Matt Brocklebank picks through our high-profile Stable Tours and looks to read between the lines ahead of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham this weekend.
Some would argue that one of the fundamental differences between betting on Flat racing compared to jumps is that the summer stuff is just that bit easier to fathom; it is for want of a better term, more computational. They might churn out rather metronomic idioms along the lines of 3lb in weight equating to a length in good-ground races over five furlongs, as if to insinuate the National Hunt world is, by comparison, a case of ‘all muck and magic’.
And while there is obviously a similar lengths/ratings scale used to calculate races over hurdles and fences as well, it is rarely quite so simple.
The BHA website has it right when stating ‘the subject of poundage is complex and open to much interpretation’, and you can certainly say that again when throwing in testing conditions, the quirky courses and myriad of characters that help make up the winter game. Not to mention the obstacles themselves - the headline unintentionally buried here somewhat.
So, I can’t go quite as far as to call it intuition, as we do our best to share cogent reasoning throughout all previews on this website, but I'd be first to admit something additional does need to be factored in when betting over jumps, and it’s probably said feeling that stirs every time I hear or read the word Cheltenham around this time of year.
Computational or otherwise, Cheltenham is one of the great levellers in racing and that is in part what keeps us coming back for more, year on year.
Rain has finally arrived in time for this week’s Showcase meeting as Prestbury Park (belatedly) opens its doors again, those brand new drainage systems likely to be tested on day one at least, and it seems there’s a fresh wave of optimism approaching the place at present.
The number of entries have held up anyway and while this first autumn meeting is for many used as a bit of a foothold into the season proper, there is no shortage of quality here - with 10 of the races to be shown on ITV to boot.
So, plenty to get stuck into on the track but, with that certain je ne sais quoi in mind when it comes to betting on jumps races, particularly so early in the campaign, I thought it could be useful to pull together our Stable Tour snippets concerning the horses expected to line up this weekend. We’ve got Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Ben Pauling to draw upon, plus a brief summary too of what can be deduced from those all-important yet mildly cryptic trainer comments.
Ben Pauling
Wondering Why (14:25 Friday) - “He had a solid enough campaign with us last season winning his maiden hurdle at Lingfield before winning a handicap hurdle up at Warwick in May. Those wins were over two miles, but I see us going up in trip with him this season and he could be one for a Lanzarote if he stays on the right path. Before we look at a race like that we will start him over an extended two miles at Cheltenham on Friday.”
Reading between the lines: Looks bred to get the longer trip, but sticking to two for now and he’s proven on soft and good ground which could be a bonus this week. Up 6lb for Warwick win in May and highly likely to improve again as a lightly-raced five-year-old. Elliott England (6-39 for Pauling) is booked, with Beau Morgan on stablemate Mojito Des Mottes for JP McManus, and he might need to nudge up the weights to even get into a race like the Lanzarote. Big run expected.
As Legends Have It (13:10 Saturday) – “The plan is to run in a novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. He is still a novice until November as he only started winning after March 1. He has come back in great old form, and he looks very well. He is a nice little handicapper that should take his owners to some nice days. He is probably not going to be much more than a 135-rated horse, but he has got a race or two in him. Something like the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury might not be out of the question for him in November."
Reading between the lines: Pauling looks to have set some reasonable expectations here but he’s another unexposed horse with more to offer as a seven-year-old. Went up just 4lb for winning in March at Uttoxeter, so often the source of progressing young chasers. Has some decent course experience from hurdling last season too and he’s another who won’t mind the weather.
Dan Skelton
Cooltobecareless (15:00 Friday) - “He was really good on his hurdle debut at Chepstow and I’ve entered him in the Grade Two novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. It didn’t take us necessarily by surprise, but it confirmed to us we had him exactly where we wanted him to be at Chepstow. He was good at Fakenham, but he never got into it at Aintree, however it was at the end of a long season. He quickened up well at Chepstow the other day, and I liked that. I would give him a squeak at Cheltenham if we decide to go there."
Reading between the lines: Skeltons have won the past two editions of this race and would have had a long list of potential runners to line to mount the hat-trick bid. Summer breathing operation looks to have done some good and hard not to be impressed by the Chepstow comeback. Race-fitness assured and winning form on bad ground in the book as well.
