Lydia Hislop's Road to Cheltenham

Having been parked for three weeks, we resume on the Road To Cheltenham with our warning lights flashing and a police escort. Caution: wide load ahead.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' Champion Hurdle archive

Running plans for the Champion Hurdle suddenly crystalised during the past fortnight. Of course it was Willie Mullins who applied the solvent and turned up the heat; he’s now at the filtering stage after which he’ll let things cool until 8 March when Limini will surely be added to the line-up.

She’ll probably face a maximum of eleven or twelve rivals, at my best guess constituting of: Brain Power, Buveur D’Air, Cyrius Darius, Footpad, My Tent Or Yours, Petit Mouchoir, Sceau Royal, The New One, Wicklow Brave and Yanworth.

Tombstone may also be supplemented, although that likelihood was reduced when the automatic 10lb penalty for Being Irish was erroneously not applied to his rating by Phil Smith, who of course single-handedly assesses all horses trained in Europe. Ch’Tibello is 50/50 for the race, if recovering from a breathing operation swiftly enough.

This is potentially the largest field since Punjabi beat 22 rivals in 2009, albeit Annie Power faced 11 opponents last year. In the preceding three years however, the Champion Hurdle had failed to muster double figures.

For the second year running, Limini’s stablemate Yorkhill is shaping up to be my biggest Festival frustration. Last year I argued all season he should run in the Neptune but resigned myself to not backing him – even when he was NRNB, stalled nincompoop that I was – due to his until-he-wasn’t-declared Supreme target. This time I resolved to back my own opinion regardless and have done so not once but twice – both wrongly, as it’s more than likely to turn out. Curses. At least the Champion Hurdle option was NRNB… (More on this exasperating creature under novice chasing.)

On his Cheltenham-organised stable tour, Mullins commented: “I did briefly think about switching him back to hurdles after [Faugheen and Annie Power] met with their setbacks but I had a quick chat with [owner] Graham Wylie and we decided to stick with our original decision.”

(Throughout this edition of The Road, I’m quoting from Kevin Blake’s At The Races copy when citing Mullins’ words from this open day. He also reported the trainer succinctly obliterating speculation that Un De Sceaux could be re-routed from chasing to contest this race. “It has never really come into my mind for him,” Mullins said.)

After the latest forfeit stage, Mullins had been left with (for him) the distinctly unsatisfactory position of five entries – Diakali, Footpad, Nichols Canyon, Wicklow Brave and Vroum Vroum Mag – none of whom Ruby Walsh could or would have been gagging to ride for various reasons.

Mullins even raised the likelihood that last year’s third Nichols Canyon could miss the Festival entirely. “He has had an in-and-out season and I might just leave him off until the Punchestown,” he said. “I’ve changed a few things with him at home recently and if he starts to sparkle, he might go to Cheltenham yet but at the moment he isn’t looking the likeliest of runners there.”

The best remaining option might therefore have been the mare Vroum Vroum Mag but she had struggled to quell an inferior rival at Doncaster in January when Mullins believes she was “brewing some sort of cold". However given she only “seems to be coming back to herself in recent days”, that probably wouldn’t have been soon enough to propel her into the much deeper waters of even a depleted Champion Hurdle.

Fortunately, that potential quandary was rendered academic when Limini torched former stable companion Apple’s Jade at Punchestown last week. It was her first run since the end of April and her long-stated target had been the OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, so a thoroughly convincing performance was required to shake the tree. Consider her two-length success an early windfall.

“I went to Punchestown questioning whether I was mad to run her there, as it was hard to see her not having a hard race with Apple’s Jade there. With just three weeks to Cheltenham that would be far from ideal so I debated whether I should take her out of the race or not,” Mullins confessed.

“I just hoped it wouldn’t turn into a slog and everything fell into place for her. I was very happy with how she settled and jumped. While I thought she had improved based on her homework, I wasn’t sure she had improved that much and that leads you to question whether Apple’s Jade ran up to her form. However, more important is that Limini didn’t have a hard race and has come out of it well.”

Limini definitely received the more optimal ride compared with Apple’s Jade, who pressed on with Limini's stablemate Whiteout from the third and took over the lead herself nearing the sixth. Rider Bryan Cooper did then take a pause when her duelling partner fell four out but she was still a tad vulnerable to Walsh’s attack. Another limiting factor to the literal form is that Apple’s Jade appears to benefit from a run when returning from a break, as she was here.

However Limini did indeed settle well and jump satisfactorily; she perhaps lacked total fluency at one or two obstacles but she was entitled to be a shade rusty. Given the joker 7lb mares’ allowance she’ll receive from (likely) all rivals in the Champion Hurdle, it was nonetheless the calibre of success legitimately to prompt thoughts of greater things. 

Mullins said it’s “50/50” between her two targets. “I had a quick chat with Rich [Ricci] and we both said we wouldn’t chat much more until the morning she would have to be supplemented,” he said. “A lot depends on how Vroum Vroum Mag is between now and then, too, but the more I think about it, if Vroum Vroum Mag is fine and sparkling, we might take a punt with Limini.”

Mullins is unconcerned by a return to two miles for Limini. In last year’s Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – admittedly against vastly inferior rivals – she bombed through the race but she did get left behind from the second last when facing geldings Buveur D’Air and Petit Mouchoir on her next start at Aintree. The ground was much softer on the latter occasion and perhaps suited those rivals better than this Flat-bred mare; she’d also been too keen. Either that or she was outclassed, of course.

A strongly run Champion Hurdle would suit her – as it surely will be with Petit Mouchoir leading, under the tactics that have probably helped to transform him into a Grade One force this season for Henry de Bromhead, and The New One not giving him a second’s peace. At 13/2 or 6/1 she’s worth a covering win-only bet to replace our Yorkhill one; like that one, it’s imperative we take NRNB – which means almost all bookmakers bar Ladbrokes, Coral and Hills.

Yanworth didn’t impress everyone in the immediate aftermath of winning the Kingwell Hurdle last month but my interpretation errs on the positive. He was travelling well enough until getting unbalanced on landing at the penultimate flight but knuckled down well – in a manner you wouldn’t have been certain of last season – to win with his ears pricked by a length at the line.

He was conceding 4lbs to both of his closest pursuers, Ch’Tibello and Sceau Royal, and will be another horse to benefit from a strongly run race and a less sharp track. Alan King opted to apply cheekpieces to “sharpen up his jumping” here because he doesn’t believe in trying something new in the Champion Hurdle itself.

