Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 16
1pt win Gustavus Weston in 2.00 Ascot at 18/1 (William Hill, Unibet)
1pt win Raise You in 4.30 Ascot at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
Plenty to savour on Champions Day
Six races, featuring genuinely exhilarating clashes and some old rivalries renewed, all played out on relatively decent ground for the time of year – there really is a lot to look forward to on QIPCO British Champions Day.
The obvious starting point from a punting perspective is that the column has a couple at nice prices on side already, especially Sealiway who was 66/1 for the Champion Stakes before his encouraging fifth – when shaping like a return to 10 furlongs would probably suit – in the Arc de Triomphe.
For those who missed the boat with him I can’t really recommend the French runner at a fifth of the price now, especially with Adayar taking him on again which hadn’t immediately been on my radar as the dust settled at ParisLongchamp.
Already advised
One long-range fancy I won’t resist doubling down on, though, is GUSTAVUS WESTON in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes. This year’s race isn’t short on numbers but it’s lacking a real standout and there are consequently loads with chances.
Joe Murphy’s much-improved five-year-old is right in amongst them and it’s not gone unnoticed that Irish sprinters seem to have excelled in general this year, having won the Flying Five (often bossed by the Brits), as well as the Abbaye.
Gustavus Weston was only sixth behind Romantic Proposal at the Curragh but he was far from disgraced running over a trip short of his best, and connections were effectively forced into dropping back to the minimum after missing what appeared to be the horse’s main target when the ground came up unusually quick for the Sprint Cup at Haydock.
He’d previously won in very good style over six furlongs at the Curragh, beating last Sunday’s Listed winner Power Under Me and Abbaye hero A Case Of You who was third, despite conceding the pair of them 9lb and 6lb respectively.
This horse responds extremely well to pressure, which is always a good thing over this stiff track at the end of the season, no matter the conditions, and there is genuine pace in the high numbers too through Art Power, Happy Power and Highfield Princess so I don’t see stall 16 as a huge issue, providing they don’t all try and make a beeline for the far side.
Rated fourth best on the adjusted Timeform figures, I’d have to think twice about backing him at 8/1, making him a must-bet at current odds.
Watch and admire top-class action
Conversely, I can leave Snowfall well alone in the Champions Fillies & Mares as she’s streets ahead of her rivals and shouldn’t have much trouble in dealing with them accordingly, while the QEII is clearly a race to savour but not one I want to be part of financially.
If there’s one to bustle up the two at the top of the market then I suspect it could be a relatively fresh Master Of The Seas, but they really do all have a serious job on in beating Queen Anne winner Palace Pier, who has since added the Jacques le Marois to his bulging CV.
Hamish does have a fair chance of muscling in on the Trueshan versus Stradivarius narrative in the Long Distance Cup and without wanting to go over the key points from the antepost preview again, I’d make him a bet around 7/1 - which doesn't look likely now after sustained support on Friday.
He has a bit of previous with Trueshan having been beaten a neck by Alan King’s horse at Newbury at the end of their three-year-old campaigns, since when Hamish has only raced twice.
He’s obviously pretty fragile and it was a shame he missed the Ebor but gained some compensation by winning the Group Three September Stakes at Kempton. Hukum – conceding the winner 3lb – was beaten a neck and has since won the Cumberland Lodge by six and a half lengths so it’s reasonable to take a positive view of the form, for all that the second may not have been at his best.
There’s a risk Hamish could effectively bounce and be relatively flat here but the noises from the yard have been very good and given what he was doing two years ago over a mile and three-quarters, it’s hard to imagine he won’t relish this sort of test as a five-year-old.
However, now he's been backed into around 4/1, we’ll have to rely on the long-term position.
O'Brien runner the Balmoral winner?
There’s no getting away from the fact Balmoral Handicap favourite Sunray Major appears destined for pattern races sooner or later and probably has it in him to readily shrug off a 7lb rise for winning well over seven furlongs here at the start of the month.
Getting stuck in at such short prices is another matter entirely, though, and it’s not like we don’t have a huge field of interesting alternatives – some of whom have solid Group-race form already in the book - to pick from.
The favourite is drawn 21 which wouldn’t be first choice in a typical Balmoral as they’ve tended to stick close to the far side when the mud has been flying in recent seasons (stalls are positioned that side on the straight course this weekend). The past six winners emerged from gates 4, 21, 8, 3, 1 and 4, Escobar (21) even somehow managing to end up tight to the far rail as he past the post in front in 2019.
But it’s not going to be particularly testing this weekend so I wouldn’t let that alone put anyone off Sunray Major, especially as most of the pace horses are drawn high which could mean the bulk of the runners wind up racing closer to the centre anyway.
The fascinating one at a greater price is Joseph O’Brien’s RAISE YOU, who we haven’t seen in public for 81 days, and it’s hoped he’s been plotted up for this for a while.
He certainly has the right kind of profile having run in the same Galway handicap as last year’s Balmoral winner Njord en route to this contest, and he was clearly very unfortunate not to finish a good deal closer than fifth at Ballybrit as he suffered a rough trip towards the inside on turning for home.
Despite that, he gets to race off a 1lb lower handicap mark which looks potentially quite generous given he’s only ever run in two handicaps, the previous one yielding a narrow success over stablemate Fame And Acclaim at the Curragh in April.
Back in third that day was the Ado McGuinness-trained Sirjack Thomas who won twice subsequently, including the aforementioned Galway event which reinforces the impression Raise You wasn’t seen to best effect there.
He drifted quite markedly under pressure at the Curragh earlier in the season and Dylan Browne McMonagle wouldn’t want any steering issues in a race as competitive as this, but there’s a chance O’Brien has been ironing out a few kinks during his time away from the track, and I like the idea of catching this one fresh as he won first time out as a three-year-old for previous trainer Andrew Balding, and the Curragh win also came on seasonal debut after 167 days away.
He’s fresher than most of these and while Johan, Montatham and Rhoscolyn are all respected, it’s the Irish runner who could still have something up his sleeve from his current BHA mark.
Published at 1430 on 15/10/21