Newgrove (16:40 Saturday) - “He is a bit sharper than your average point-to-point winner. He reminds me a bit of Fortune De Mer. He has got that bit of pace and he will be ready to go into a bumper at any point.”
Reading between the lines: Yard just missed out in this event previously, saddling the runner-up in the past three seasons, so really interesting comment about his readiness and the pace he’s been showing in homework. Got to be taken very seriously if lining up.
Nicky Henderson
Planters Punch (15:00 Friday) - “He won three of those National Hunt Junior Hurdles, and he was impressive every time. He kept coming back asking for more. The last two races he won easily, and he could have probably done more at home, but it was great education for him. His first race, when he beat a horse of Warren’s (Greatrex) called Aqua Blue, that won two of these races as well, was probably the strongest race of them all. The next two times he barely came off the bridle. He wouldn’t be the biggest in the world, but he is very professional and he rates an exciting prospect for the season. He is a smaller horse than Feel Gut, and one we want to get on with. I think he is pretty smart. He has plenty of speed so he will start at two miles.”
Reading between the lines: Appears to be held in pretty high regard and likely to become a household name in the fulness of time. Henderson only had the one winner since May and likely to have just three or four runners all weekend but, that aside, this gelding looks a potential star for Seven Barrows.
Paul Nicholls
Sans Bruit (15:35 Friday) - “Despite not winning the Red Rum last season he still ran well in it. He has dropped to a good mark now and the plan is to go to Cheltenham on Friday for a valuable two-mile handicap chase there. He goes well fresh and he has a nice light weight. I think Harry Cobden is going to ride him as he has won on him before, and his owner is quite keen for him to ride him. It seems that he has been at his best in the spring, but he has never been on a sensible handicap mark at the start of a season before, but at least he is now. I think the way he ran at Aintree suggests he should win another nice handicap chase somewhere along the line.”
Reading between the lines: Cobden keeps the ride which is encouraging and no question he’s well handicapped if back to anything like his best off a revised mark of 130. The obvious issue is that he tends to save his best for much later in the season and he might not be the happiest if the heavens really do open.
Viroflay (14:55 Saturday) - “After a frustrating run of second place finishes it was good to see him win under Olive [Nicholls] at Kempton Park last Christmas. He then won over an extended three-miles-and-two-furlongs on his most recent start at Newton Abbot in the spring. I’ve got him entered at Cheltenham on Saturday, but I think I will probably wait until Ascot the following week as that gives me a bit more time to see how much rain comes. If we got enough then Wincanton could still be a possibility, as my favoured option has always been to run him in the Badger Beers. If there were positive signs that would be going ahead then we could go there, if not we have the option of going to Ascot.”
Reading between the lines: Got to take note when someone like Nicholls is being so specific with his targets as he evidently believes there still some wriggle-room off the career-high mark of 144. So while Cheltenham looks highly unlikely, definitely a name to note for an early-season handicap chase around three miles.
Quebecois (16:05 Saturday) - “It was a bit frustrating last season that he didn’t win, but the big advantage is that he can run in handicaps and novice chases. He ran well in the Ultima, and he seems to go well around there, so I will enter him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I’m not convinced the Coral Gold Cup is his bag, but I may enter him. He loves good to soft ground. As a novice chaser with experience, I’m quite excited about him. When he ran around Cheltenham over two miles and five furlongs, he wasn’t beaten far after making the running so he isn’t that slow. He is a bit like Il Ridoto, who jumps brilliantly from the front end. He ran well at Newton Abbot last Saturday, but he should have won. I’ve actually entered him in the novices’ chase at Cheltenham on Saturday as I saw there weren't many entries in it, and he was as fresh as paint on Monday. We will see how the week unfolds, but I will have a tentative look at the race on Saturday.”
Reading between the lines: He was a sight to behold for 95% of the Ultima here in March and surely only a matter of time before he’s off the mark over fences. No doubt he’s sharpened up from Newton Abbot last weekend, although the intermediate trip of the Paddy Power could suit best and that may now be Plan-A for Nicholls.
Jumps Stable Tours
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