“It was just to make him a bit slicker through the air,” King said in his latest At The Races stable tour. "He is a horse that is totally genuine but he does like to have a look around. He is a bit slow over a hurdle when he gets in tight and I did think at Wincanton he was much sharper. If anything, he does jump a hurdle like a fence.”

Yet the most important point about this effort is the fact it was his first since contracting a minor muscle problem – a point his trainer was rightly keen to make after victory in the race he also won with subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Katchit in 2008.

“Considering Yanworth’s interrupted build-up, he will definitely come on a lot for this run as he was only 90% this afternoon,” King asserted. If you availed yourself of some of the inflated post-race prices until the markets saw sense, good move. In my mind, his credentials were enhanced.

Perhaps the biggest negative for his chances happened a week later however when Barry Geraghty – who may or may not have chosen him anyway – suffered an injury in a fall from Charli Parcs that will force him to watch the Festival on TV. Yanworth hasn’t been ridden by anyone else since his bumper days and does take some knowing.

Trainer Dan Skelton felt runner-up Ch’Tibello didn’t finish off his race as well as expected and promptly agreed with his vet a soft-palate operation. If he fails to make Cheltenham, the plan becomes Punchestown. This news came out shortly after the disappointment of finding stablemate and 2016 County Hurdle winner Superb Story had suffered a small tendon tear and misses the rest of the season.

King was initially disappointed with third-placed Sceau Royal, who travelled strongly in the straight but floundered as he came under pressure. But if as I do, you forgive him failing to get home in the Fighting Fifth then you should also dismiss this run in soft ground. It’s an attitude that’s more lenient than I’d ideally favour – hence the covering bet on Limini – but his 33/1 is one of the few roomy prices left.

Clearly, his case hinges not only on him being far more effective on a sound surface – logical for a horse that travels so kindly and jumps so slickly – but on such going to actually materialise. Although it’s still too early to call the likely ground at fast-drying Cheltenham, the latest news suggests there may be some cut.

Clerk of the course Simon Claisse this Wednesday reported the Old Course to be “predominantly good-to-soft… with maybe a bit of soft in there”; the New Course was similar. He described the outlook as “unsettled” for the next ten days “with anything between 20 and 30 millimetres of rain” forecast. That much rain “would bring the going closer to soft” but Claisse also warned that this season’s weather has proved the most difficult accurately to predict in his 17 years’ experience at the track.

Returning to the Kingwell form, both Rayvin Black and Irving were beaten much further than when facing Buveur D’Air at Sandown, although that winner never came off the bridle. The fact remains that Yanworth has achieved more than Buveur D’Air at this stage and may be less reliant on cut in the ground.

Noel Fehily, Aidan Coleman and Mark Walsh must be in the mix for the rides on the JP McManus-owned trio Buveur D’Air, Yanworth and My Tent Or Yours with the first two jockeys both having ridden the first named and Fehily the last named. (Incidentally, McManus’s racing manager Frank Berry stated after Sutton Place won the Boyne Hurdle that he will not be supplemented.)

Nicky Henderson has talked up the senior member of the green-and-gold-hooped party of late, even speculating prior to Geraghty’s injury that he “might surprise you and get on Tent”.

“He’s in really good shape and when he finished second in it last year, we said he would win it this year,” he said during his Festival open day. “He has been the forgotten horse in the race and he wasn’t sparkling in those Christmas Hurdles and things but he did a bit of work recently and is in really good form…

“A couple of times this year we have nearly made the running with him and we really should have don in the race at Haydock as it was a bit messy.”

Reverting to more conventional pace-tracking tactics in the Champion Hurdle should suit him better but it’s hard to enthuse about a ten-year-old whose form this season has been at best just under a stone below his peak, albeit it has been better with each start.

Tent and stablemate Brain Power have both been the subjects of positive reports from Henderson’s home gallops, the latter having reportedly worked “brilliantly” with Altior and since having enjoyed one of his trainer’s obligatory pre-Festival racecourse gallops at Kempton. David Mullins again rode, as he will on Tuesday week. Henderson stressed that the soft ground Brain Power encountered there would not have suited.

There’s no doubt Brain Power’s manned-up attitude and handicap form this term merits lining up in this race but he both needs Cheltenham’s ground to dry out and to prove he can reproduce his best form on a left-handed track.

The latter point could yet be coincidence – the only three items of evidence of this orientation are his racecourse debut, well beaten but hampered in the Aintree bumper and below his best on seasonal debut in the Greatwood – but it’s worth being aware of this point.

Another item of active evidence to consider in what has been a busy period for this division, on and off the track, is Tombstone’s defeat of Jezki in the Grade Three Red Mills Trial at Gowran just under a fortnight ago. He didn’t look a natural front-runner when leading after the fourth last but that injection of pace got the odds-on favourite in trouble pretty much immediately. Tombstone made his worst jump of the round at the last but Jezki’s blunder was worse and the winner galloped on strongly to the line.

When fourth in last year’s Supreme, Tombstone lacked the readier pace of third-placed Buveur D’Air after being shuffled back just before halfway on the inside and racing a tad awkwardly, perhaps inclined to hang right, afterwards. He perhaps didn’t get the best of racing positions or, more likely, lacked the pace to hold one.

He shaped then as if needing further than two miles of Cheltenham’s Old Course. He’d be better off going to the County on the New Course – or even the Coral Cup – for which he was allotted a rating of 149, just 1lb “higher” than his Irish mark. Anyone would think they were entirely discrete handicap systems. (Not that they should be, of course.)

Indeed unless it was only intended as an extension of their self-harming point-making exercise, the fact Gigginstown plan(ned) to supplement Tombstone doesn’t seem the greatest vote of confidence in fellow representative Petit Mouchoir, a dull sixth in last year’s Supreme and yet to prove fully effective on undulating tracks.

As Blake highlighted in the latest edition of the Final Furlong Podcast (http://www.attheraces.com/finalfurlongpodcast), Mullins made an interesting comment about Petit Mouchoir’s defeat of Footpad in the Irish Champion Hurdle, when the latter made up cheap lengths late after the winner had cut out a strong pace throughout.

