Grand National tips: Simon Holt's free horse racing betting preview
Grand National day tips: Saturday, April 10
1pt win Southfield Harvest in 1.45 Aintree at 10/1 (General)
2pts win Cloth Cap in 5.15 Aintree at 11/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Takingrisks in 5.15 Aintree at 25/1 (Unibet, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Saturday's Randox Grand National looks a tip-top renewal with Bristol De Mai heading the weights off a rating of 167, but the multiple Grade One winner will do well to concede over a stone to CLOTH CAP who has a tremendous chance.
Raised to a mark of 162 after winning a Listed chase at Kelso early last month, Jonjo O'Neill's bold jumper can run off just 148 and and is therefore 14lbs well-in, as this is an early-closing handicap and penalties do not apply.
As such, Cloth Cap is outstandingly well-handicapped compared to his 39 rivals and the new rating is hardly surprising after that impressive defeat of solid yardsticks in Aso and Two For Gold in Scotland.
Third to the re-opposing Takingrisks in the 2019 Scottish Grand National, Tom Scudamore's mount has long promised to become a smart staying chaser but the dry ground conditions he prefers haven't always been available.
But it all came together at Newbury in November when, on going described as good, Cloth Cap finally emerged with a breathtaking display of jumping and front-running to win the Ladbrokes Trophy by 10 lengths, since when all roads will have led to Aintree especially as his owner Trevor Hemmings loves the National.
Connections will be praying that the clerk of the course has not over-watered the National course but a description of good to soft would probably be fine in which case the likely clear favourite is sure to take plenty of beating.
For an each-way selection, the aforementioned TAKINGRISKS appeals a good deal having run well on his last two starts, finishing fourth in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle before out-staying Aye Right (earlier second to Cloth Cap at Newbury) in a gruelling Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
With the Grand National fences now much modified, the race tends to be run at a stronger, unrelenting gallop compared to the past when the runners would be 'hunted' round the first circuit, so the emphasis is very much on stamina.
After his win over four miles at Ayr two years ago, there can be no disputing that Takingrisks is a solid stayer who, with a clear round, will still be galloping when others have wilted away.
Of course, there are many others with perfectly plausible chances in the massive field, including 2019 Irish Grand National winner Burrows Saint who appears to have been laid out for this race after a cunning, handicap-mark-protecting campaign of two hurdle races and a chase (after the weights were published).
The same goes for past Cheltenham Festival winner Any Second Now who suddenly returned to form at Navan over just two miles last time, but is unproven over a marathon trip.
Minella Times is another leading Irish-trained runner who has been well backed in the antepost market following fine seconds in two highly-competitive handicap chases at Leopardstown on his last two starts, and represents the potent trainer-jockey combination of Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore.
And to name one more, last season's blinkered-for-the-first-time Welsh Grand National winner Potters Corner, successful in the 2020 'Virtual National', is another who has been carefully prepared this term over hurdles and in a cross-country chase.
Earlier, champion trainer elect Paul Nicholls can continue a successful week with SOUTHFIELD HARVEST in the EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle.
Well related, Harry Cobden's mount remains lightly-raced and, after finishing well clear of the third when narrowly beaten by Jacamar at Wincanton (2m5f) on Boxing Day, he looked well enough suited by a step up to three miles next time at Newbury where, after being hampered early on, he kept on well behind the re-opposing Polish who is now 4lb worse off.
With cheekpieces fitted for the first time, the likeable Southfield Harvest is open to further improvement over hurdles before heading down the novice chase route next season.
Grand National prediction
- Cloth Cap
- Takingrisks
- Burrows Saint
- Potters Corner
Posted at 1845 BST on 09/04/21
More on the 2021 Grand National
- Full 2021 Grand National guide
- Full racecard & free video form
- Graham Cunningham on the key questions
- Ben Linfoot's Pinsticker's Guide
- Grand National trends preview
- Alex Hammond: National shortlist
- Sporting Life & Timeform shortlist
- Cornelius Lysaght: Great Nationals
- Podcast special: Richard Pitman
- Antepost Angle: Grand National
- Grand National: Tips Centre
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