registered a one-two for Jim Dreaper and Sandra Hughes respectively in the 2015 edition.
Screaming Colours has had physical issues which kept him off the track through 2019 but he’s held his form really well on home soil since winning in good style on his seasonal return at Punchestown in November.
He's been creeping up the ratings, though, and another 2lb rise from the BHA assessor compared to his Irish mark might just put paid to his chances, though it’s not hard to see him picking tired rivals off late as he’ll be held up right at the back by Conor Orr, who rode the horse last time and makes the trip across.
Time To Get Up is the obvious blot on the handicap as he’s only had the three runs over fences since joining Jonjo O’Neill from Joseph O’Brien, and he won with any amount in hand at Wincanton, so I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope for reopposing fourth Final Nudge, who is 10lb better off on the revised terms.
A big run looks all but guaranteed from Time To Get Up, who was antepost favourite for the Kim Muir from quite an early stage and comes here instead, but he’s not been missed in the betting and he's not the only progressive horse in the field either so TRUCKIN AWAY is readily preferred.
Philip Hobbs may be having another dodgy season but this eight-year-old has made good progress since having wind surgery last spring, building on creditable runs at Exeter and Ludlow to win really impressively at Doncaster at the end of December.
At Ludlow he bumped into the lightly-raced and sadly ill-fated Roll Again, where he had subsequent wide-margin Newbury winner Fagan back in third, while the Town Moor win – a race in which the first two pulled 37 lengths clear of the rest – has also had a boost since with runner-up The Late Legend winning off the same mark on his next start.
Truckin Away looked really good value for his seven and a half-length victory that day, clearly dossing and doing very little to assist his rider once getting to the front, and the 10lb hike looks perfectly justified.
I’d be amazed if there isn’t plenty more to come from the strapping son of Getaway, who beat the very useful Acey Milan in a Ffos Las maiden hurdle in his youth, and he might just have been laid out for this.
Good ground the key at Kempton
MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN looks an interesting one off an 81-day break in the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase at Kempton.
He’s been dropped 2lb in the weights after pulling up at Newbury when last seen on December 29 but he had excuses there as he found the three miles, two furlongs too much of a test on the bad ground and also lost a shoe during what was quite a rough race.
Despite that relatively disappointing result, Manofthemountain retains a pretty impressive strike-rate (4-7) over fences and it’s well worth highlighting he does tend to go well fresh having struck at Newton Abbot in August 2019 after 218 days away, and again first time out at Bangor this season following a 274-day break.
The slight ease in the ratings still leaves him 5lb higher than for that most recent win last September but he was sent off 4/1 favourite and not disgraced in fourth behind Frodon at Cheltenham off 138 the following month, so I’ve no issue at all with his mark.
Emma Lavelle’s horse has done all of his winning on left-handed tracks until now, though Bangor, Taunton, Southwell and Newton Abbot are all relatively sharp in nature and I do essentially see him as a speed horse who stays three miles.
Perhaps dropping back in trip might catch him out but with lots of early pace in the race – courtesy of Falco Blitz, My Way, Princeton Royale and Mellow Ben - it’s not hard to envisage them coming back to a strong-traveller like Manofthemountain late on, and at the prices he’s worth a bet for an Emma Lavelle yard whose horses have often performed above market expectations here (+112.70 level stakes profit in last five seasons).
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO looks the one to be with in the Virgin Bet Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle on the same card.
Nick Gifford's horse has to come here having just missed the cut for the Martin Pipe at the Festival but it’s not hard to see this kind of test proving even more suitable as he’s occasionally not been the strongest finisher but has a really nice kick when on song.
He’s definitely struggled to fulfil the promise of his bumper/novice hurdle days, a head defeat of Thomas Darby at Ascot in November 2018 the last time he tasted success, but he’s been cut some slack by the assessor as a result and shaped well when second in a bumper on the all-weather track at Kempton last month.
He’s since has a spin over a mile and a half on the Flat here too, running an eyecatching race to grab fourth from the back of the pack as the front pair throughout dictated matters and went on to fill the first two places.
With market leader Nightboattoclyro facing very different conditions as he seeks the four-timer, Gifford’s charge gets the nod at a perfectly fair price.
Published at 1600 GMT on 19/03/21
ITV Racing schedule
- Kempton: 2.05, 2.40, 3.15
- Uttoxeter: 1.50, 2.25, 3.00, 3.35
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