Value Bet preview and tips

Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Newmarket, Haydock and the Curragh


It's a big betting weekend and Matt Brocklebank pinpoints the value on offer across the ITV Racing action at Newmarket, Haydock and the Curragh.


Value Bet tips: Saturday September 24

1pt win Young Fire in 2.05 Haydock at 16/1 (General)

1pt win Treasure Trove in 2.25 Newmarket at 11/1 (General)

1pt win The Franchise in 3.20 Curragh at 16/1 (General)

1pt win Electrical Storm in 3.40 Newmarket at 16/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)


Already advised:

2pts e.w. Protagonist in 3.40 Newmarket at 12/1


Treasure to land Newmarket lolly

La Petite Coco and Pearls Galore have put upwardly-mobile trainer Paddy Twomey on the Group One map this year and TREASURE TROVE is worth backing as she looks to burst a few bubbles in Saturday’s top-class Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket.

She’s the veteran of the party here with eight starts under the belt already, but that just typifies Twomey’s methods of keeping in-form horses on the go, and Treasure Trove is evidently thriving off her busy schedule – so much so that one wonders whether the 28-day break since she last ran might be a negative, if anything.

Having considered Flying Childers winner Trillium the horse to beat at the start of the week, I’ll take her and Meditate on at the prices available as Siyouni filly Treasure Trove could hardly have been more impressive when last in the UK, showing a sparkling turn of foot to win the Listed Roses Stakes at York’s Ebor Festival.

Since then she’s snugly added to her tally with a Group Three win back up over six furlongs at the Curragh, and the decision to bring her back to England and supplement for this looks a significant pointer.

The extra furlong had been a question mark going into the last race as she’d been well held by Meditate over six at Naas earlier in the year, but she did too much too soon on that occasion and is a much stronger model now.

She’ll enjoy the prevailing ground and the likely pace in the offing on the Rowley Mile too, with Mawj, Swingalong and Malrescia all expected to keep probable front-runner Meditate honest.

Sat Newmarket 3.40 (CAMBS) - delete caption

Electrical turn of foot could be key weapon

With such a strong antepost view on the bet365 Cambridgeshire there’s no real desire to get too heavily involved in light of final declarations, but I can’t resist a cover shot on ELECTRICAL STORM, whose form ties in quite nicely with long-range fancy Protagonist.

Electrical Storm finished a length and a half ahead of the Haggas-trained horse when third and fourth respectively in a strongly-run 10-furlong handicap at Sandown on July 2, and it was largely down to the way that race played out which leads me to believe the Godolphin runner might be worth marking up.

Racing in second from an early stage, he stuck to his task extremely well in the circumstances, the other pace forcers Aldhaja (5/1), Forest Falcon (8/1) and Chairman (100/30 joint-fav) finishing only 12th, eighth and sixth.

Protagonist, making his debut for a new yard that day, has obviously improved to record subsequent wins at Doncaster and Sandown, and I’d still probably have him favourite over stablemate Mujtaba despite being handed a low draw, but Electrical Storm comes here significantly better off at the weights having been left on a mark of 92.

He’s presumably had issues and not been the easiest to train as he missed the whole of 2021, plus a good chunk of this season too, but the comeback win at York in June was seriously impressive and it’s done his confidence the world of good.

Last time out the drop back to a mile appeared totally against him as the son of Dubawi was only engaging top gear when it was all too late, but it still represented a third good run in a row since resuming, and the runner-up won on his next start to put some gloss on the result too.

He’ll handle any ground by the looks of it and is drawn right alongside two of the key pace horses in Savvy Victory and Majestic Dawn.

One of three for last year’s winning trainer Saeed bin Suroor here, five-year-old Electrical Storm still has so few miles on the clock and can surely continue to make up for lost time this autumn. He’s a fair bet around the 16/1 mark.

Sat Haydock 2.05 - delete caption

Old flame Fire returns to stomping ground

Nothing else appeals at HQ, with Blackbeard fully expected to put his Group One experience to good use over Marshman in the Middle Park, but those on the lookout for a bit of value need to consider YOUNG FIRE back at his beloved Haydock.

He’s won three times here since 2019, from marks of 86, 90 and 96, so he’s back on a realistic rating running off 94 in the Old Boston Handicap this weekend.

He’s not been able to take advantage of a lower all-weather rating in recent weeks, beaten four and three-quarter lengths (denied a clear run) then four lengths (leaders didn’t come back) in a couple of Racing League appearances at Newcastle, but this is clearly more his domain.

The seven-year-old loves to get his toe into the ground and it’s not like he’s looked a shadow of his former self all year, having posted two fine runs in defeat at York and this track in June and July.

They came off marks of 98 and 99 so he’s still more than capable on his day and while the early 25/1 was never going to last, he still looks a big price at 14/1-plus to capitalise on his easing mark.

Timeform Flat Offer

O'Brien juvenile can step up on promising introduction

The Curragh also gets in on the ITV4 action and with a remarkable 611,000 euros to the winner of the Goffs Million, the inaugural running of the richest juvenile race in Europe is unsurprisingly very competitive.

Ger Lyons’ Hellsing has already got a mark of 103 and he won his maiden here back in May which gives him a sizeable leg-up on some of these rivals, but it’s far from a one-horse race.

The Acomb form gets a run-out courtesy of York third Oviedo and he’s a player with the promise of more to come, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for Continuous in the Beresford Stakes (1.35) earlier on the same card as he could provide a massive form boost for THE FRANCHISE.

The well-bred son of Siyouni made 265,000 euros at the sales last September, has been given Group One entries in the Vertem Futurity Trophy and next year’s Irish Guineas, while his debut third behind Continuous here last month was particularly eyecatching.

He was last early on but made a stylish forward move with a couple of furlongs to travel, before not being unduly punished by Declan McDonogh as the first two scampered away in the closing stages.

Joseph O’Brien’s juveniles tend to come on a ton for their first sight of a racecourse and if that’s the case with this colt he’s one to look forward to. I’ll roll the dice at the odds on offer and confidence can only increase if Continuous provides the 11th-hour compliment.

Published at 1445 BST on 23/09/22

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