“We are hoping that Cheltenham will suit him better than Petit Mouchoir so wherever he finishes, we are hopeful we’ll be ahead of him,” Mullins said. His view could be coloured, rightly or wrongly, by having trained that rival as seemingly a lesser horse last season but even though Footpad was flattered at Leopardstown, it’s far from an unimaginable scenario if de Bromhead’s grey is indeed disadvantaged by Cheltenham.

It will be interesting to see whether Daryl Jacob chooses Footpad or Sceau Royal for this race. He jumped for the latter in last year’s Triumph where they finished third and 12th respectively – although King has stressed his stable were bang out of form for both Cheltenham and Aintree last term.

Mullins also plans to field Wicklow Brave in the Champion Hurdle, meaning he could have three darts to throw in the race he’s won four times in the past six years. One more victory would bring his tally level with that of Peter Easterby and Henderson.

Wicklow Brave hasn’t raced since beating only two horses home in the 2016 Melbourne Cup and hasn’t jumped a hurdle in anger since finishing third to Identity Thief in the 2015 Fighting Fifth. In between times there was the small matter of him winning the Group One Irish St Leger and going further back he took the 2015 County Hurdle from a (British) mark of 138.

“He has won at the track and that will stand to him,” observed Mullins. “The softer the ground, the better his chance.” It would be quite a feat of code-switching to see him involved especially given his propensity to fluff the start still on occasion haunts him.

Finally, Cyrus Darius built on a justifiably circumspect comeback fourth behind The New One at Haydock in January with victory in a four-runner edition of Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle by seven lengths. The bare facts don’t tell the full story, however, because main rival and actual favourite Born Survivor took a tumble when still in contention at the second last.

That said, the faller had been nudged for a few strides prior to his exit and would probably have been beaten anyway. Winning trainer Malcolm Jefferson said the Champion Hurdle was “certainly a possibility” and suggested further improvement was likely.

He’s effective on a sounder surface and was a highly progressive novice two seasons ago until sustaining a tendon injury after winning his chase debut on his sole start last term. He was capable of winning a Grade Two hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting by ten lengths.

**STOP PRESS** At the BetBright Cheltenham Festival Preview last night, chairman Ricci told the crowd Limini wouldn’t necessarily be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle. Don’t forget that was one of many venues where last year he insisted Vautour would run in the Gold Cup.

When it comes down to brass tacks, Mullins calls dem shots – that’s what he gets paid the big bucks for. Yet my immediate reaction to this news was: has Vroum Vroum Mag’s revival taken a nosedive? Closely followed by: if Limini is now supplemented (a) Mullins strongly fancies her (b) face value of tickets for the 2018 BetBright Preview just got cheaper.

However this pans out, the NRNB element of our Champion Hurdle bet has got it covered. The existing 7/4 NRNB for the OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle makes less appeal right now, with no allowance to distinguish her from her opponents, a real threat in Apple’s Jade and a ground scenario that could play to that rival’s strengths.

OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' Mares' Hurdle archive

Limini’s Punchestown triumph surely sealed the deal on a Mullins switcheroo, meaning mobile super-sub Vroum Vroum Mag’s new fixed abode will be this race.

While the former had yet to be sighted on a racecourse this season and after the latter’s under-the-weather Doncaster scramble, it had seemed as though both might pitch up here – unless Ricci wanted to risk the Stayers’ Hurdle. Yet such was the impact of Limini’s comeback that an even more bold option has emerged.

All season, she had been earmarked as Mullins’ chief hope for this event but the longer she was absent, the more you wondered whether she might go the way of Annie Power and Faugheen. However, from mid-January he began to issue pointedly positive reports on her wellbeing. These proved accurate.

On page 138 of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide for 2017 [https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/book-review:-betting-guide/39220], Tony Keenan (@RacingTrends) highlights Mullins’ “superlative record” with switching his horses from “a seemingly obvious target”. Although this is a source of frustration for many punters, Keenan argues that it can ultimately work in our favour. “He must be so convinced by the rightness of his switch that punters should sit up and take notice,” he concludes.

Of course, Vroum Vroum Mag won this race last year and her trainer has lifted the trophy in eight of its nine editions – even when Annie Power infamously fell at the last with the race at her mercy in 2015, stable companion Glen’s Melody was on hand to pick up the pieces. Mullins is quite simply ridiculously long-suited in talented mares.

But this is shaping up to be a much tougher ask than last year – one of the reasons why a two- or three-pronged attack from Ricci, even involving Limini, still can’t quite be entirely counted out (although it tends not to be his style to run more than one horse in any one race that often).

His top-class novice Let’s Dance is another floater here, given Mullins keeps contradicting himself to some extent by citing the two-mile mares’ novice as her target but ascribing her improvement to stepping up in trip. However, she has other novice-hurdling options also.

Vroum Vroum Mag will need to shake off her cold in time even to contest this least lofty of her potential targets and Mullins this week was cautiously upbeat about that prospect.

“We gave her antibiotics when she came home and she seems to be coming back to herself in recent days,” he said. “We would find it difficult to run her in a Champion Hurdle off the back of that performance so the Mares’ Hurdle seems the obvious target for her.”

There’s not much between her and Apple’s Jade judged on their Fairyhouse encounter when the latter enjoyed superior race-fitness and better tactics to succeed by a short head in receipt of 4lbs weight-for-age. Here they would meet off level weights.

It’s possible Apple’s Jade would be the more effective were the first-day going to turn out soft and she’s likely to build on her defeat by Limini last month for the reasons given above – a slightly too aggressive ride and the patterning of her improving for a run after a break. Again, if you took advantage of the overreaction to that defeat, well done.

In his recent stable tour, trainer Gordon Elliott said: “I’d be hoping that better ground and getting a lead off something would suit her better at Cheltenham as she can be a bit idle in her races. To look at her, you’d say she takes her racing well and she’s been beaten on her two runs back from a break for me, so hopefully she can come on a bit from it.”

Last year’s surprise 66/1 second Rock On The Moor has been below her best this season after failing to take to fences but this was the scene of a marked upswing in her form 12 months ago and she isn’t entirely exposed at this trip on better ground.

Ron’s Dream also reverted to hurdles last month, following an abortive chase debut, with probably a career-best effort to win a Warwick Listed event. Given she ideally needs further and testing ground, it’s hard to see her improving on last year’s ninth in a deeper renewal of this contest.

Like Let’s Dance, progressive Colin’s Sister is a novice but trainer Fergal O’Brien was entertaining this race as an alternative to the Neptune or Albert Bartlett following her best-yet Sandown victory last time out.

