Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Doncaster and the Curragh on Sunday
Our man highlights the pick of the value on offer across the cards at Doncaster and the Curragh on Sunday.
Value Bet tips: Sunday September 11
0.5pts e.w. Motagally in 2.10 Doncaster at 66/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Hamish in 4.10 Curragh at 7/1 (bet365)
1pt win Ataser in 4.30 Doncaster at 14/1 (General)
Sunday’s rescheduled Cazoo St Leger Stakes doesn’t rank among the hottest editions of the oldest Classic and I’ll obviously be hoping to see New London live up to market expectations having put him up as a good bet for the Arc last weekend.
If Charlie Appleby’s rapid improver is successful at Doncaster then he’ll surely be looking to follow stablemate Hurricane Lane’s hoofprints to Paris, and there’s a good chance his obvious class can get him through this weekend’s assignment without stamina becoming a massive issue as he certainly doesn’t look an out-and-out stayer from what we saw in the Gordon Stakes.
The Goodwood form reads exceptionally well in the grand scheme of this year’s middle-distance Classic crop and New London just wreaks of a colt only beginning to put it all together heading into the autumn.
Those keen to seek out some value could do worse than French Claim around the 12/1 mark as he shaped like stamina would be his forte when third after trying to make all in the Irish Derby on his last start.
Trainer Paddy Twomey has deliberately kept him back for the latter stages of the year and conditions look to have come in his favour, but it could just be he’s playing for places behind a very exciting horse.
By contrast, the Coral Portland Handicap – also switched from Saturday - is a massively competitive affair and it might be worth having a small each-way interest in MOTAGALLY, who looks to be drawn (stall 12) in vaguely the right spot down the middle with plenty of the proven speed horses among the central numbers.
He wouldn’t want bad ground but few tracks dry out as quickly as Doncaster and this horse simply looks way over-priced based on a number of factors.
Firstly, he’s become quite well treated. Having won five times for Charlie Hills (in the Shadwell silks) including handicaps from marks of 75, 82, 89 and 96, he’s back down to 92 now having started last season with a lofty enough rating of 102.
He was still rated 101 when narrowly beaten by Danzeno (102), Dubai Station (100) and Tarboosh (100) in a conditions race at Nottingham last August, after which he was a close fourth at Goodwood and fourth again in the Ayr Gold Cup from a perch of 98.
He’s since changed hands for 58,000 guineas at the HIT sale last autumn and only made his debut for Dixon recently, running down the field as a largely unconsidered 40/1 chance in the Beverley Bullet.
That’s entitled to have blown the cobwebs away and the slightly stiffer test here is going to play more to his strengths.
In-form Dixon is an astute operator when it comes to sprinters he picks up from other yards (Thursday Doncaster winner Terentum Star the latest example) and while this may not be the day Motagally comes good, especially if there’s much more rain, there’s certainly enough to lure me in with the blinkers also back on for the first time since Ayr 12 months ago.
The six and a half-furlong Cazoo Handicap and Coral Mallard Handicap over the St Leger trip which closes the bumper card were salvaged from Friday and the original bets (including the each-way double) both still stand – it’s well worth double-checking with your bookmaker, but they technically shouldn’t have been voided as the races weren’t reopened.
If you’re coming to either race fresh then Mahrajaan subsequently being taken out of the Mallard and Shine So Bright the Cazoo Handicap (both on account of the going) does change the complexion slightly but Mums Tipple remains unexposed on easier ground and he’s still perfectly backable around the 13/2 mark.
Without wanting to repeat all the copy from Thursday, Ryan Moore gets on well with Mums Tipple, who is clearly back in the groove at present, and he’s 2lb well-in after the recent Ascot run.
One fresh bet I’m keen to have at Doncaster is ATASER in the P J Towey Construction Handicap.
He was originally declared to run at Sandown on Friday but had been left in here too and we know Doncaster suits him well as he won the nursery at this meeting a couple of years back.
He’s another who lost his way a bit at three but has been rejuvenated this time around, following a gelding operation at the end of last year, and I’m willing to forgive the last run as he was just given a bit too much to do on quick ground on the July Course.
Winner Nizaaka was prominent from the off so Ataser staying on to be beaten four lengths left the impression he was still in good form – having won at the same venue in June – and the very strong pace forecast in this event will really play to his strengths.
He’s never won over this far but they should be coming back to him at the end which looks crucial and he’s definitely still on a really competitive mark, just 4lb higher than for the win on his penultimate start.
Day two of Irish Champions Weekend complements the action from Doncaster on ITV4 and another chance to see the remarkable mare Highfield Princess in the Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Flying Five Stakes.
Unless a long season starts to catch up with her, there’s very little to suggest she won’t be winning again here as the track, the trip and the ground will all suit her ideally.
Easy conditions might not be absolutely ideal for Comer Group International Irish St. Leger favourite Kyprios, however, and at the odds I want HAMISH on side.
He didn’t seem to fully see it out when fancied for the Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot last October but this mile and three-quarters is bang in his wheelhouse.
William Haggas’s horse loves getting his toe in and if he’s ever going to land on a Group One, this looks the perfect target.
He was last seen winning the Ormonde Stakes over the extended mile and five furlongs at Chester and the freshness angle – after another 129 days away – is clearly no bad thing.
Published at 1600 BST on 10/09/22
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