Tips for Haydock and Ascot: Best value bets Saturday November 25
Two big meetings at Haydock and Ascot are covered this week as our man looks to unearth the pick of the value.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 25
1pt e.w. Howlinmadmurdock in 2.20 Haydock at 28/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Funambule Sivola in 3.15 Ascot at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Haute Estime in 3.35 Haydock at 10/1 (General)
Game on for Nicholls and Jacob
Harry Cobden may have been told to prioritise Ascot, where he has four decent rides for the boss, but ITV’s cameras are primarily focused on Haydock with a handful of televised races in the north west, featuring the Grade 1 Betfair Chase.
All the attention has been on Paul Nicholls’ star Bravemansgame since the decision was made to come here en route to the King George and I’m fully expecting the eight-year-old to win this having reportedly come on plenty for his comeback outing in the Charlie Hall.
Granted, he was surprisingly beaten in West Yorkshire but a 6lb penalty combined with soft ground and – above all – the lunging error at the final fence obviously made a difference there.
This horse’s jumping has been close to flawless throughout his chasing career to that point so I think we can give him a pass and his form is just that bit superior to even Protektorat’s very best which came in this race last year.
If there’s a bet in the race then it is probably Royale Pagaille, whose Haydock record of three wins from four visits stands up to close scrutiny. The sole defeat he’s suffered here came on good to soft ground in the 2021 edition of the Betfair Chase, when A Plus Tard skipped to a 22-length victory, but Venetia Williams’ horse still boxed on well for second and conditions could be a touch more suitable this time around.
Now, if it were Shishkin and Protektorat to beat on Saturday, rather than the seemingly parachuted-in Bravemansgame, I’d be sweet enough on Royale Pagaille providing an upset, but can’t really justify a bet against the Gold Cup runner-up, who jumped superbly in the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase around here on this card two years ago.
That very same graduation chase sees Willie Mullins send over Gaillard Du Mesnil this time around and he’s 7lb clear of nearest rival Grey Dawning on Timeform’s adjusted figures.
The one they should both be fearing, though, is Lucinda Russell’s newcomer to chasing, Apple Away, a point-to-point winner last seen bring up a hat-trick with victory in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.
She’s a bludgeoning front-runner who promises to be very well suited by the switch to fences, as well as a return to this track where she finished second to a well-treated Sacre Coeur in a handicap hurdle last December. The betting market clearly isn’t missing Apple Away, though, and it’s another race I can only conclude with ‘no bet’.
Howling on the prowl for in-form Lacey
HOWLINGMADMURDOCK was last seen finishing fifth behind Apple Away at Aintree and, conversely, he is surely being a little overlooked easing back in class for the Betfair ‘Serial Winners’ Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle.
Half of the 10 horses to have run subsequent to the Sefton won on their next start, including third home Iroko (now injured unfortunately), fourth Stay Away Fay and the sixth Marble Sands, who have all landed novice chases earlier this season. It’s red-hot form, in short.
There must have been a strong temptation to go straight over fences with Howlingmadmurdock too, but trainer Tom Lacey, who is in seriously good form this month (5-11 in the past fortnight prior to Friday’s action), has opted to go for another handicap despite being bumped up 10lb to a mark of 140 for the fine run when a huge price on Merseyside.
That looks quite significant and I’m all for it, considering how unexposed this horse is at staying distances. His dam is a half-sister to Time For Rupert, who won a three-mile handicap hurdle from a mark of 145 at one stage, and hopefully this six-year-old can find enough further improvement to defy the rise in the ratings, though I’m not convinced he needs to progress all that much in truth.
Slate Lane could obviously be thrown in for Emmet Mullins and he gets the thick end of a stone from the selection, but his form is a fair way behind Howlingmadmurdock on paper, while I don’t think Crambo’s comeback win over two and a half miles was on a par with the aforementioned top-class Aintree effort either, and he’s now up to 139.
It’s a very competitive race but I’ll take my chances at the odds with Lacey’s class-dropper, especially as there isn’t a huge amount of pace in the race and Howlingmadmurdock is just one of a few that likes to be prominent.
Haute to be on the premises
With Carnfunnock no bigger than 9/2 in the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, the other one to be on at Haydock is the Russell-trained HAUTE ESTIME in the Betfair “Free Racing Multiple Today” Handicap Chase.
She was 20/1 with a number of firms straight after declarations but I’ve nothing against the current 10/1 (8s-plus would do me) as I can see the return to a flat, left-handed track sparking the mare right back to form.
Haute Estime won around here as a novice hurdler, before finishing third in the 2022 Sefton at Aintree and claimed her sole win over fences so far on a similarly sharp, anti-clockwise circuit at Warwick in March this year.
She was understandably outclassed by the 142-rated Pink Legend in a Listed race at Perth the following month and then took a crashing fall back at the Scottish track on her seasonal comeback in September.
There was possibly an element of her still getting over that experience when a staying-on fifth at Carlisle recently, but it was an encouraging effort on the face of it and she’s been dropped 2lb to a mark of just 123.
That’s 9lb below her rating when starting out over fences last autumn and I can see her really hitting peak fitness now after the two runs back from her summer break.
More Fun to be had with classy Sivola
Ascot’s Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase is a fascinating one as I can’t be putting maximum faith in a horse like Shishkin in the first-time cheekpieces, but it’s equally difficult to make a case for any of the others being over-priced.
On a strict reading of the ratings, Minella Drama is arguably the wrong price based on his excellent effort behind Pic D’Orhy at Aintree and another very solid run when second off 155 in the Old Roan on his seasonal debut. But I can’t see him improving another ounce so, on balance, we can move on.
Nicky Henderson has had a bunch of winning mares in recent weeks, which bodes very well for the return of Under Control in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury next week, and I can certainly see Theatre Glory adding her name to the tally in the Coral Hurdle.
She’s won five of her 10 starts over obstacles to this point and probably didn’t enjoy the wet spring so getting back on some decent ground is going to benefit her enormously.
I couldn’t put anyone off her at anything around 11/4 – she could realistically be favourite for this given the question marks over the others – but for an Ascot bet I’ll take a swing at the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase.
The key piece of form looks to be the course and distance contest won by Boothill here last month and he’ll have to overcome a 6lb hike, with the reopposing third Saint Segal, fifth Frere D’Armes, and sixth FUNAMBULE SIVOLA eased 1lb, 2lb and 3lb respectively.
Frere D’Armes was top of the shortlist on Thursday morning but the early 13/2 dried up quickly and on the prevailing ground – and at the prices - I’ve simply got to back old pal Funambule Sivola.
He was beaten 20 lengths in the end but showed enough of the old zest to suggest he’ll win more races and Charlie Deutsch didn’t unduly punish the horse, who was having his first run of the season following another summer wind operation.
Plenty of Williams’ horse have been winning first time up but this looked a sighter to me, and the assessor has been quite generous with the two-time Game Spirit winner, while I really like the booking of in-form rider Ned Fox, who is able to claim 5lb and has a brilliant 33% strike-rate (17-51) for the yard over the years.
I had to do a bit of a double-take when I read he’d never ridden at Ascot before (he’s had rides at 37 of the other 40 tracks that stage jumps racing), but he’s clearly no mug and let’s hope he’s a fast learner when it comes to this venue.
Published at 1600 BST on 24/11/23
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