Our man looks ahead to day one of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and aims to unearth the pick of the value.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday July 26
1pt e.w. Etonian in 1.50 Goodwood at 12/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt win Ever Given in 3.00 Goodwood at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Lord Riddiford in 4.10 Goodwood at 14/1 (bet365)
Five days of the Qatar Goodwood Festival kicks off with a traditionally hot betting heat in the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap and this year’s renewal looks right up to scratch.
Andrew Balding’s Bell Rock missed this event 12 months ago on account of the heavy rain but he was third to Maydanny the year before and looks on a good mark again having now gone eight starts since his last win in May 2021.
He initially appeared a good each-way bet around 14/1 under Harry Davies but his price was continuing to shorten at the time of publication and, with ETONIAN’s going the other way, marginal preference is for the Richard Hannon runner.
Hannon has always thought the world of this son of Olympic Glory, running him in St Mark’s Basilica’s Dewhurst a couple of years ago after he won his first two races as a juvenile, featuring a remarkable debut defeat of One Ruler.
Last year can’t have been plain-sailing for Etonian as he only made it to the track once, while this year has been a slow-burner too but he was set some very stiff tasks (ran in the Lockinge for one) and last month’s Ascot effort was a significant return to form, just missing out to a Davies-ridden rival who was also in receipt of a chucky weight-for-age allowance.
It was a timely reminder that Etonian still has it in him and although that level of form still wouldn’t be good enough to win this even deeper race, it's hoped the four-year-old can use the performance as a springboard from which to kick on.
He won’t get his own way tactically here but that’s not a massive issue as he should be handy enough from stall six, while conditions also look ideal.
In-form Karibana was another on the shortlist as his price looks a touch too big around 20/1, but I’m happy to go single-handed into the opener on what can prove a long week for punters.
I looked long and hard at the Japan Racing Association Vintage Stakes before concluding I wouldn’t be having a bet against Holloway Boy, but things are clearly far from guaranteed to pan out quite as well here for Danny Tudhope’s mount as they did in the Chesham at Royal Ascot.
Anyway, at a much bigger price, I’ll take a chance on Tudhope’s ride in the World Pool Lennox Stakes.
Regular readers will be aware of my love for Sacred and she’s not easily opposed at Group Two level here, but there are some dangerous-looking three-year-olds in here who could easily play their part.
The bet is EVER GIVEN, who ran better than the bare result when third to Pogo from off the pace in a slowly-run affair at Newmarket last month.
Prior to that he’d put in a silky performance when scoring at Listed level at Epsom and, with his stamina for seven furlongs unlikely to be stretched at this track, it would be nice to see him ridden a little more aggressively again.
One of his career-best runs came when making all in a Chester handicap on his seasonal debut in May and while getting to the front early on is far from a necessity, latching onto Pogo and Lusail from stall one (that pair also in the low numbers) on Tuesday could give Tudhope a cracking shot at pulling this off.
Sacred may well be in a different class altogether but she could also have to circumnavigate a large number of these to lay down her challenge and the current 20/1 about Ever Given is just too big to resist. A win-only dart is recommended.
The in-form Tudhope could be in business on Atalis Bay in the Nicholson Gin Handicap too but he’s relatively well found in the market and LORD RIDDIFORD looks an interesting alternative.
His current well-being is up in the air a little after two pretty moderate runs since wind surgery in the spring but his canny handler John Quinn has no doubt been working back from this meeting, where the grey won this very race from a 1lb higher mark 12 months ago.
Lord Riddiford ran a belter when third to Existent off a mark of 103 at the start of this year so I’m not convinced age is catching up with him too badly, while he obviously loves this track as he won the Tatler Handicap here in 2018 and was a close fifth in this race a couple of years before he won it too.
He looks over-priced all things considered.
As for the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes, it appears we have a fighting chance of seeing Trueshan standing his ground which makes for a fascinating clash.
Gold Cup winner Kyprios drifting to 5/2 or thereabouts could lure me into a bet but for the time being I'm content to sit back and see how Sky Bet Ebor fancy Enemy fares under William Buick before dropping back into handicap company at York next month. That's my idea of the plan, anyway.
Published at 1645 BST on 25/07/22
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