"I think the two-mile mares’ novice would be too short for her,” he said. “My heart is saying the David Nicholson, that is the one to win.” She wouldn’t be out of place here but would need to prove she can reproduce her best form on less arduous ground.

In other news in this division, Kotkikova is out for the season and stepped down at the forfeit stage but fellow McManusite Jer’s Girl remains on target after a racecourse gallop at Fairyhouse. Trainer Gavin Cromwell asserted that she’d “definitely matured” and would be suited by better ground but she’ll need to find a good 10lbs of improvement to trouble the favourites.

Of more interest currently – even though she ideally needs a bit more of a trip – is Lifeboat Mona, whom trainer Paul Nicholls has confirmed is on target for this race.

Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

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Jessica Harrington seemed unperturbed after Jezki’s defeat by Tombstone in the Red Mills Trial, ascribing his muted performance to the heavy ground that she’d feared beforehand.

It’s inarguable Jezki is at his best on a sounder surface but you’d still have preferred to have seem him build on his winning return from a near 21-month absence last month. I wouldn’t argue that he ‘bounced’ in the strict sense of the concept, given that return success at Navan was a more than a stone below his peak form.

Here, he was immediately outpaced when Tombstone took over front-running duties on the approach to the third last and rather than attempt to capitalize on that rival’s flat-footed landing at the final flight, he made a far more grave blunder of his own. He had nothing left on the run-in.

He now brings this insufficient level of form to a contest at which distance he’s either unexposed or not entirely proven – depending on your point of view. It certainly silenced any lingering doubts that he might switch to the Champion Hurdle. This surely means he plays second fiddle to McManus’s justifiably short-priced favourite Unowhatimeanharry.

The absence of Geraghty shouldn’t be a material problem for that horse given his straightforwardness is a key asset and Fehily rode him for most of last season anyway. Mark Walsh will surely maintain his partnership with Jezki and on balance this nine-year-old remains one of the more credible threats in a one-sided contest.

On the same day at Haydock, the year-older Zarkandar came back from the brink with a near four-length defeat of stablemate Aux Ptits Soins in the Grade Two Rendlesham Hurdle. He was well backed and largely sauntered through the race, bar for the written-into-his-contract closing-stages blunder.

It’s been almost two years since he made a chance-ending error behind Cole Harden at the second last in what was then the World Hurdle and his form has been nothing like that good in every subsequent start.

Nicholls had made the familiar move of cauterizing this horse’s palate after he was well beaten in the Long Walk at Ascot and it resulted in his best effort in all that time. However, the suspicion still remains that this race tested his stamina to destruction even in his prime.

Third-placed Agrapart ran creditably enough on his first try at a new trip but a series of errors didn’t help the fact he had to concede 8lbs to the principals. He may also have preferred more testing ground.

The coalescing of Mullins’ plans leaves us without our curveball NRNB notion of Vroum Vroum Mag in this event. But De Plotting Shed’s second to Sutton Place in last month’s Boyne Hurdle ����� probably his best effort yet – enhanced stablemate Shaneshill’s Gowran form.

This horse has peaked at the Festival in the past two seasons and at his open day Mullins observed: “I think he has improved a bit and he looks to have a solid each-way chance.”

If new trainer Gary Moore gets his way, emphatic Fontwell winner Camping Ground will take up neither the offer of top-weight in the Coral Cup nor a role in this event. He favours a tilt at the Grade One Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f instead but his owner Graham Porter would prefer a shot at this race.

The testimony of the clock underpinned the visual impression of his 29-length success in the Grade Two National Spirit last Sunday and attests that such a bold campaign is entirely justified. He’s very classy in the right circumstances but given we’ve seen nothing like this since his 2016 Relkeel success in January 2016, those circumstances might be quite specific.

“There was obviously something going on in the horse’s life because those who rode him said he was a different horse each time. We played around with him at home. We did everything we could and [former trainer] Robert Walford would have done the same. Maybe it was just a change of scenery,” Moore said afterwards when asking to account for the horse’s revival.

“I’ve treated him like a good horse and a lot of effort has gone into him, believe me. Graham is very keen to go to the Stayers’ Hurdle but personally I think his trip is 2m5f. He has a very high cruising speed and has galloped them into the ground here. Over three miles I think you would be pushing your luck.”

Perhaps Moore can get him to sustain his form but this horse would more than likely also need to prove he can handle a quickish surface if the usual ground prevails at Aintree.

Titleholder Lil Rockerfeller missed the National Spirit due to being suddenly "off colour” according to trainer Neil King. “He was in such great order in the last two weeks but a horse has to be 100% to run in a race like that,” he lamented. “We’ll get to work with him at home and hopefully he can still get to Cheltenham, though he won’t have another run beforehand now.”

A setback is usually unalloyed bad news so close to the Festival and tempers enthusiasm for an otherwise over-priced 25/1 shot. However, this hardy horse has displayed flashes of ennui this season and it might be that pitching up fresh to Cheltenham proves more of an advantage to him, provided his issue is a minor one. His seconds to Unowhatimeanharry and (conceding weight) Yanworth were not flukes.

Meanwhile, David Pipe has stated the “in and out” Un Temps Pour Tout will run either here or in the Ultima Handicap Chase he won last year. Although part-owner Andy Stewart has mentioned the Stayers’ Hurdle for Old Guard, Nicholls has since asserted he heads for the Coral Cup. His Cleeve performance hinted he might run rather well in it. 

Talking of the Coral Cup, Ordo Ab Chao was shaping rather well on his first start for almost two years at Ascot last month before being squeezed up but sadly he’s only entered here. His mark of 134 may be of interest at Aintree.

Timico Gold Cup

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' Gold Cup archive

After a diverting bout of virtual okey-cokey snowballed in the minds of some bandwagon betting-exchange players, trainer Colin Tizzard has confirmed Thistlecrack is indeed out of the Gold Cup due to sustaining a tendon injury.

A second scan had summoned up the Ghosts Of Scandals Past, Kicking King and Binocular, and prompted the former favourite’s price to tumble from 989/1 to 10/1 on Betfair last Sunday. Exchange spokesman Barry Orr contextualised  to the activity when reporting £22,124 was traded on the horse from Sunday morning until 1.30pm on Tuesday at odds between 589/1 and 5/1.

