Sandown tips: Best value bets for Brigadier Gerard card on Thursday May 25

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 117pts profit.
• So far this year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Gloire D’athon at 14/1, Metier at 6/1 and Croupier at 14/1 (R4).

Value Bet tips: Thursday, May 25

2pts win Roberto Escobarr in 7.12 Sandown at 9/2 (William Hill) - general 4/1 also fine

1pt win Aerion Power in 8.12 Sandown at 8/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Unmissable Brigadier Gerard featuring Derby hero

They say good things come to those who wait and Sir Michael Stoute, who has been the embodiment of patience over the decades, finally gets to take the wraps off his 2022 Derby winner Desert Crown on a cracking card at Sandown on Thursday evening.

“A lesser trainer might have run him,” was the honest update from Bruce Raymond, speaking on behalf of Desert Crown’s owner Saeed Suhail, last autumn and all along the foot/ankle setback that has kept the son of Nathaniel off the track has always been considered only “minor".

Well, major things are clearly expected as the layers have Desert Crown firmly odds-on across the board ahead of his much-anticipated comeback in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes, a race Stoute has used as a stepping-stone for Notnowcato, Workforce, Poet’s Word and Bay Bridge in the past.

He's won it a record 12 times all told and it will be disappointing if failing to make it a baker’s dozen with Desert Crown, who has a pound in hand over closest rival Hukum on Timeform ratings, plus the ‘p’ for further improvement to come after just the three career starts.

Hukum also enjoyed his big day in the sun at Epsom last year, quite comfortably accounting for subsequent King George winner Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup on Oaks day. Like Desert Crown, he’s not been seen in public since due to injury but he’s won on a couple of occasions when fresh in the past which offers some hope in that regard.

In fact, there’s a pretty obvious case to suggest Hukum is the one being over-priced here but with Claymore and likely pace-setter Solid Stone also back from time off, and the race-fit pair of Chichester and Cash having around a stone to find with the big two, it all just looks a little fraught with danger and the desire to have a bet is easily resisted.

Take Haggas horse to land Henry II Stakes

The Racehorse Lotto Henry II Stakes is a relatively weak edition of the race as the five-runner field can’t boast a Group-race victory between them.

Enemy has achieved his relatively lofty rating by winning big-field handicaps (Musselburgh last April and Meydan this January), while Nate The Great was flattered when second to Quickthorn in this last year and doesn’t come into the race in anything like the same form having been well beaten at 50/1 in the Sagaro recently.

Old rivals Sleeping Lion and ROBERTO ESCOBARR look the two to focus on and the latter - the least exposed member of the line-up – holds a cracking chance under Desert Crown’s jockey Richard Kingscote.

He was conceding 3lb to Sleeping Lion when following him home at Kempton on his sole start in 2022 and was also giving 3lb to winner Nayef Road when runner-up in a Listed race at Newmarket the previous season so he's obviously not always had things his own way.

William Haggas's horse shaped like he retains all of his old ability when a close third in a muddling affair at Wolverhampton earlier this spring and, having skipped an engagement at Newmarket due to soft ground, looks to have his ideal conditions here as his only previous start on good to firm ground yielded a Listed victory at York and it’s likely to be getting close to that description after another drying day in Esher.

Roberto Escobarr won second time out in 2020 and again in 2021 so I’d expect him to strip fitter for the comeback run after a 399-day layoff, during which he was also gelded, and the general 4/1 on offer (a spot of 9/2 if you can get it) makes plenty of appeal.

Dapper looks the part, but fast 5f sharp enough

Prior to the two Group races, Blue Storm gets the opportunity to back up his impressive Newmarket novice success in the Listed Racehorse Lotto National Stakes.

His Craven meeting win has been extremely well advertised by the beaten horses since, including reopposing third Hackman, who went on to win a Chester maiden in straightforward fashion.

Having two runs under the belt going into this has served plenty of National Stakes winners well in recent seasons and Hugo Palmer’s horse could be able to bridge the gap with Blue Storm from stall one, though the likely favourite is admittedly very handily draw too in the next stall along.

Charlie Appleby’s On Point made a meal of justifying skinny odds at the Guineas meeting but soft ground might not have been ideal, while the likes of Dapper Valley and Matters Most now have to prove they can do it on a quicker surface following respective victories on easy going at Newbury and Salisbury.

I’m in no mad rush to oppose James Tate’s colt, in truth, though on reflection Dapper Valley did travel very stylishly at Newbury and, if drifting a bit in the betting, it may be worth chancing him on the ground, for all that he will no doubt be in need of a sixth furlong before long too.

Power-packed wager among the handicaps

The Racehorse Lotto Whitsun Cup Handicap is the best race of its type on the night and it could be highly informative with Assessment, Quantico, Light And Dark, Yantarni and Indemnify among those to have been confirmed for the Royal Hunt Cup.

Assessment’s stablemate AERION POWER is another still in the Royal Ascot cavalry charge and, despite being tried over further, I reckon he can still do some damage over the bare mile, especially when there's a good gallop to chase which appears to be the case here.

Aerion Power is another with whom Stoute has had to show real patience as he spent over 400 days off the track between the 2021 Ebor Festival and an outing at Southwell last October, where crucially the fire still seemed to be burning within.

He was disappointing on his final run last year in November but I’ll excuse the soft-ground comeback effort at Leicester last month, where Ryan Moore wasn’t unduly hard on him on the bad ground.

The handicapper has been kind on the back of those three runs as a collective, dropping the lightly-raced five-year-old to a mark of 95, a couple of pounds lower than when beaten just a neck at Doncaster two summers ago.

This horse loves to hear his hooves rattle so the forecast is favourable and I’m not put off by Moore jumping ship to Assessment, who had to be withdrawn at York last week after breaking through the stalls and is up 6lb for winning a moderate Kempton handicap anyway.

A bigger threat may be posed by Quantico, who is 4lb better off with subsequent Ascot second Yaanaas for a half-length defeat at the hands of Roger Varian’s charge at the beginning of the month. This will be his turf debut, though, so Quantico still has a little bit to prove in the context of this sort of race.

The closest I came to recommending a bet in the lucky last was remarkably another Kingscote-ridden horse in Star Player, whose form from last year – when in the care of Simon and Ed Crisford – has worked out really well.

He showed a cracking attitude in handicaps after being gelded and looks to have loads more to offer this year having changed hands and joined the upwardly-mobile yard of Kevin Philippart De Foy.

The problem here is that there are a bunch of other dangerous-looking lurkers on good marks, not least stablemate Umberto and the Charlton-trained Greek Order, who is bred to relish this step up to a mile after a promising third to the now 95-rated (subsequent winner) Quddwah at Newmarket.

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Published at 1500 BST on 24/05/23

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