Horse racing analysis: In-form trainers to follow at Cheltenham's November Meeting
Adam Houghton uses unique Timeform data to identify which trainers are in-form and could be worth following at Cheltenham's November Meeting.
The National Hunt season steps up a gear this weekend with the November Meeting at Cheltenham, the first of several key dates in the calendar in the coming weeks. Next weekend it will be the Betfair Chase at Haydock, then the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, then the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown – and so it goes on.
Of course, many will argue that the National Hunt season is already well and truly underway following competitive cards at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Wetherby in recent weeks, but they were really just the hors d’oeuvres for what’s to come as we head into the depths of winter.
This is when the wraps come off the top equine talents in the sport and this is when National Hunt trainers around the country want their horses to be hitting top form.
Some yards are already firing on all cylinders and others will be hoping for a quick upturn in their fortunes. Identifying those in the first category is what we’ll be trying to do in this article, comparing not just how many winners each trainer has sent out but also how well their horses have been performing generally – Timeform’s run-to-form percentage is the most useful metric in that respect.
McCain making hay as winter approaches
Since the start of October, Donald McCain is the top National Hunt trainer in Britain and Ireland when ranked by run-to-form percentage, utilising data from a healthy sample size which includes all trainers who have saddled at least 40 runners during that period. McCain is also top by percentage of rivals beaten (71.82%) and second by strike rate (35.23%), all of which points to a yard in red-hot form.
Only Gordon Elliott has trained more winners since October 1 and McCain has saddled more winners in that time than he did in October (9), November (11) and December (4) combined in 2020.
The speedy See The Sea has been the most prolific winner in the last six weeks or so, racking up a hat-trick of wins over hurdles in October and breaking the course record for two miles at both Ludlow and Wincanton in the process. The thriving Minella Trump has also won twice to extend his overall winning sequence to six races, a run which began at Perth in May.
McCain will saddle only one runner at the November Meeting – Finisk River in the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle on Friday’s card – but he is sure to be well represented at Uttoxeter and Wetherby on Saturday, both venues where he has enjoyed plenty of success in recent seasons.
Harris slowly returning to previous heights
The only trainer with a better strike rate than McCain at present is Milton Harris, who is now enjoying a renaissance after returning from seven and a half years away from the training ranks towards the end of the last decade.
Harris registered seasonal totals some way below his previous best immediately after starting up again – 6/61 in 2018/19, 6/78 in 2019/20 and 18/163 in 2020/21 – but he has already saddled 26 winners at this relatively early stage of the 2021/22 campaign, including 16 winners from just 45 runners since the start of October.
Harris is currently ranked second by both run-to-form percentage (62.22%) and percentage of rivals beaten (70.91%), once again underlining just how well the yard’s runners have been performing of late. Achy Breaky Heart, Khan and Mr Yeats are perfect cases in point, all having recorded two wins since the start of October.
As for this weekend, Harris could saddle up to four runners on Saturday’s card at Cheltenham. He has two entries in the Triumph Trial, namely Knights Salute, unbeaten in two starts over hurdles so far, and Aliomaana, who has achieved a fairly useful level of form in his four attempts.
Pyramid Place in the intermediate handicap hurdle and Fire Lake in the listed mares’ bumper complete the potential challenge from the Harris yard.
Murphy and King feature amongst best of the rest
Olly Murphy has also been firing in the winners recently with a record of 17/67 since the start of October. He is ranked tenth by run-to-form percentage (47.76%), third by percentage of rivals beaten (67.73%) and sixth by strike rate (25.37%).
Murphy was delighted by the reappearance of stable star Brewin’Upastorm when running out an easy winner of a minor event at Aintree on Saturday, while an exciting bunch of novice hurdlers have also given their trainer reason to smile, headed by Bombs Away, Go Dante, Tamar Bridge and Washington, all winners in that division in recent weeks.
Washington will be part of a small but select team for Murphy at the November Meeting if taking up his entry in the Supreme Trial on Sunday. In fact, Murphy is responsible for only one other entry at the fixture, namely Mackelduff, a decisive winner at Aintree last time, in the intermediate handicap hurdle on Saturday’s card.
Fresh from an excellent campaign on the Flat, Alan King is another trainer who has been performing well by virtually every metric recently. King is ranked fourth by run-to-form percentage (50%), fourth by percentage of rivals beaten (64.83%) and third by strike rate (29.63%).
Sceau Royal provided the highlight during the recent good run of form when winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday, his third success in that particular race. A terrific servant to his connections, Sceau Royal has now won 16 races in total, including the Shloer Chase at the 2018 November Meeting, a fixture at which King is always worth following.
King has saddled five winners from 25 runners at the November Meeting in the last five years, yielding a profit of £37.25 to a £1 level stake. As well as Sceau Royal’s victory in the Shloer, that haul includes two winners of the listed mares’ bumper and two winners of the Greatwood Hurdle.
This year King could be represented by Finest View in the first-named contest and by Tritonic in the Greatwood, neither of whom should be underestimated given the track record – and recent form – of their trainer. King also bids for a second triumph in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (following that of Annacotty in 2015) with Deyrann de Carjac.
Early exchanges in top trainer battle
The ante-post betting for the Paddy Power Gold Cup is headed by Protektorat and Lalor, who are trained by Dan Skelton and Paul Nicholls, respectively. Both men have their sights set on the trainers’ championship in 2021/22 and victory in this valuable prize would certainly be an early fillip to their hopes of lifting the trophy.
Nicholls, who was crowned champion trainer for the twelfth time in 2020/21, typically has his team in top form as we head into this busy phase of the season, capped by a memorable victory for Frodon in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal at the end of last month.
Only Elliott and McCain have trained more winners than Nicholls since the start of October. For that period Nicholls is ranked sixth by run-to-form percentage (49.11%), ninth by percentage of rivals beaten (59.76%) and fifth by strike rate (25.89%).
It would be another huge training performance from Nicholls should Lalor win the Paddy Power Gold Cup, making his first start for the yard since arriving during the summer. Lalor has dropped to a good mark judged on the pick of his form over fences, but he ended his time with Kayley Woollacott totally out of sorts, never looking likely to end a losing run stretching back to this meeting in 2018.
Nicholls could launch a two-pronged attack on Saturday’s feature contest with Lalor being joined by Simply The Betts, another new recruit to the yard, while Gelino Bello in Friday’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and Politologue in Sunday’s Shloer Chase also feature in a strong team.
However, if there is one trainer with a stronger group of horses to run at the November Meeting, then it is probably Dan Skelton. As well as Protektorat, Skelton will be able to call upon the exciting novice chasers My Drogo and Third Time Lucki – both odds-on favourites for their respective races at the fixture – not to mention the Champion Chase runner-up Nube Negra in the Shloer Chase.
Perhaps the most fascinating runner from the Skelton yard is West Cork, who has been well backed to win the Greatwood Hurdle in recent days. West Cork showed useful form as a novice hurdler back in 2019/20, but this represents by far his toughest test yet on handicap debut, particularly as he’ll be returning from 631 days on the sidelines.
In terms of overall form, Skelton also has a bit to find with each of the trainers mentioned above, ranking only nineteenth by run-to-form percentage and twentieth by percentage of rivals beaten.
The yard has sent out 20 winners since the start of October – the fourth-most of any trainer in Britain and Ireland for that period – but they have come at a strike rate of just 15.38%, underlining that there is still room for improvement as we head into the winter.