Tips for Cheltenham: Best value bets November Meeting day two, Saturday November 18
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Saturday's quality action from Cheltenham and he has three recommended bets.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced 123pts profit, while he's more than 30pts up for the year.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, from 3pm before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App at 4pm.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 18
1pt win Outside The Door in 1.10 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General) - take no lower
1pt win Angels Breath in 2.20 Cheltenham at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - 8/1 min
1pt win Come On Teddy in 2.55 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General) - 12/1 min
Heaven sent in Paddy Power Gold Cup
A typically beguiling edition of the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase headlines day two of Cheltenham’s November Meeting on Saturday. What isn’t quite so typical - though clearly more than welcome - is that we have the winners of both the Brown Advisory and the Turners Novices’ Chase from the Festival in March lining up under big weights.
Interestingly, The Real Whacker and Stage Star, running off BHA marks of 162 and 155 respectively, will need to buck a recent trend in this race as the past seven winners have all come here fit from a recent outing of some description.
Seven more of this year’s 14-strong field also come here first time out, including the well-fancied pair of Il Ridoto and Fugitif, and while it’s perfectly plausible that one of them strikes gold on seasonal debut, I’m left wondering if there is value to be found among the smaller group of horses who have enjoyed a prep run already this season.
Unexpected Party beat subsequent ‘Rising Stars’ winner Knappers Hill at Chepstow last month and definitely has a chance of following up in this having not been dealt a significant rise (up 4lb), while Notlongtillmay is another understandably towards the head of the betting as he’s able to compete off the same mark as when running on for fourth in a two-mile handicap here at the Showcase Meeting.
If The Real Whacker is a genuine Gold Cup horse then he should probably be up to defying top weight but it’s worth pointing out that Sam Thomas had ANGELS BREATH entered in the Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase before his return from a long injury layoff earlier this year, and the lightly-raced nine-year-old looks to be creeping into this event a little under the radar following a really encouraging effort over hurdles here last month.
Sent off 6/1 for the 2019 Sky Bet Supreme and 11/4 favourite for the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Aintree the following month, he didn’t win either in the end but did look the business with two chase wins when resuming at the start of the 2019-20 campaign.
He picked up a serious injury during the second of those Ascot victories and spent just over three years on the sidelines, but full credit to his owners as he’s gradually come back to full fitness by the looks of things, finishing second in a handicap chase at Chepstow in April and filling the same spot over the smaller obstacles here last time when showing much more of his old sparkle.
Granted, he’s got to run off 6lb higher back up in class and returned to fences, but he’s only had four chase runs in his life, don’t forget, and Thomas has already proven himself to be an adept target-trainer.
The hurdle race he ran in at the Showcase Meeting was the first time he’d contested a strongly-run handicap and he appeared to love it so this Paddy Power is going to suit him down to the ground, with a bunch of prominent racers potentially setting things up for a strong-travelling type like Angels Breath.
This race was on the horse’s agenda last year before another physical niggle arose, by all accounts, but everyone connected to him has had to be extremely patient and I wouldn’t be surprised if it all paid off with a big pay-day on Saturday.
Take Teddy on long-awaited comeback
The other main betting opportunity among the ITV schedule is the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle, featuring some classy horses not seen for a while. Chantry House, Shan Blue and Minella Trump are all on dangerous-looking marks in this sphere and the same applies to the formerly top-notch Real Steel, who won last year’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown and is back over the smaller obstacles for the first time since 2018.
Recent Galway winner Buddy One isn’t dismissed off his new mark, David Pipe’s French recruit Placenet could obviously be well-in and Exeter third Moka De Vassy was high on the shortlist too until his price crashed on Thursday evening.
When it comes to nailing down a bet, I’ll return to one of the relative old boys making their comeback – namely Tom George’s former course winner COME ON TEDDY.
He’s been off since being pulled-up in the Kim Muir at the 2022 Festival but did win one of his three other chase starts earlier that season and, as is often the case, he’s been given a proper chance by the handicapper following an extended period of time off the track.
Able to run off a mark of 132 back over hurdles, that’s a couple of pounds lower than when third to Mrs Milner in the 2021 Pertemps Final, and 5lb below the mark he defied in a novices’ handicap chase at Uttoxeter two Decembers ago.
He stays all day, tends to go well when fresh and while the yard is pretty quiet in general these days, George did have a winner at Doncaster on Friday.
Door open to further progress
Another one I’m keen on comes before the terrestrial TV cameras are rolling, with OUTSIDE THE DOOR making some appeal at a big price in the Wienerberger Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase.
There hasn’t been an Irish winner of this race so far but they’ve come close in recent seasons and Tony Martin, Gavin Cromwell and Philip Rothwell all bring likely types this time around. Preference is for Outside The Door, representing the in-form Padraig Roche, who has yet to have a chase runner in Britain but hasn’t wasted bullets when travelling over with his hurdlers, winning the Boodles Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle in 2022 with Brazil.
This horse is 2-10 over fences and has improved again during the summer, winning a three-mile handicap chase at Punchestown in June and backing that up with a good fourth at Wexford, a race in which recent Showcase Meeting winner Whacker Clan finished third.
He returned from a break with a low-key run in pretty desperate conditions at Kilbeggan in August but was back on song with an eyecatching effort over hurdles at Punchestown last month and his BHA chase mark of 118 looks more than manageable based on the Wexford effort off 116.
Just a length behind Whacker Clan that day, that horse is now rated 131 so Outside The Door is clearly well-treated if the ground doesn’t get too testing, which doesn’t look likely based on the forecast.
Jockey Tiernan Power Roche (no relation to the trainer) has a bit of experience around here (0-3 at Cheltenham) and won the La Touche Cup at the Punchestown Festival so I can’t imagine there will be any issues when it comes to assistance from the saddle.
It’s an open race but Outside The Door looks a little over-priced at 20/1.
Published at 1600 BST on 17/11/23
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