Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Aintree, Wincanton and Breeders' Cup at Keeneland
Matt Brocklebank has had 9/1 and 10/1 winners over the past couple of days and fancies one in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint this evening.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 5
1pt e.w. El Presente in 1.50 Wincanton at 20/1 (Coral, bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4) – no lower
1pt win Gesskille in 2.11 Aintree at 12/1 (bet365) – general 10/1 also fine
1pt win Metier in 3.13 Doncaster at 10/1 (General) – minimum 8/1
0.5pts e.w. Naval Crown in 4.29 Keeneland at 25/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4) – minimum 16/1
Already advised:
‘Championship Saturday’ at the Breeders’ Cup can be a minefield if failing to tread carefully and I’ll be taking it relatively easy on the punting front having already got Tuesday on side at double-figure odds in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
I was initially happy enough to let her fly the flag as far as Saturday night is concerned, but I can’t let NAVAL CROWN go unbacked at a wild price in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
There are a few obvious negatives with him – principally his most recent form which has strongly suggested he’s lost his way or gone sour, but he basically didn’t go a yard when sent off favourite for the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock and he did show good early speed, before hanging and fading on testing ground, in the British Champions Sprint last month.
Navan Crown took connections by surprise when winning the Platinum Jubilee in the summer and he looks to be one of those Dubawis that just gets quicker with age, Appleby revealing the horse was only just ‘learning to be a sprinter’. He proved the Ascot win to be no flash in the pan when only caught close home by Alcohol Free in the July Cup, and it’s fascinating to see the Godolphin trainer is happy to run him over an extended five furlongs out here.
Appleby simply doesn’t bring horses to the Breeders’ Cup that he doesn’t expect to be seriously competitive and if he’s ironed out whatever has been troubling this four-year-old, he looks capable of a massive run for James Doyle on ground he’ll relish.
Stall nine might be a couple wider than ideal but he’s one of the Europeans whose gate-speed won’t be far off the best of the locals, and he’ll definitely get a nice tow along with Golden Pal directly on his inside in eight.
The 25/1 with Coral and Unibet looks a bit insulting given his summer form and it’s not a price I’m willing to pass up on – to very small stakes.
November ground will suit dual-purpose raider
A 20-race feast on ITV4 this Saturday and with action from Aintree, Wincanton, Doncaster and Keeneland it’s fair to say all tastes are catered for.
I’ll kick off on the final turf card of the British Flat season and the feature Betgoodwin November Handicap in which METIER looks a cracking bet at double-figure odds.
Favourite Israr was seriously impressive over this course and distance last time but it’s hard to imagine he has an awful lot in hand from a revised mark of 106, and Harry Fry’s Metier looks thrown in under Saffie Osborne claiming 3lb on the horse’s first Flat start for over a thousand days.
He’s become a Grade One-winning novice hurdler during that period and was a well-backed winner when defying a NH mark of 139 on heavy ground at Lingfield in January this year. He was a bit disappointing when last seen at Kelso in March, admittedly, but it was pretty holding up there on the day and I can excuse the run on balance, while he’s gone well fresh in the past.
Still rated 144 over jumps, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 and I’d be amazed if this race were simply being used as some sort of prep for the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham next Sunday.
The Doncaster ground is heavy at the time of writing (more rain forecast) and it cannot be soft enough for this lightly-raced six-year-old.
Former winner looks value call
Frodon is the star attraction in Wincanton’s 61st Badger Beer Handicap Chase, a race Paul Nicholls has remarkably won 10 times throughout his training career.
Frodon seems unlikely to be winning more Grade One races but he did score at the highest level at Down Royal on his seasonal comeback just last year, and being dropped 6lb for his mid-pack Ultima effort at Cheltenham in March looks too generous.
The betting market has him well cornered, though, and at much longer odds and I’m going to roll the dice with 2020 winner of this race, EL PRESENTE.
He’s got to put a shocker of a comeback run behind him at Chepstow early last month but, like so many of Kim Bailey’s horses for whatever reason, he’s a different animal altogether on right-handed tracks and, in fairness, it was his first run since finishing fifth to Rocco in last year’s Badger Beer.
Frodon isn’t the only one to have slipped a handy 6lb in the ratings as El Presente’s two lesser runs have resulted in his mark dipping from 148 to 142, which means he’s back on exactly the same rating as when short-heading Potterman here two years ago.
He’ll enjoy the prevailing ground which is somehow still really quick at Wincanton (for the time of year), and in-form Bailey has decided to fit a visor for the first time in a bid to spark this horse back to life. He’s a fair bet to do just that at around the 20/1 mark.
Handicap mark looks a bit of a guess...
Up at Aintree I’ll be keeping a beady eye on the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle as Ashtown Lad, Remastered and Gericault Roque are all seemingly gearing towards the Coral Gold Cup back over fences at Newbury, but I can’t resist a dart at the BoyleSports Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.
The Nicholls-trained seven-year-old Broken Halo is likely to be the best-handicapped horse in the field, but he has burst a blood vessel in the past so perhaps first time out - over the National fences – isn’t the time to be banking on that assumption.
It’s a typically competitive renewal of the race too and it’s hoped GESSKILLE has just as much potential as the market leader having won three of his four starts so far for thriving training duo Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero.
Gesskille’s talents first came to light when giving weight and a half-length beating to the old boy Give Me A Copper in a three-mile Hunter Chase at Ludlow in the spring, before following up at Kempton a month later. Two runs in France followed, finding second when favourite in May and winning when last seen in a Listed Chase at Auteuil in June, despite making a few mistakes.
There’s rain around in the north west too and while Gesskille’s Kempton win came on a sound surface, he’s clearly well at home on much softer conditions too. He’s 3lb wrong at the weights but could have lots to spare starting out in handicap company off a UK mark of 130.
Published at 1530 GMT on 04/11/22
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