Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Chepstow, Newmarket and York on Friday

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Newmarket

1.47 1 pt – 1 Kullazain

The Strikin Viking has had excuses on his last two starts but there must be some concern as to whether he’ll come back to his early-season form (for a different stable) at this stage of the season, especially at this trip for the first time against some confirmed speedsters. Midnight Thunder is the obvious starting point against him given how promising he’s looked on his last two starts but he also drops back in trip and it’s difficult to suggest he’s overpriced at around 4/1. One who might be is Kullazain who looked a slow learner for a six-figure breeze-ups purchase when only third on his debut at Ripon but he showed much improved form despite again going off at big odds when winning at Sandown next time by a wide margin in a good timefigure. The form remains largely untested since, but Kullazain looked a potentially useful sprinter that day and coming here straight from maiden company, he’s open to plenty more progress than a few of his rivals that have already been seen in listed and group races.

2.25 1 pt – 3 First Instinct

A potentially deep renewal of the Oh So Sharp and the usual decision in a 2-y-o race of choosing whether to side with slightly more exposed types with the best form or go for a potential improver. Miss Fascinator seems a perfectly fair price in the former category as the Timeform top-rated isn’t far off the standard usually required to win this and will be suited by the return to 7f, but she takes on four unbeaten fillies and the likelihood is that at least one will improve past her, and on impressions created, that filly might be First Instinct. It’s a nagging concern she’s missed the break on both starts, but equally it’s been impossible not to be taken with the way she’s got herself out of trouble, quickening up well at Nottingham before following up in a race at Haydock that packs a fair bit of substance. Everything points to her being better over this longer trip and she can kickstart what will hopefully be a very good afternoon for Tom Marquand.

3.00 1 pt – 8 Ten Bob Tony

A bigger field than has become the norm for the Challenge and competitive stuff pitching a few with proven form at this sort of level that haven’t been at their best of late against some up and comers and it might be worth siding with one from the latter group given the prevailing odds. Ten Bob Tony created a really good impression when winning over C&D here at the Craven meeting and comes here still seeming relatively unexposed. He found the Guineas beyond him next time but wasn’t beaten far in the German equivalent and took his form up another notch when finishing second behind the reopposing Topgear in the Prix du Pin at Longchamp last time, forced to concede first run but closing the gap on him all the way to the line. There’s a few that like to get on with things here, Quinault likely to lead and Topgear and Pogo unlikely to be far away but Ten Bob Tony could be well placed in the next wave and his likeable attitude can see him outrun double-figure odds for a stable that continues to tick along nicely.

3.35 1 pt – 5 Dreamy

Jockey bookings provide something of a late curveball, with Ryan Moore riding stablemate January rather than Dreamy but having been more like a 15/8 shot prior to jockey confirmations, the adjusted price for Dreamy seems too much of an overreaction and it’s a more straightforward choice for us than it seemingly was for Moore to side with the unbeaten American Pharoah filly. She scrambled home in a Goodwood maiden (coincidentally also won by the stable’s 2016 Fillies’ Mile winner Rhododendron) first time out but stepped up appreciably on that to land the Flame of Tara at the Curragh last time, recording a useful time and holding off Fiery Lucy by a comfortable length and a half. That form is good enough to make her top-rated here and looks solid with the runner-up improving since and looking unlucky not to win when edged out by Dreamy’s stablemate Heavens Gate in the Weld Park Stakes there since.

4.10 2 pts – 4 Mount Atlas

It’s very hard to get away from Mount Atlas in this. At first glance, he simply looks too short in a handicap of this nature, but in truth there are surprisingly few progressive types in the field. Mount Atlas, on the other hand, has improved a chunk with each of his four completed starts so far and looks to have been laid out for this, coming here fresh after 11 weeks off since accounting for the next-time-out winners Insanity and Tabletalk at Ascot. Mount Atlas was value for extra over the result that day, too, sweeping through from the rear in a race that was by no means truly run. Oisin Murphy takes over from Hayley Turner here and, with a middling draw meaning getting him settled shouldn’t be an issue, he really does look to have an awful lot going for him.

