Sandown & Musselburgh tips: Best value bets for Saturday February 5
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Value Bet tips: Saturday February 5
1pt win Dolos in 1.15 Sandown at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Glory And Honour in 2.40 Musselburgh at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Onagatheringstorm in 2.55 Sandown at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Step Back in 3.45 Musselburgh at 10/1 (General)
Leopardstown’s two Grade One contests will steal the headlines among Saturday’s ITV4 coverage but that shouldn’t necessarily go hand-in-hand with a desire to part with your cash, and I can happily sit back and see how the Spring Juvenile Hurdle and Irish Gold Cup pan out without getting financially involved.
The one horse I may well be tempted to back at Leopardstown is Riviere D’etel, who should probably be favourite to beat Blue Lord, whose Naas effort a month ago was more a case of style over substance. Gordon Elliott’s mare is evidently thriving on her racing this season and, after giving Ferny Hollow a proper race over Christmas, she looks the one to beat in the Irish Arkle getting 9lb from her main market rival.
However, there are more appealing bets at bigger prices on the domestic front so I’ll hang fire until Sunday when it comes to the Dublin Racing Festival, and the terrestrial action kicks off with Sandown’s Virgin Bet Handicap Chase, which may have to be renamed should DOLOS win it for a third time this weekend.
That looks quite unlikely on this season’s evidence, but he has always come good this time of year and there’s no denying the handicapper has given him a massive chance of adding to his fine course record.
As well as the two wins in this event (2019 and 2020), he chased home the reopposing Moonlighter when 3/1 favourite here 12 months ago, and he’s significantly better off with that rival on revised terms. In fact, Dolos has been dropped a stone in the weights for his three no-shows under Bryony Frost at Chepstow and Ascot (x2) before the turn of the year, and trainer Paul Nicholls has always stressed he’s best when fresh so the subsequent 49-day break can only be deemed a positive.
Harry Cobden - back on board now - gets on particularly well with the horse, who wasn’t far off Grade One class (rated 161) a couple of seasons ago. He's got his ground this weekend too and looks worth chancing against Frero Banbou and Gunsight Ridge, who have both gone up in the weights for their recent wins on heavy going.
The other one I want on side at Sandown is Fergal O’Brien’s ONAGATHERINGSTORM, who also returns from a break in the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle.
After signing off with a maiden and novice hurdle double at Warwick and Aintree respectively in the spring, he looked to have made a really encouraging start to the current campaign when third and then second (behind Sporting John, no less) at Cheltenham's early-season fixtures.
The wheels came off to some extent back there last time out but it’s worth another look as despite making mistakes, he travelled up quite menacingly on the turn for home, before weakening and ending up 15 lengths adrift of the principals.
It looked a well below-par finishing effort from the seven-year-old and the subsequent time away from the track probably isn’t a coincidence. I’m certainly willing to suggest he wasn’t quite at his best physically, for whatever reason, on that occasion and it’s interesting to see him resume with a tongue-tie applied on Saturday.
O’Brien has a pretty tidy strike-rate (21-117, 56% Percentage Rivals Beaten) when running his horses in a tongue-tie for the first time and I won’t be surprised to see a big step up from Onagatheringstorm, who I’d love to see ridden a bit closer to the pace around here.
Go for Glory north of the border
At Musselburgh, I can swerve the veterans’ chase for conditional riders but will have a dart on GLORY AND HONOUR in the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle.
Tom Lacey can be a little bit streaky – like the vast majority of trainers to be fair to him – but he has his horses in good shape again now and Glory And Honour caught the eye at Cheltenham last weekend.
Having been off since mid-November, when he’d taken a rough fall on chasing debut, there must have been an element of ‘get round safely’ to the last run and if that was the case then he shaped pretty well in fifth behind Cormier.
The handicapper dropping him 3lb for the run looks a nice little bonus and I liked his effort behind the thriving See The Sea (who was landing a hat-trick) at Taunton back in October, the front two pulling over nine lengths clear of the rest. Glory And Honour has some nice novice form too, including a maiden win over the now 140-rated Camprond, and there’s a strong sense of him having unfinished business in handicaps.
If the rain arrives as expected in Scotland, Highland Hunter might not be inconvenienced by conditions in the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase but I still want to oppose the Nicholls runner.
The Wolf may be the obvious one on form but he’s not the most reliable jumper and, at the prices, I’m going to roll the dice with STEP BACK under the relatively inexperienced Lily Bradstock, who does take off a handy 7lb.
This old boy has gone well after a break in the past but I’d be amazed if he didn’t sharpen up quite a bit for his Ascot run in December, the first time we’d seen him in action since a cross-country chase at Cheltenham in December 2020.
It looks pretty significant they’ve kept him in training and, although blatantly out of his depth when the tempo really increased at Ascot, he ran well for a long way in what has turned out to be a seriously strong race.
He’s been dropped 3lb which puts him 2lb lower than when winning at Sandown just three starts ago and I can see him setting out to make all in this small field. The general 10/1 looks potentially quite generous as he'll have a few of them on the stretch with a bit of luck.
Published at 1500 GMT on 04/02/22
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