Ladbrokes Trophy tips: Best value bets for Newbury & Newcastle on November 27
Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 27
1pt win Grand Sancy in 1.15 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Annsam in 1.50 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Glen Forsa in 2.05 Newcastle at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Copperhead in 3.00 Newbury at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
Already advised:
Is the Blackmore/De Bromhead show set to continue?
Henry De Bromhead winning major races in Britain is nothing new and rapidly became commonplace during the spring Festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree earlier this year, but he’s started flexing his muscles on this side of the Irish Sea pretty early on this season with A Plus Tard bolting up in last weekend’s Betfair Chase, and the trainer now has his sights on Newbury’s Ladbrokes Trophy.
Eklat De Rire is the next cab off the rank when it comes to De Bromhead-trained chasers looking to state their case for a Gold Cup bid and if he’s genuinely in that sort of calibre then a BHA mark of 154 should ultimately prove quite lenient on his first ever run in a handicap.
He’s certainly built for this test of stamina and his jumping can be quite extraordinary when he stands off a fence, though if you’re taking the relatively short prices about Rachael Blackmore’s mount this weekend then you’d have to admit, despite wintry showers in the forecast, he’d want the ground even softer to be seen at his very best.
He’s also done all of his winning over fences in much smaller fields so while he’s the most likely winner, he and Willie Mullins’ number one hope Ontheropes take up a lot of the market and I’m happy to have another bet in the race to supplement the long-range each-way play on Demachine at 25s.
Add Copper to Ladbrokes Trophy ledger
Demachine remains firmly on the radar and I could find myself backing him again if drifting back out before the off as he’s surely going to be primed to the minute first time out given how good he looked on seasonal debut last term.
He’s evidently had an issue or two with his breathing, and he underwent a wind op before the Reynoldstown at Ascot, but he looks potentially well-handicapped off 142 going forward and should land on a nice prize when putting it all together.
Hopefully that is on Saturday, fresh off a summer break, but I can’t go into Ladbrokes Trophy battle single-handed and will be backing COPPERHEAD as well.
He’s one of three runners for Colin Tizzard and is evidently not the most-fancied given Carlisle winner Fiddlerontheroof is much shorter in the betting, but the value definitely lies with Copperhead, who worked with Lostintranslation at Newbury’s well-publicised recent gallops morning.
Much like Lostintranslation, who returned to the spotlight by winning the Ascot Chase last weekend, Copperhead has had his issues and he was pulled-up in his first two starts last season, including in this race.
He subsequently spent December and January on the sidelines and didn’t cut much ice in a couple of handicap hurdle outings when reappearing later on, but his progression through the 2019-20 campaign saw him go off 6/1 for the Festival Novices' Chase (then RSA) won by Champ, and I can forgive him a poor year when a lot of the yard’s main horses just didn’t fire.
He won three on the spin as a novice, including a handicap chase over this weekend’s course and distance, and has now been given a real chance by the assessor off 148, having been rated 155 at the end of that promising campaign two seasons ago.
I don’t mind the conditions for him either way as he’s won on good and soft, while there are no concerns at all over stamina either, providing he’s back to full health. The noises from the yard have been positive in that regard and he looks well worth adding to the staking plan at the prices.
Nicholls to get best out of Sancy
GRAND SANCY is clearly another tricky horse and there’s no escaping he’s been frustrating since his novice hurdle days, but he’s precisely the sort of project Paul Nicholls will eke the best out of and, more importantly, he looks to have been prepared for this meeting.
Third behind the reopposing Espoir De Teillee and Kalooki over a slightly shorter trip here back in March, the seven-year-old is 8lb better off with the pair of them, who run off the same marks in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase, and I wasn’t all that disappointed with Grand Sancy’s comeback run at Chepstow.
Granted, he was 100/30 favourite for the race won by Paint The Dream, but he didn’t shape too badly for his first outing of the campaign following another summer breathing operation.
There was a change of tactics at Chepstow, Harry Cobden doing his best to settle his mount as he’s often far too keen for his own good, and it’ll be interesting to see what approach Harry Skelton takes as he won this race on the prominently-ridden Bennys King a couple of years ago but has also pulled off some superb hold-up rides aboard the likes of Oldgrangewood around Newbury’s chase course in recent seasons too.
Given Grand Sancy is stepping up to a new trip I’d expect the lesser-spotted, ultra-patient Skelton to show up, and from a mark of 139 the horse has an outstanding chance at the weights if on his best behaviour.
Williams runner worth sticking with
ANNSAM was last off the bridle before finishing fourth in the slowly-run Kempton handicap won by the Nicholls-trained Calva D’Auge earlier in the month (Boreham Bill fifth) and I’m not surprised Evan Williams appears happy to have another crack at the winner on the revised terms.
Calva D’Auge has gone up 3lb, on top of jockey Angus Cheleda’s claim being reduced from 7lb to 5lb, while Williams has turned to his daughter Isabel (claiming 5lb), who takes over from Adam Wedge on Annsam, who has also been eased from 130 to 129 in the ratings.
That all amounts to Annsam – in a literal sense of weights carried - being 11lb better off here for two and a quarter-lengths, and he clearly wasn’t suited by the way the race panned out. No doubt he’ll go back chasing at some point but the decision to roll the dice again over hurdles looks a sensible one and the forecast rain is welcome as he’s won three times on soft.
Forsa nature in Rehearsal Chase?
I was really surprised to see the handicapper drop GLEN FORSA 1lb for finishing fourth in the London Gold Cup at Ascot last month and can’t let him go unbacked in Newcastle’s big betting race – the Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase.
Without wanting to do anyone a disservice, I wouldn’t normally expect a huge amount of improvement following a Mick Channon/Charlie Longsdon stable switch but current connections did shell out £52,000 for the horse back in May so will obviously have been encouraged by his seasonal debut effort.
Soon out clear on his own under a pretty forceful Gavin Sheehan ride, the horse gave it a really good go, only being passed by Larry and Checkitout on touching down after the second-last fence.
Regal Encore also stayed on from the back to relegate him to fourth in the end but it was a mighty display given the likes of One More Fleurie and Sojourn - who had tackled Glen Forsa much earlier in the race - ended up completely out on their feet.
He’s evidently not been the easiest to keep sound in the past and it could transpire first time out may have seen him in his best light, but the change of scenery and addition of a tongue-tie has obviously done something good and there’s no denying he’s very well treated from a revised mark of 136, having started out last season off 154.
He wasn’t finishing with anything left in the tank at Ascot so in some respects still has to prove he wants this three-mile trip, but given how hard he went on the first circuit last time I’d imagine the instructions to Aidan Coleman here will be to take it a fraction easier, and the flat track at Newcastle is possibly going to be more his bag anyway when it comes to seeing out the distance.
Published at 1515 GMT on 26/11/21
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