There's some quality action on show from Wetherby and Ascot this Saturday and our man has a couple of attractive bets down south.
Value Bet tips: Saturday October 29
2pts win Washington in 2.05 Ascot at 6/1 (General) - 9/2 minimum
1pt win Poppa Poutine in 3.15 Ascot at 16/1 (bet365) - General 14/1 also fine
1pt win Secret Investor in 3.35 Wetherby at 10/1 (General)*
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
*Secret Investor was declared a non-runner at 15:59 on 28/10/22 (Going)
Three and easy for Nicholls?
It could be a fine day for champion trainer Paul Nicholls, with Bravemansgame leading the charge from Ditcheat in the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase after the defection of Secret Investor, while I’m quite keen on the claims of his Threeunderthrufive first time out in the bet365 Hurdle as well, mainly due to the fact it seems everyone expects this to be a prep run before the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.
That race is presumably the way connections are leaning but this horse was a pretty serious hurdler before he went chasing, and Nicholls has won the very same race en route to Newbury with Tidal Bay a few years ago.
Threeundethrufive isn’t in that sort of calibre yet but he’s another from Ditchcheat who has been very shrewdly placed to rack up a bunch of victories and, based on his chase mark, he has every right to give Thomas Darby and Sporting John a right race if close to fully fit.
On balance, odds of 6/1 look perfectly fair without screaming 'back me' so I'll look elsewhere when it comes to parting with my cash.
Tempting Gumball price has long gone
As is often the case on this day each year, there are some decent betting opportunities down at Ascot and the front two from last season meet again in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase.
Monsieur Lecoq – fit from a hurdles prep as he is again this term - was awarded the race 12 months ago after 2020 winner Amoola Gold, who narrowly passed the post in front again, was later disqualified for a banned substance, and there isn’t much in it between that pair at the revised weights. Dan Skelton’s horse is fractionally (1lb) better off on these terms.
There’s arguably more depth to the race this time, regardless, and the one who was priced up incorrectly after declarations on Thursday was Gumball, who immediately jumped off the page on the back of his pipe-opener on the Flat here late last month.
That was a great effort given he’s not particularly well treated on the level these days, and he’s definitely a better-handicapped horse in this code. Once rated 153 over fences, his current chase mark of 137 looks eminently exploitable and he’s still not yet fully exposed for Fergal O’Brien, having made the switch from Philip Hobbs around this time last year.
He was quietly fancied (14/1) when fitted with cheekpieces for the first time in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham in March and although the headgear plot back-fired that day – together with heavy ground which he really doesn’t appreciate – he’s got to be of interest here with his yard going so well.
The problem is his price, which has contracted quite significantly, and I can no longer argue he represents great value having settled down around the 7/1 mark. I’d probably be looking out for double-figures before considering a U-turn.
Capital gains with Washington
I’ll leave Goshen well alone in the novices’ handicap chase that opens the card too but WASHINGTON is one I’m keen to get stuck into at Ascot as he faces a rematch with Hacker Des Places in the Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle.
Olly Murphy’s six-year-old is 4lb better off for a two and three-quarter-length defeat at the hands of the Nicholls horse in a strong two-mile handicap at the Grand National meeting at Aintree in April. Washington wasn’t an unlucky loser there, but he was unfortunate not to go close after losing vital momentum when just looking to launch his challenge two flights from the finish.
He still did much the best of those ridden from well off the pace at Aintree and I’m convinced he’s still on a really good mark despite finishing third in both handicap outings last season.
It was a similar story in the first of those runs too as he’d looked set to win - and win well - before completely fluffing the second-last at Warwick in January, ultimately getting run out of it by Barrichello and Good Risk At All, who both went on to win on their respective next starts.
Washington bolted up first time out – albeit in a small Bangor novice – last October and the yard is ticking over really nicely so I don’t envisage any fitness concerns, and I reckon he’ll oblige in one of these competitive-looking affairs before the turn of the year.
Twist and shout, Poppa!
POPPA POUTINE has the look of a young horse Nigel Twiston-Davies was keen to get plenty of experience into last season and he could step up to the plate under bottom weight in the Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
He’s got very little in hand from his current mark on the face of it, but his win at Wincanton in March left the impression he was only really beginning to fully get to grips with chasing and he had probably had enough for the campaign – his fifth start of 2022 – when a well-held fourth in the Highland National at Perth in April.
He went back to the same venue for his seasonal comeback over hurdles in September too, running well in third despite looking to find it too much of a speed test, and he’s definitely a handicapper to keep the right side of switched back to fences this winter.
There’s a chance Poppa Poutine will need more rain to be seen at his very best, but he’ll be given a bold sight of this by Sam Twiston-Davies and might be quite dangerous with the likes of Tea Clipper and Mister Malarky giving him a stone.
Secret's out in Wetherby feature*
*Secret Investor was declared a non-runner at 15:59 on 28/10/22
It’s obviously early in the campaign to be thinking we could potentially see the Gold Cup winner in action but the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase looks a cracking race in its own right and Ahoy Senor versus Bravemansgame is fast becoming a real rivalry.
Ahoy Senor had the last laugh at Aintree in the spring but Bravemansgame was nowhere near his best there and it’s hard to forget the manner in which he sprinted by Lucinda Russell’s horse when speed was at a premium on decent ground at Kempton last Christmas.
Of the pair you’d imagine Bravemansgame might be the sharpest physically here too, while Paul Nicholls is clearly leaving no stone unturned as he’s given the seven-year-old another wind op and will fit him with a (red) pre-race hood in a bid to keep a lid on him in the paddock and on the way to the start.
He’s tight enough in the market and isn’t betting material on the Aintree evidence, whereas stablemate SECRET INVESTOR looks precisely that on his seasonal return.
He’s only been out of the first two on three of his 11 chase starts to this point and beating a better-fancied stablemate is nothing new to him either, as he defied odds of 14/1 to down odds-on Clan Des Obeaux in the Grade Two Denman Chase last year.
He was clearly placed to great effect that day as he was getting 6lb from his loftier-rated stable companion and it’s no coincidence he resumes here as he looks favourably treated in receipt of 3lb from the top two in the market, plus extra weight from the more established chasers in Eldorado Allen, Paint The Dream and Sam Brown.
The formbook says Secret Investor need only run to his best in order to be seriously competitive under such conditions and while one could argue the run is entitled to be needed after 615 days away, you’d back Nicholls every day of the week to have one primed for such a target.
It’s not like this horse has never gone well fresh in the past either, his lifetime form following a break of 50 days or more reading an impressive 22122211.
He can barely cope with soft ground so aiming here before conditions turn sour is a wise move, while if the other typical pace horses are rusty then Bryony Frost may look to dictate matters on a largely sound jumper who can be hard to peg back once into a rhythm.
It’s a hot race, granted, and the second-season chasers have all the potential to rise to the very top, but the odds against a bit of a boil-over look too big to pass up.
Updated at 1630 BST on 28/10/22
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