Who are the dark horses lurking among the confirmations for the 2023 Sky Bet Ebor?
It's something all punters should be asking themselves before Saturday's major handicap at York, with eight winners since the turn of the millennium returning an SP of 20/1 or bigger, including 100/1 hero Mudawin for Jane Chapple-Hyam and jockey John Egan in 2006.
We've not had anything bigger than 16/1 (Mustajeer, 2019) in the past seven seasons so there's seemingly been a shift towards the classier animals winning it since Sky Bet's significant prize money injection, but in such a deeply competitive field very few can be ruled out with confidence.
I won't be making a final Value Bet call over selections and recommended bets until the finer details - runners, draw, weather etc - are known but as something of a taster, here are three who I'll be monitoring closely in the market throughout the week with those crucial post-declaration factors thrown into the mix come Friday.
YASHIN (Jessica Harrington) - 16/1
Everyone is always on the lookout for potential Group horses in the Sky Bet Ebor which is why you see the likes of Sweet William and Real Dream so short in the betting.
That’s perfectly understandable but there is no shortage of proven Group-race winners in the mix too and Yashin is among those having won the G3 Saval Beg at Leopardstown back in May.
He’s only been seen the once since then when clearly unsuited by really soft ground in the Group 2 Curragh Cup and it’ll be interesting to see if connections want to roll the dice here before aiming towards a trip Down Under which seems to be on the agenda later in the year. Any more significant rain and chances are he'll be rerouted.
GET SHIRTY (David O’Meara) - 33/1
Completely gone at the game, or slowly being nurtured back to peak fitness after a gruelling time of things through a busy campaign last season?
It’s an age-old conundrum when on the lookout for value in the biggest handicaps – Flat and jumps in truth - and we have a prime example here in Get Shirty, who won a remarkable four handicaps before running really well in defeat from off the pace in the 2022 Ebor (the front two were on the sharp end throughout, remember).
That sort of prolific sequence was never going to be repeated off the increased mark but his winter trip to the Middle East wasn’t without promise and he’s now come down 9lb in total since last year’s Ebor in light of four quiet summer spins back in the UK.
He’s seven years of age and possibly not the force of old, but we’ve been here before with loads of older horses from the O’Meara yard, and I wouldn’t be shocked to learn if a second shot at this massive prize has been the plan ever since he passed the post in fifth as a quietly fancied 16/1 chance last August.
HMS PRESIDENT (Alan King) - 16/1
It seems the layers have taken one look at HMS President’s 5lb rise for being beaten in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot and concluded he’s going to struggle in an Ebor.
There’s arguably something to be said for that theory but this is one tough cookie we’re dealing with and you sense the six-year-old will run his heart out again no matter the weights.
He’s obviously been freshened up for a switch to Alan King’s yard this season – not that he’d in any way lost his form for Eve Johnson Houghton – and getting back over this slightly longer trip should stand him in good stead.
His form with Sam Cooke from last season ties in very well with the relatively popular Scampi, and with form on all sorts of ground conditions too, he just looks nailed on to run another brave race for connections.
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