Horse Racing Tips: Best outsiders and value bets for Royal Ascot on Saturday

Value Bet Royal Ascot tips: Friday June 17

1pt e.w. Double Or Bubble in 4.20 Royal Ascot at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt win Quarantine Dreams in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 9/1 (bet365, Coral)

1pt win Ventura Tormenta in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 40/1 (General)

1pt win Bushfire in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 20/1 (General)

• Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Already advised:

1pt win Quarantine Dreams in Wokingham Stakes at 25/1 (General)

2pts win Sacred in Platinum Jubilee Stakes at 14/1 (General)

Take on Waller ace with Wall-trained mare

As if one Australian speedball wasn’t enough for Royal Ascot 2022, next cab-off-the-rank Home Affairs completely dominates the betting for Saturday’s Platinum Jubilee Stakes as Chris Waller’s colt looks to follow up stablemate Nature Strip’s King’s Stand Stakes win on Tuesday.

And what a timely form boost that has proved to be, Home Affairs having beaten Nature Strip by a short-head in the Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington in mid-February. However, a strict reading of the margins looks unwise as Nature Strip was seriously unlucky at Flemington after missing a beat at the start and receiving a not-insignificant bump from a rival housed in the next stall soon after the gates opened.

Home Affairs has since produced a relatively disappointing effort back over Saturday’s six-furlong trip in a Grade One handicap back at Flemington so while he could be different class - and can most certainly win if bringing something close to his best - he’s not for me on UK debut in such a massive field over the Ascot straight course where luck in-running can play a huge part.

Sacred was my strongest antepost bet coming into the meeting and without wanting to go over her credentials in full, I’m convinced there’s a Group One in her somewhere along the line and dropping back to six furlongs on fast ground could spark something major.

She sluiced to victory without coming under the pump in last year’s Hungerford Stakes, accounting for some really solid performers including recent top-class winner Dreamloper, with consummate ease and we know she handles this unique track based on her narrow defeat to Campanelle in the 2020 Queen Mary.

She also goes particularly well fresh so with in-form trainer William Haggas nominating this target as the principal summer plan a long time ago, I can’t put anyone off her at similar prices as she was three weeks ago.

The one I want to be on to small stakes following final declarations is fellow mare DOUBLE OR BUBBLE who is also proven at the track and remains open to significant further progress as a sprinter.

She very nearly beat the reopposing Highfield Princess (14/1) in a Listed race at Chelmsford last summer before dropping back to six furlongs with great effect at Pontefract. Chris Wall’s charge ended on a low note on unsuitably soft ground at Newmarket but she returned to HQ in a blaze of glory in April, tanking her way through the Abernant, hitting the front way too soon, before fighting off Garrus in tenacious style.

The big-field scenario and low draw (8, Sacred is only two stalls away in 10) both look likely to suit as she tends to sit handily just behind the leaders, and I can't resist adding to the Sacred interest with an each-way dart at 50/1 or thereabouts.

Quarantine a Wokingham wonder for in-form Condon

One horse I’m happy to double down on is QUARANTINE DREAMS in the Wokingham Stakes.

He’s been very well backed since first recommended but that’s perfectly understandable given trainer Ken Condon has suddenly come into sparkling form, saddling four winners from just a dozen runners this month, including a couple of sprint handicappers.

Quarantine Dreams makes his handicap debut here from a BHA mark of 100 and it looks potentially very lenient on the back of two promising runs in Listed races at Naas earlier in the spring.

The latest event has worked out well, winner Brostaigh subsequently adding to his tally in a French Group Two and third Geocentric winning a Listed race at Cork. Naas’s Sole Power Sprint Stakes was seriously strong form 12 months ago too and getting back over six furlongs should really suit Quarantine Dreams, who was third to future Group One winner Romantic Proposal over the same trip at the Curragh this time last year.

If he happens to be on the wrong side - and there isn’t a wild amount of early pace drawn in the low numbers – then it’s clearly sensible to have some form of back-up in a 28-runner handicap and VENTURA TORMENTA (stall 17) has to be of interest.

Granted, he hasn’t raced for over 20 months but a long layoff rarely puts me off in this day and age and trainer Richard Hannon looks to have the horses in great nick, with Persian Force, Lusail and Mojo Star all going close before Heredia's win here on Friday (also had a winner at Lingfield on Thursday).

Ventura Tormenta was quite a classy two-year-old, winning twice including the Group Two Prix Robert Papin, and he won his novice over six furlongs on quick ground at Yarmouth second time out.

He was beaten just over two lengths in the Flying Childers at Doncaster before presumably picking up an injury when last of six at Newmarket on his most recent public outing, and the assessor has been fairly lenient in dropping him 5lb for having so much time away.

There isn’t a huge number of unexposed horses in the Wokingham field but he’s definitely one of them and the fact his half-brother George Bowen won so many big-field handicaps, as well as finishing sixth in this race on one occasion, gives some hope that he might just take to the nature of the test.

More reasons to side with Morrison

I'm also tempted to side with one making their seasonal reappearance in the competitive-looking Golden Gates Stakes, namely Hughie Morrison's BUSHFIRE.

Morrison struck gold with Reelemin on his first start for eight months at Sandown last week and we've seen it with plenty of his horses over the years including the likes of Quickthorn who won first time out as a three-year-old before winning last year's Duke Of Edinburgh at this meeting.

The trainer was probably looking to get a run into Bushfire before coming here too but that hasn't happened for whatever reason and he consequently just sneaks in at the foot of the weights on his first handicap start.

The initial mark of 83 certainly looks workable given this Australia colt finished just a place behind Israr (close third in Thursday's King George V off 95) on his second start at two in a Salisbury novice and he subsequently showed a battling attitude to make it third time lucky on heavy ground at Newbury when last seen in October.

Moving up to middle-distances this time around looks tailor-made given what he was doing as a juvenile, as well as this pedigree (from same family as Oaks winner Alexandrova), and I'm willing to chance him on the ground too as plenty of Australia's progeny have handled it perfectly well in the past.

Published at 1630 BST on 17/06/22

Click here for full Value Bet record

More from Sporting Life

• Royal Ascot tips
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.