Kempton & Warwick tips: Best value bets for Saturday January 15

Value Bet tips: Saturday January 15

1pt win Ch’tibello in 2.40 Kempton at 9/1 (General)

1pt win Eclair Surf in 3.00 Warwick at 12/1 (General)

1pt win Double Shuffle in 3.15 Kempton at 11/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle traditionally goes to a young, progressive hurdler with their best days ahead of them and that could be the case again as Gelino Bello and Green Book may prove to be well ahead of their marks, but Boreham Bill caused a bit of a stir (50/1) as a seemingly exposed nine-year-old winner of the race 12 months ago and there are a few likely-looking veterans who could spoil the party this time around too.

The returning 2018 hero William Henry has been on the scene for ages now and Sam Thomas looks to have done a decent job of getting the 12-year-old down to the lowest mark he’s ever contested a handicap from, but everything in the line-up should be fearing CH'TIBELLO, who also has some considerable back-class when it comes to competing at this kind of level.

The first thing to mention is that Harry Skelton – who has ridden this horse for the vast majority of his hurdling career – is at Warwick to ride the well-fancied Padleyourowncanoe in the Classic Handicap Chase, but that’s certainly not enough to put me off.

The yard’s principal jockey has missed the past three Lanzarote fixtures, incidentally, as he’s been required to ride in the Classic Chase in 2019 and 2021 as well, while he actually went to Wincanton instead of Kempton in 2020 where he rode a winner for Paul Nicholls. So it’s nothing new and the Skelton yard almost won the 2019 Lanzarote when Solomon Grey was second under Bridget Andrews, so I’m perfectly happy to overlook the fact ‘little brother’ isn’t on board.

Andrews rides five-year-old Cabot Cliffs this season and he’s trying the two mile, five furlong trip for the first time after a switch to hold-up tactics looked a suitable way to prep for such a test at Ascot last time out.

However, it’s the older stablemate who rates the Skelton first-string as his rider Tristan Durrell had a lovely sighter on the horse when running on to be fourth over a slightly shorter distance at Hereford last month.

The assessor has dropped him another 2lb for that outing so he’s now 4lb lower than for the County Hurdle victory at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, and he clearly wants this sort of distance these days.

He also loves some give underfoot, highlighted by his strong form on heavy going at Haydock over the years, and the real cherry on the top with him is that he’s going to get a seriously strong pace to track with at least five rivals who have shown a propensity to try and dictate matters.

There’s potential for a major pace collapse late in the piece here and nothing is better equipped to put them away than a well-treated Ch’tibello, who rates a bet at odds anything north of 7/1.

Durrell has only had four winners all season but three have been for Skelton, a couple of which were cool hold-up rides, and there’s clearly something about conditional/amateur jockeys and the Lanzarote Hurdle as there have been 11 winners ridden by claimers since the turn of the millennium, and six in the past eight runnings.

Bold Plan was the other hold-up horse I was half-tempted to side with at an bigger price, though the first-time cheekpieces (Evan Williams hardly prolific in that regard, p1 strike-rate 14/129 at 10.85%) are going to have to work wonders as he looks to have completely lost his way since beating The Big Breakaway in a novices’ chase at Exeter in December 2020.

Double delight on the cards for course specialist

There is a second bet to be had elsewhere on the Kempton card, though, and that is another old boy in DOUBLE SHUFFLE.

His last two victories have both come over this course and distance, off handicap marks of 140 and 143, including the corresponding Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase 12 months ago, and he’s now back on 141 after a couple of scratchy runs elsewhere so far this season.

Fitting a tongue-tie to a 12-year-old for the first time isn’t all that common but George’s record when initially applying one (all ages) is an encouraging 14/83 (16.87%) and it strongly hints that the trainer is looking to reignite the horse having quite sensibly been working back from this day all campaign. In a roundabout sort of way, the precedent has already been set too as he won in a first-time hood here in 2016.

Double Shuffle – second in Might Bite’s 2017 King George over this track and trip as well - likes to race close to the pace and he shouldn’t have too much pressure there with Wishing And Hoping the only confirmed front-runner in the line-up. Overall, it’s surprising to see him as one of the two outsiders for the race as it’s hardly packed with unexposed types and the 10-week break might just have freshened him up.

Everything to click into place for Eclair

The ITV Racing crew are basing themselves at Warwick where the aforementioned Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase is the main betting race.

The Skeltons have sent out 66 winners here over the past five seasons so it’s obviously pretty noteworthy the yard’s relatively new recruit Padleyourowncanoe is the single dart they’re firing at this valuable, local event.

He’s plenty short enough now, though, at a general 7/1, as are Gericault Roque and Corach Rambler who will most likely need loads of luck to successfully pick their way through the field from near the back, and preference is for Emma Lavelle’s ECLAIR SURF, who was still going great guns with Snow Leopardess at the head of affairs before falling three from home at Bangor on his seasonal comeback in November.

That was a very decent race, the winner following up in the Becher Chase and fifth home Blaklion doing his bit for the form with a couple of subsequent victories, and I’m convinced Eclair Surf was set to play a major role before departing that day.

He also shaped much better than the end result when third behind handicap blot Iwilldoit in the Welsh Grand National Trial (replay in full below), travelling strongly and jumping accurately before a blunder five from home almost stopped him in his tracks.

Tom Bellamy was left with little choice but to bring him home rather considerately from that point on and, again, the form has worked out with Iwilldoit winning the main event back at Chepstow over Christmas.

All the while Eclair Surf has been cut some more slack by the assessor, easing to a mark of 133 from 135 for the two outings this term, having been on 136 last spring, and he’s consequently now only 2lb higher than when winning in good style at Sandown in February 2021.

Perhaps concentration issues will continue to blight the eight-year-old but some day soon he’s going to put together a seriously efficient clear round of fencing and trying to get him on side when that finally happens again looks a wise move here.

The pace forecast isn’t too hot either with No Rematch and Chirico Vallis possibly the two most likely to keep him company early on, and the way he really toughed it out on heavy going over three miles at Sandown last season suggests he could improve plenty for the move up to a marathon trip this weekend.

Published at 1500 GMT on 14/01/22

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