Value Bet

Newmarket and Newbury tips: Best value bets for Saturday May 14

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Value Bet tips: Saturday May 14

1pt win Inverness in 2.45 Newbury at 11/1 (NON RUNNER)

1pt win Natural Path in 3.00 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World-class talent on show

Al Shaqab Lockinge Saturday has never been a huge punting day, personally, and I can happily leave the top-notch Baaeed alone as he looks to extend his winning sequence first time out this season.

There is obviously some sort of case to be made for Mother Earth, Alcohol Free and Real World possibly being a shade sharper than the odds-on favourite with runs under their belt already this term, and if there is a bet to be had then it’s possibly the latter ‘to be placed’ at evens or ‘to finish second’ at 3/1, but I won’t dwell on the Group One feature for the sake of it.

Not when there are races like the BetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap to get stuck into and given it’s been won by the likes of Time Test, Defoe, Communique, Headman and Bay Bridge in recent years, punters simply have to be on the lookout for a horse with a touch of class.

Israr and Red Vineyard have the pedigrees and the progressive Surrey Mist looks to have been offered a realistic initial mark (85) on the back of maiden and novice wins on the all-weather, but at a double-figure price I'm drawn to INVERNESS for the in-form Charlie Hills.

Hills had a fantastic time of things through April (10-44 at 23%) and he’s well on the way to matching that sort of tally again this month thanks to four more winners so far in May, and this colt is seemingly held in pretty high regard.

That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as he ran in a Newmarket novice won by subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus first time out last August, after which he won a mile maiden at Goodwood, picking up in good style late in the piece to gun down the Queen’s Educator, who has won twice since including a handicap at last month’s Craven meeting from a mark of 85.

Educator is now up to 90 so Inverness doesn’t look overly burdened by any stretch off 89, while he’s entitled to have come on a great deal for his spring comeback run in the Blue Riband Trial.

Inverness was never really put in the race at Epsom and didn’t look too happy on the adverse camber, with horses coming across him in the final couple of furlongs, but he was only a little over three lengths behind subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner United Nations at the line.

That event was inconclusive in terms of proving his stamina, but it would be a real surprise were the son of Highland Reel not to develop into a genuine middle-distance performance this season, and although drawn a shade wider than ideal in stall nine, there should be no shortage of early pace with Mr Big Stuff expected to be taken on at the head of affairs by Luminous Light and two of the Richard Hannon-trained trio – Zoom and Razzle Dazzle.


Take less obvious Path at HQ

The action from Newmarket isn't exactly bursting with attractive betting opportunities either and the value in the Tru7 Handicap may sit towards the head of the betting in the shape of Roger Varian's Lir Speciale.

He caught the eye when splitting Morag McCullagh and Get Ahead – both placed at Listed level since – on his Kempton debut at the end of March and probably should have won on second start at the same track, just paying for early keenness when losing a couple of places right on the line.

That form has also worked out really well, with surprise winner Nationwide (50/1) going in again at Wolverhampton, plus the second (Ingra Tor) and fourth (Desert Team) have also won since.

Lir Speciale did his bit for the form with an authoritative maiden success on quick ground at Doncaster last month and there’s a good chance he’s got plenty in hand on handicap debut from a mark of 82 here.

He’d become a bet at 5/1 or bigger but remains a spot below that at the time of writing so is one to monitor in the markets on Saturday morning.

There is one who appeals in the Birketts LLP Handicap, namely Michael Bell’s NATURAL PATH.

The layers clearly aren’t keen on his winter form out in Bahrain and, admittedly, there’s obviously a reasonable amount of guesswork involved when it comes to weighing up what he achieved in four starts at Sakhir.

However, he did progress with every outing in the Middle East and was last seen finishing fourth in first-time cheekpieces behind Charlie Appleby’s Silent Film, who had won at Meydan in early-January and is now rated 105. The Sakhir third, King’s Knight, won easily at Wolverhampton from a mark of 85 in April so Natural Path does look competitively handicapped off 86 on his return to the UK.

Seven furlongs on drying ground looks ideal as he was staying on strongly at the finish when winning back-to-back races over six at Lingfield and Yarmouth last year and he looks open to more improvement this time around in the sheepskin.

Published at 1600 BST on 13/05/22

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