Part owner Heather Snook since explained the reason for the second scan to the Racing Post and was unequivocal about his non-runner status. “We just wanted to see the extent of the problem,” she said. “It’s not massive and I’ve seen worse but he won’t be doing anything for the rest of the season. We’ll monitor it and probably scab it again at Easter.

“He’s out and that’s it. Whatever Colin said last Tuesday is the same this Tuesday. Everybody can get on with Cheltenham without worrying about what we’re doing.”

The absence of buccaneering novice Thistlecrack robs the Gold Cup of one of its most compelling storylines but because his cloak of invincibility had already dropped due to his defeat by the late and much-missed Many Clouds, it won’t have encouraged any new contenders to turn this way.

It might not even require a tactical re-think for the key connections, who would have been seeking to create (or contribute to) conditions that exploited the flaws laid bare in Thistlecrack’s jumping. But their research would have found that scenario occurring naturally, with Smad Place, Native River and even a reborn Don Poli on hand to force or press the pace from an early stage.

Native River’s defeat of Le Mercurey and a lacklustre Bristol De Mai in the Denman Chase at Newbury seemed to reveal a new dimension to his talents. He jumped especially well for Aidan Coleman, who was deputising for the ultra-professional Richard Johnson and executing the less forceful tactics his usual rider had suggested for a target so near to the Gold Cup. Native River extended readily in the straight, albeit admittedly having controlled the pace on a flat track at which he is proven and in a time inferior to a handicap over the course and distance that same day.

Yet it was again noticeable how much better he travelled than at Chepstow, though whether that was due to the less undulating track or less testing going is open to debate. Whatever, this Newbury success suggested Johnson might not be pushing the ears off him before the first Gold Cup circuit is done. He could instead be among the various pressers-on from around four out – and that might perversely result in the race becoming an even more arduous test.

Bristol De Mai was oddly held up last in Newbury’s three-runner affair, having delivered a career best at Haydock on his previous start when allowed to bowl along prominently. Jacob didn’t look happy from an early stage so the natural conclusion is that the Peter Marsh took more out of him than had appeared at the time. Further evidence has since emerged.

“Daryl didn’t think he was going from about the third fence,” said Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. “Nigel [Twiston-Davies, trainer] said he was very lame on a joint, his near-fore. He whacked his joint in the race, got a cut and was very sore the next day.

“He did jump very steeply over a couple early doors and I suspect that’s when he did it. Daryl said he was hanging to the right, which was away from the joint he hit. But he’s sound now and returned to cantering… We’re going to recharge his batteries and Nigel is hopeful he can get him to Cheltenham.”

Clearly this minor setback is not ideal so close to this biggest test of six-year-old Bristol De Mai’s career to date and trying a trip over which he’s unproven.

The impossible dream of the Dickinson Five – a steal at 150/1, £10 maximum stake, every little helps – for Tizzard is now a tricast at best with Alary having been re-routed to Ryanair after failing to complete on either UK start. This is apparently not Gold Cup form.

But Cue Card kept the aspidistra flying with a resounding 15-length triumph in the Grade One Ascot Chase over 2m5f. He didn’t have to be at his best to achieve this, with many of his rivals underperforming to varying degrees.

A breakdown of his performance on times doesn’t underpin this achievement to anything like the degree that his Betfair Chase success did but it was step forward from this 11-year-old’s ordinary King George effort after which his trainer reported he had suffered from an inflamed leg.

The Ascot form doesn’t merit him being favourite and his chance hinges solely on that Haydock effort or last term’s form. To place his task in some context, were he to win he’d be the oldest Gold Cup winner since 12-year-old What A Myth’s triumph in 1969.

Stablemate Theatre Guide completes the Tizzard trio going for Gold and he registered a career-best effort when third in Kempton’s BetBright Chase last Saturday. However, that form still falls well short of what’s required here and even his trainer had to cite Gold Cup mythmaker Norton’s Coin, a winner at 100/1 in 1990, as his precedent.

However, another new player for this contest emerged the following day when Sizing John took a slowly run edition of the Irish Gold Cup. The threat to this column’s Ryanair ante-post bet was always live from owners Alan and Ann Potts, who in the past had tried to fashion a Gold Cup horse from Champion Chase hero Sizing Europe. That’s why the NRNB proviso was paramount.

I don’t fancy him for the Gold Cup. His Leopardstown success was more of a test of speed than stamina and so suited him ideally. As already discussed, this Gold Cup is going to be conducted at a strong pace that will only build from around four out. Sizing John will be patiently ridden to challenge late but that move may not materialize at all.

I suspect Irish Gold Cup runner-up Empire Of Dirt would reverse his form with the winner over 3m2f at Cheltenham, having improved this term for stepping back up to around three miles. Sadly, Michael O’Leary has dictated – as he is entirely within his rights to do – that he participates in the Ryanair instead.

An end-to-end Gold Cup gallop – under a more orthodox ride than last year – will suit Don Poli more than the circumstances of his latest Leopardstown third A spot of hunting has proved as effective as Prozac but it’s still possible to envisage him being taken off his feet when the pace rises in the Gold Cup.

Some observers believe More Of That would have played a part in the finish had he not unseated Mark Walsh at the last in the Irish Gold Cup, having travelled well, but I think he was only holding his position in a steadily run race when he came down.

That said, it was his most encouraging run since the first half of his novice-chasing season but more as the stepping-stone to the Ryanair… until he was removed from the race three days later.

Stablemate and fellow McManusite Minella Rocco also unseated his rider in the same Grade One event but at a far earlier stage. That means he’s failed to complete on his last two starts and I fully expected connections to dodge Cheltenham but racing manager Berry has since stated he remains on course for the Gold Cup.

“Minella Rocco made a stupid mistake and landed on top of the fence down the back straight. I’s say it will be tight whether or not we’d be able to get a run into him before the Gold Cup especially after travelling over and back from Britain to run at Leopardstown but we’ll see,” he said.

Supporters of last-time deck-hitters can cling onto the Mr Mulligan precedent, who fell in the 1996 King George prior to winning the Gold Cup three months later. But while that might have been regarded as misfortune, two non-completions looks like carelessness.

Last year’s NH Chase winner has never been the most reliable vessel but he seems to be in maximum clutz mode this season. As for Champagne West (who’s been wisely scratched from the Grand National), first-time hazard lights might be a useful aid for Cheltenham.

Djakadam arrived at last year’s Gold Cup having fallen on his latest start and his price has contracted after Mullins persuasively restated that key point at his stable open day.