York

1.30 0.5 pt – 12 Empirestateofmind

Plenty of these ran in the Cambridgeshire last time out, Empirestateofmind sent off at 28/1 and ending up well held having been drawn amongst the unfavoured high numbers. In truth, it could be that he’s just not in much form after a breathing operation and a delayed start to the season, but he had hinted that he might be on the way back on his previous start and has been dropped another 3 lb since Newmarket, meaning he’s now more than 10 lb lower than when placed in handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot last summer. He’s always gone well when the ground is testing and, whilst there’s undoubtedly an element of educated guesswork with him, he’s worth chancing at long odds in a race where you could have numerous stabs at much shorter odds and still not find the winner.

2.05 1 pt ew – 4 Stratusnine

Amiloc sets the standard in this, 2/2 so far and with the potential to improve further, but he’s yet to race on turf and is uncertain to relish this drop to 7f having been notably strong at the finish over 1m last time out. In truth, he’s more likely than not to cope with underfoot conditions, though the shorter distance is undoubtedly a concern. Stratusnine is stepping up in trip having raced solely at 6f previously but that’s not really a concern given the stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree. He’s run to a similar level of form on all three starts so far whilst shaping as though there’s more to come from him under different circumstances, losing a race he should have won when idling at Salisbury on his second outing and again impressing with the way he went through the race when landing the odds at Ayr next time. The fact he’s not been seen since suggests he’s bene kept fresh for this and, whilst underfoot conditions will be much more testing than he’s faced previously, his sire Far Above was an impressive winner the only time he encountered soft ground and is himself by a sire Farhh whose progeny have generally done well on testing ground.

2.40 0.5 pt – 6 Caprelo

A disappointing turnout numerically for a heritage handicap and, in truth, the market on Thursday afternoon makes it tricky to come up with a good-looking bet, the joint top-weights Master Builder and The Reverend rightly dominating the market. If forced to choose between the pair then it’d be the former, a most progressive young stayer who followed his third in the Melrose with an emphatic win over this trip at Haydock and is already proven on testing ground. There’s barely any 2/1 at the time of putting this preview together, however, hard to justify suggesting him as a value bet in this particular race. Far more speculative is Caprelo, the outsider of the field. He’s been beaten from similar marks in far lesser handicaps than this on his last three starts, but there is a case for saying he’s not yet had a chance to show all he can, bred for stamina and this race theoretically more likely to suit him than whizzing round sharp tracks around 1½m. It could well be that he’ll simply be outclassed and/or fail to cope with the testing ground, but there’s enough in his price to be taking a chance that this half-brother to the stable’s very smart stayer Marmelo will take a step forward for the increased emphasis on stamina.

Chepstow

3.15 1 pt – 4 Juventus de Brion

The 2024 Persian War has a very different feel to normal simply on account of there being no Paul Nicholls-trained representative. His protégé Dan Skelton does have a runner, however, Juventus de Brion appealing as having a better chance than his odds on Thursday afternoon might suggest. He shaped well on both outings last season, showing promise on his debut at Exeter before improving when third in a novice at Ascot a couple of months later, in the latter patiently ridden upped to 19f and finding plenty for pressure, leaving the firm impression there’s more to come from him yet. This doesn’t look an especially strong renewal and Juventus de Brion won’t need to take that much of another step forward to be at the level required to win it, hard to believe lack of fitness will be an issue given his yard.

3.50 No Bet Advised

Good Boy Bobby is the obvious place to start in this veterans’ handicap, having a terrific record when fresh and successful in this race last year as well as in a similar event at Sandown on his next outing. He’s sure to be primed for this, whereas the chances are plenty of the others that are reappearing won’t be. Understandably, however, Good Boy Bobby has been well found in the market and it’s hard to muster great enthusiasm for suggesting him as a bet at a top price of 3/1. That’s not to say much else appeals either, however, and on a day with plenty of other races to attack we’re more than happy to leave this one alone

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