Graeme North previews a top-class card at Longchamp, headlined by the Grand Prix de Paris, and also highlights a couple of recent runners to be positive about.
This Sunday sees the 157th running of the Grand Prix de Paris which for a long time, at least before the Arc de Triomphe came along in 1920, was the most prestigious horse race for thoroughbreds in France.
Originally run over 3000m, or approximately fifteen furlongs, it has undergone many reinventions since, with its distance dropped to 2000m in 1987 and then increased again to 2400m in 2005 on the back of the reduction in distance to the Prix du Jockey-Club.
Whether the race has succeeded in its other intention of better preparing three-year-olds for the Arc is open to debate, as only one horse has done the double in the same year since the changes were implemented - Rail Link in 2006 – but more recently it has started to acquire predictive status again with Hurricane Lane winning it in 2021 before finishing third, Onesto winning in 2022 before finishing third in 2023 and Sosie winning it last year before finishing fourth in the Arc.
Despite the promotion of ‘win and you’re in’ races, just six go to post this year including one from that entrance point, Surabad, who won the listed Prix de l’Avre here in May before finishing second in the Prix du Lys on French Oaks day. By Bated Breath, who in a long career at stud has only sired four horses Timeform have rated higher than 115, his Lys second behind a horse who’d already scored in pattern company this season was an improvement to the tune of 7lb or thereabouts but it still leaves him with a lot to find behind the horse who heads our ratings, New Ground, who was fourth in the Derby and is among the leading three-year-olds towards the head of the Arc market.
New Ground’s Derby fourth was a remarkable run (replay below). Not only was he very on his toes beforehand and raced far too freely but he also came wide around Tattenham Corner as Lambourn hared the rail and, despite being hampered and ill at ease on the camber, still managed to run the fastest final furlong of all according to the Race IQ data.
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Given he had earlier finished third in the Prix La Force behind French Derby second Cualificar and French Derby fifth Azimpour before occupying the same position behind Notoi and Leffard in the listed Prix des Suresnes (when ahead of Azimpour this time but again set too much to do), his claims on form are second to none for all the other ‘fastest’ finishers in the Derby, Tennessee Stud and Nightime Dancer, have not exactly advertised that angle with ordinary runs in the Irish Derby and Bahrain Trophy.
Leffard has since finished well beaten in the French Derby, albeit not well drawn but not doing as well as some that day who weren’t either, and he’ll do well to reverse Chantilly form with either fourth-placed Trinity College, who was fourth and has since won the Hampton Court at Ascot convincingly, and Frankly Good Cen who was eighth.
Being by Frankel who has already sired two winners of this race, Frankly Good Cen can be expected to improve a good deal trying this distance for the first time seeing as his dam was a useful winner over 2000m in France, but he took a strong hold at Chantilly and could never get to grips with Trinity College who looks the more straightforward ride of the two having made the running in all his races this year other than the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom where he failed to handle the track.
The only other runner, Uther, looked somewhat temperamental last time on and off the bridle, but he can’t be ruled out given he won the Group 3 Prix Noailles well on this track back in April.
New Ground has the best form in the race and would probably have finished second in the Derby given a fair crack of the whip, and the collateral form of his earlier runs in France this season suggest he’d have finished ahead of Trinity College at Chantilly. That said, the latter is very much at home on fast ground and it’s not difficult to envisage Ryan Moore dictating things from the front as he did in the Hampton Court with stamina unlikely to be an issue. No bet for me at the prices.
The first of the two main supporting races, the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil, is for older horses over 2800m. Details on the Czech runner Emblet are sketchy and official ratings suggest he faces a monumental task at the weights anyway, leaving us with six possibles headed by Double Major who won this race last year. He looks almost as good as ever this year on his second in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan in April but ran poorly last time out in the Group 1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier won by Gold Cup flop Candelari and might do again if the ground ends up being rattlingly fast.
Out of a Sea The Stars mare, Sibayan has a typical Aga Khan four-year-old profile, improving with experience and as he has stepped up in trip, and his latest second to Arrow Eagle in the Group Grand Prix de Chantilly was even more creditable given it turned into a sprint which wouldn’t have been ideal. Yet to race beyond 2400m, that turn of foot will stand Sibayan in good stead here if it turns tactical, but he’s got a notably round action and the ground might be a worry with him too.
Internaute won a listed race readily over 2400m earlier this season but he finished behind Double Major last time when not really convincing with his stamina for the longest trip he’s faced, and while Yashin handles fast ground and has a turn of foot for a stayer too, as he showed when beating Coltrane at Ascot, he’s the one of that trio with most to do on form and was tailed off in the Gold Cup last time.
The other pattern race on the card is the Group 2 Prix de Malleret for three-year-old fillies over 2400m. Leaving aside again the Czech challenger who has a mountain to find on form, a miserly 9lb covers the other four on official ratings with Sunly holding a 4lb advantage over Ed Walker’s Qilin Queen. I’d need an awful lot of convincing to be persuaded that point of view is correct as Timeform’s French Flat ratings have Sunly well clear.
A late May foal, Sunly is unbeaten in three races and won the Group 3 Prix de Royaumont last time with another of today’s runners Rabbit’s Foot back in fifth. That was a steadily run race and Sunly wasn’t well placed with only two behind her turning for home, but she took up the running with over 200m to run and continued to extend her advantage with every stride, winning by two and a half lengths and leaving the impression she’d have hosed up had the race been more truly run.
Three Pearls ran her best race yet last time in a listed event here, but though she’d have probably beaten the winner Kiamba (who’d previously been third, over four lengths behind Sunly, in a listed race at Longchamp) readily had she not been set so much to do, she still looks to have a few lengths to find.
Qilin Queen looks of a similar merit on her three efforts in listed company, one of which was a win over Oaks contestant Revoir at Newbury where she made all the running, mostly at an ordinary pace, and she can arguably have her run at Epsom put a line through as she didn’t handle the track. She needs to prove that she stays 2400m, however, and this looks Sunly’s to lose but once again her odds are unappealing.
A quick review. I wouldn’t give up on Toyotomi who I put forward in this column last week only for him to finish fourth on his debut for David O’Meara behind Beauvatier. Stable-switching French sprinters have been a good angle this year, as have following those who have showed up well from poor draws – July Cup winner No Half Measures twice fell into that category at Longchamp last year - and now that O’Meara has had a run to reassess him it will be interesting to monitor his progress. An entry in the Betfair Sprint Cup is eye-catching, but given he started off his career at 2000m and was still running over as far as 1500m earlier this year he’s the sort that would make plenty of appeal if turning up in one of the top six- or seven-furlong handicaps which his rating will still entitle him to do.
Another horse to keep in mind is Pinta who finished third in the listed Prix Goldikova last weekend won by Karl Burke’s Bright Thunder. Her official French rating has stayed the same after that effort rather bizarrely given a delve into her closing finishing sectional once she finally got a run on the rail suggests she would have won by a couple of lengths with a clear run, and seeing as it was only her second run back after missing a whole twelve months, a Group 3 event or something better looks to have her name on it.
The aforementioned Beauvatier finally got his head back in front for the first time since his two-year-old days and did it readily, worth a rating of 120, while Woodshauna (118) won the feature Prix Jean Prat, with a late flourish in a 107.1% finishing speed from 400m out to nab the pace-forcing Maranoa Charlie late on with The Lion In Winter getting his career back on track back in third.
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