“Going into the Gold Cup last season he had to come back from that bad cut he got at Cheltenham [due to falling in the Cotswold Chase] and we only just had him ready in time but we’ve had a much clearer run this season,” he said.

“We decided not to run him in the Irish Gold Cup as the fact that it was a week closer to the Cheltenham Gold Cup wasn’t ideal. I think he is a more mature horse this season and is the age that many chasers are in their prime.

���I was happy with his run in the Lexus but afterwards we felt we could have used different tactics that might have worked better. The most important thing is that everything has gone right for him lately. I don’t know if he’ll need to improve on what he has done in the last two years to win the race this year.”

Nicholls and owner Andy Stewart still believe Saphir Du Rheu is a Gold Cup contender following his emphatic success in a Kelso conditions chase. The horse is still only eight and could Go Big rather than take up his first-day entry in the Ultima Handicap Chase off a well-in mark of 156.

“He’s been a frustrating horse… and is just starting to get his act together a little bit. When he won the Grade One at Aintree we thought he was going to be a superstar over fences but he lost his way a little bit, jumping,” he said.

“On known form he isn’t going to trouble the main ones but he could run a real tidy race and finish fifth or sixth. He has plenty of ability and I know we haven’t seen the best of him yet.”

(Incidentally Nicholls reminds me of a girl I went to school with in Birmingham, who went overnight to Stirling University for an interview and returned with a Scottish accent. When Walsh was at Ditcheat, it was all “in Leopardstown”, “the last day” and “out in trip”; now Sean Bowen’s there, Nicholls’ adjective of choice is “tidy”. Real tidy.)

In other Gold Cup news, Irish Cavalier for the third start running would have hated the ground behind Cue Card at Ascot, and Tea For Two, who had already beaten Alary when that horse fell at Exeter last month, will ensure Lizzie Kelly becomes the first woman since 1984 and only the second in history to ride in the Gold Cup. Their latest success also marked the milestone of Kelly losing her 5lb claim – in a race in which she couldn’t use it.

Tea For Two’s connections these days argue his best form isn’t reliant on right-handed tracks, despite his record to date suggesting otherwise and them being on record stating the contrary.

On the same day at Exeter, the highly likeable Perfect Candidate marked yet another career best this season via winning the veteran’s chase and now has the Grand National as his primary aim. Sausalito Sunrise is set to suffer the indignity of a switch to the cross-country chase. That said, trainer Philip Hobbs isn’t bad at finding the right horse for that discipline.

But the biggest shock was saved for last when Twiston-Davies announced he intends to bypass the Gold Cup in favour of his primary Grand National target with Blaklion, who delivered his best performance since winning last year’s RSA Chase when second in Haydock���s Grand National Trial last month.

“I would love to run Blaklion in the Gold Cup but we have to think patiently as that could affect his Grand National chance. Surely you are going to be a few pounds better by not running,” he reasoned uncharacteristically.

Yet just as the world started to spin in front of my eyes, Twister pulled it back with his final comment. “We have won [the Grand National] twice with horses who did run at the Festival but they weren’t real certainties,” he concluded. And all is right with the world.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' Champion Chase archive

Attempting to concede 5lbs to Altior was no doubt an impossible task for Fox Norton but it was exacerbated by their encounter in the Game Spirit being his first run since sustaining a little cut ”right on the tendon” when winning at Cheltenham last November. In the immediate aftermath, Tizzard proclaimed he wouldn’t wish to take the winner on again.

He has since observed that Fox Norton “spent a month in his box beforehand”, didn’t jump that well at Newbury and “was stiff behind for a week” afterwards. So his considered reaction to that form was to come out fighting despite the towering reputation of odds-on favourite Douvan.

“If we get a clear run in the next three weeks, he will take some beating,” he said. “Douvan is a very good horse but you should not be afraid of one.”

Tizzard maintained that the Ryanair would remain an option for until at least the five-day stage but provided nothing (further) goes wrong with stablemate Alary – crucially also in the Potts ownership – it seems all but certain that Fox Norton will run here.

On the Final Furlong Pod, Kevin Blake argued that Douvan’s best efforts have not in the past been registered at Cheltenham and “has never beaten a horse rated above the low-150s that ran their race on the day” over hurdles or fences. Given Fox Norton is rated 166, he was rightly pointing out that we shouldn’t be putting the crown on his head before the race has been run. 

With Sire De Grugy a no-show last month in the Chepstow handicap chase he won so impressively in 2016, it’s starting to seem unlikely he’ll make the Festival at all – whether for this race or the Grand Annual. He’s not raced since unseating Jamie Moore early in the Desert Orchid Chase last December.

“It depends on how he works,” admitted father and trainer Gary Moore. “If he doesn’t improve, he probably won’t run again this season. It does need to improve but saying that his last piece of work was with Camping Ground. It went very well but he didn’t work as well as Camping Ground did, though.”

Finally, Michael O’Leary took time off from his very public fuming about Phil Smith to state that The Game Changer is Gigginstown’s sole potential Champion Chase contender and might even only take part if something happens to Douvan. However, if that unfortunate event were to transpire Altior could step into the breach thus providing potential opponents with a similar problem.

O’Leary’s declaration means Tell Us More is a no-show. According to Blake, Elliott favours a tilt at the County rather than even the Grand Annual with that horse.

It’s possible Alisier D’Irlande could have bought himself back into this race with his latest Naas success but trainer de Bromhead said he had no plans beyond this achievement and that soft ground was an imperative.

But he also reported that last year’s third Special Tiara is in “mighty” form despite signs hitherto to the contrary this term. He puts that down to (plausibly) overly soft ground at Cheltenham twice and (less so) to Kempton not suiting ideally.

Finally, Henderson is considering this race for left-jumping faint-heart L’Ami Serge on the very sound basis that “there is very good prize money for second and third”. “That is my thought with him a little bit – he is good going left-handed and he is good around Cheltenham,” he said. Provided L’Ami Serge doesn’t demolish the inner wing of every fence, this is a feasible plan.

So adding up the numbers, all this suggests the final Queen Mum field will probably come in at the lower end of the six-to-ten range.

Ryanair Chase

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The only racecourse evidence for this division during the past few weeks has been almost entirely negative in one form or another.

Following their successes of rather different import, both Sizing John and Ballycasey are likely to miss the race – the former in favour of the Gold Cup and the latter to remain in Ireland in an all-spare-hands-to-the-deck bid to help Mullins retain his trainers’ title.

Taquin Du Seuil and Traffic Fluide have both been thumped, the latter again failing to beat a rival. I suppose it’s possible Road To Riches could run here, the race in which he was mugged for second last year after doing all the hard yards. But he also ran a shocker in first-time cheekpieces on unsuitably soft ground in the Irish Gold Cup and doesn't appear to have been the same horse since taking a tumble at Punchestown last April.

Both Cue Card and Bristol De Mai were removed from this race at the forfeit stage and Village Vic is set to follow them, with trainer Philip Hobbs instead set on the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate.

Tizzard still insists Alary is “a good horse” and believes “we saw a bit more at Exeter” yet the facts of the matter are that he’s failed to complete on both his starts to date in Britain. He was found to be coughing and scoped dirty after pulling up on his debut and last time took a plunging fall at the third last after having jumped very well and travelled strongly. He’d already been headed and swiftly quelled by Gold Cup-bound Tea For Two. His lack of fight and the suddenness of his departure were disconcerting.

His number-one fan is still a believer, mind. “When we jumped him this week, he was a man of a horse and didn’t think he had just had a fall. He arched his back and landed 15 foot clear the other side,” Tizzard asserted. Seriously: who has kidnapped the real Colin Tizzard? Are you Willie Muir in disguise?

Although it’s hard to seriously entertain Alary for any race right now – even though a drop in trip is a sensible first move – provided he continues to amaze on the gallops, his presence should keep stablemate Fox Norton out of this contest and in the Champion Chase.

At least two, if not three, of the key players are definite contenders, however, in Un De Sceaux, Empire Of Dirt and Sub Lieutenant. In fact Mullins has gone so far as to day the Ryanair is the plan (“at the moment”) for last year’s Queen Mum runner-up “regardless of the ground”.

“I’m not worried about his stamina given that he won over two-and-a-half miles on heavy ground in France as a four-year-old,” he reiterated. “He is a lot more settled now than he was then and I felt his last run showed just how well he can settle these days.”

O’Leary has decided that “glorified handicapper” and recent Grand National withdrawal Empire Of Dirt runs here rather than in the Gold Cup and I suspect that might be the wrong call. This horse has improved for a step up in trip and indeed looked the more likely than his Irish Gold Cup conqueror Sizing John to relish 3m2f. The vibes seem to suggest trainer Elliott would have preferred to go for Gold but dissent doesn’t pay the bills.

Sub Lieutenant might have beaten Sizing John at Thurles earlier this season had the omission of the final fence not provided the extra test the winner needed against a fine-jumping rival. His current wellbeing was also termed “mighty” by de Bromhead, who added that he’s hoping for the further advantage of better ground.

He is one of the pace angle in the race alongside Josses Hill, with whom Henderson bypassed an unnecessarily hard race against Cue Card in testing ground at Ascot in favour of keeping the reformed snooker table fresh for the Festival. Stable companion Vaniteux will join him and their trainer rightly says a sound surface is crucial to both of them

Having missed the Irish Gold Cup due to the testing ground, it seems most likely that Zabana will run here rather than being asked to prove his stamina for further the following day.

Novice chasers

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' novice chasers archive 

A thoroughly convincing performance from Altior to account for three more experienced rivals in the Game Spirit earned him an official rating of 170, 1lb higher than former stablemate Sprinter Sacre had achieved at the same stage in his career and higher than either he or Douvan had earned by the end of their novice seasons.

His straightforwardness was one of the most notable aspects of this success – that and the way he let rip at the cross fence five out. Rider Nico de Boinville was reunited with him for the first time since their Supreme success last year and creepingly found himself making the running in this four-runner event.

Prior to this, with the flat spot he frequently hit last year prior to powering home in my mind, I’d wondered whether Altior would have to win ugly, making his own running in the Arkle, or forced to accept an unsuitably slow pace. This latest effort suggests he’s impervious to such detail.

The literal form is actually hard to assess because all three rivals had reason not to function at the level of their official rating: Fox Norton was coming back from injury, 2015 Champion Chase hero Dodging Bullets has totally lost his way and Traffic Fluide has been in for repairs for more than a year. Still, Altior trampled all over them.

His jumping technique is essentially excellent, even if he has a tendency still to be slightly airy at his fences at times – the symptoms of nothing more than being a novice still. There were calls for him to take on Douvan in the Queen Mum after this performance – understandably, given both that event and the Arkle risk being totally one-sided contests – and he’s certainly good enough.

But Henderson is running to form, underlining the target is the Arkle except in the unfortunate scenario that something goes wrong with Douvan. That means we must wait 12 months for the compelling prospect of such a clash – if we even get it at all, given stated plans to move Douvan up in trip.

The Game Spirit would surely have made up the minds of any floating voters remaining to flee to the safety of the JLT rather than take on Altior in the Arkle so we can expect a small field for the second race of the 2017 Festival. One of those scurrying for cover is Yorkhill.

“The JLT is the plan and all is good with him. We aren’t considering the Arkle for him but if Altior wants to take us on in the JLT, he’s quite welcome to,” quipped Mullins, from his office far away from the Arkle frontline.

Three weeks ago, I thought the JLT was the outsider of three potential targets for a horse in whom Mullins has such belief but the book is (all but) closed now. What a comedown for a horse that could take his pick of races before Christmas according to connections. As it turns out, the likely fast-run race will help him settle but the New Course may not suit as well as the Old Course might have done and he must prove – live at the Festival – whether a strongly run 2m4f puts his left-kinked jumping under pressure and brings his best game at the finish.

De Bromhead could be pretty much single-handedly responsible for propping up numbers in the Arkle with the possibility of up to four horses representing him: Ordinary World, Some Plan, Three Stars and – still, would you believe it – Identity Thief.

Ordinary World has been “freshened up” since chasing home Min by nine lengths in December and “the better the ground, the better his chance”. Some Plan will be ridden more positively than when the sole finisher in the Irish Arkle and Three Stars – who was thumped by Min in the above race – even more so, if he takes part.

“While I was a bit disappointed with Three Stars last time, he’d been busy up until then and maybe just needed the freshen up that we’ve now given him. I also think he needs to be ridden aggressively and we didn’t do that on the day,” de Bromhead said. 

After missing his engagement in the Flyingbolt at Navan on the back of failing to complete the last twice, I had assumed that Identity Thief wouldn’t make it to the church on time but de Bromhead hasn’t ruled out a rush job with a defrocked vicar and two random witnesses off the street.

“He’s much better in the last few days and is pretty much 100% now,” he said in his stable tour. “We are running out of time to get another run into him before Cheltenham but there is a 2m1f novice chase at Leopardstown on 5 March that might work for him.”

Other Arkle possibles include Flying Angel, who appeared to win an ordinary edition of the Kingmaker in heavy ground last month, Forest Bihan, whose trainer Brian Ellison fancies to use his turn of foot for a place on better ground and Royal Caviar, Min’s understudy in the Irish Arkle who’d just been joined by Some Plan at the last when suddenly falling. Waiting Patiently would need some cut in order to take part – not impossible (especially on the first day) given the forecast.

Disko laid down his cards for the JLT when reversing his previous form with Our Duke at Leopardstown last month. An attacking ride showed off his bold jumping and trainer Noel Meade, who’d previously mentioned the RSA Chase, appears to have the blessing of O’Leary to tackle the shorter Festival event rather than the JLT. The feeling is he was outstayed over three miles before.

Contrary to early dispatches Politologue predictably runs at the Festival and will take Disko on for the lead here after sealing his participation in the JLT by winning a match at Kempton in a first-time hood. Nicholls has however ruled out stablemate and Sandown flop, Clan Des Obeaux.

Other JLT contenders to note include habitual front-runner Charbel, who has reportedly been coughing and might be hard to restrain even though he’s stepping up to 2m4f for the first time, and Balko Des Flos, who probably put up his best performance yet when almost eight lengths behind Disko last time out. De Bromhead believes this to be his optimum trip.

But Flyingbolt winner Ball D’Arc is reportedly more likely to stay behind in Ireland for Fairyhouse and Frodon, who notched his sixth victory of the season at Kempton last Saturday, misses Cheltenham in favour of Aintree and Ayr.

Mullins spoke of potentially supplementing Bachasson for the JLT after he dotted up at Gowran but sticking to the Fairyhouse plan may be more likely. Behind him, Mall Dini was sent off the beaten favourite for the fourth time in a row and posted another very similar performance. Back in fourth, JLT entry Jett paid no compliment to Yorkhill.

Rock The Kasbah may have resurrected his JLT (or RSA) bid by winning at Chepstow last Saturday but Henderson is inclined to wait for Aintree with the following day’s Fontwell winner Kilcrea Vale.

He is also prevaricating audibly between the JLT and RSA for Whisper but was delighted to get a confidence booster into his main RSA hope Might Bite with an egg-and-spoon success at Doncaster last month. His presence limits enthusiasm for fellow front runner American in the same race.

Talking of the RSA, Bellshill took a tumble both at the last and in the betting when failing to complete (already beaten) behind Disko at Leopardstown and I had suspected he’d bypass the Festival – where he’s twice underperformed, admittedly over inadequate trips – in favour of being saved for significant home targets that would contribute to Mullins’ title ambitions. Seemingly not a bit of it – he still heads to the RSA or the NH Chase.

“I don’t know what to make of his last run, though he did run poorly at that meeting last season, too. He seemed in better form this morning to be fair to him,” said Mullins at his open day. The horse had previously seemed to have come of age over fences.

Roger Loughran committed daylight robbery when dominating the Grade Two Ten Up Chase on Acapella Bourgeois and winning unchallenged 32 lengths clear. Trainer Sandra Hughes believes soft ground is imperative and I suspect this horse would come off worse in a duel for the front with Might Bite – although it would place that horse’s jumping under some pressure.

Behind him, Road To Respect got even further behind after being hampered by the fall of Edwulf but Haymount again disappointed (albeit in ground he’d have hated and over a trip that perhaps stretches) and Anibale Fly plain flopped. Edwulf has since won a handicap at Naas but his jumping remains a potential frailty shouldhe take up either his RSA or NH Chase engagement.

Belami Des Pictons is under consideration for the RSA following his third straight win over fences at Leicester this week but trainer Venetia Williams might well prove keener on his handicap engagements. 

Turning to the NH Chase, I was far from discouraged by the performance of this column’s 25/1 poke Arpege D’Alene when six-and-a-half lengths fourth to Bigbadjohn in the Grade Two Reynoldstown Chase last month.

As I’ve mentioned many times, no chase course in Britain exposes a horse’s need to go left-handed more than Ascot and it was obvious that every time Arpege D’Alene tried to make some ground, he was hindered by adjusting left at his fences.

I know he’s won over hurdles there but the positioning of the larger obstacles is a different thing entirely. It was actually to his great credit that he briefly threatened to get involved approaching two out.

Nicholls was equally unperturbed by this effort. “I know he got beat,” he said. “But it won’t make any difference to his chance as the other day he missed the last two fences and if he hadn’t he would nearly have won at Ascot. He is better going left-handed and really wants cover and 30 runners.”

Paul Jones has rightly pointed out in the Cheltenham Festival element of pauljoneshorseracing.com that Nicholls has a terrible record in the NH Chase - he’s 0 for 17 – but this is the right profile of horse for this tough contest, is proven at Cheltenham and a stayer. The Scottish Grand National will be his subsequent stop but first the highly capable Will Biddick rides him here.

Bigbadjohn was found to have suffered a fibrillating heart after the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster (where he slipped up on a bend when already beaten) and here bounced back in a thrilling finish but under a whip-heavy ride that counted jockey Jonathan Moore out of day one the Festival. It isn’t ideal to have had such a hard race prior to the NH Chase, but trainer Rebecca Curtis is well capable of getting her horses to peak at the Festival.

Runner-up Flintham is a highly likeable horse from a highly likeable family. It’s just like that clan – his full-brother Carruthers and his half-brother Coneygree – that he should have seen off Fletchers Flyer so gamely only to be mugged by the winner in the final strides. His assertive tactics will be hard to pull of over four miles at Cheltenham, mind.

In other target news, King has confirmed that recent Exeter winner and soft-loving Label Des Obeaux, rerouted from the Reynoldstown, will run in the Ultima rather than the NH Chase but Charlie Longsdon will target the RSA rather than the Ultima with Our Kaempfer.

As De Mee represents Nicholls in the RSA ahead of his primary Topham target whereas five-year-old Callett Mad heads for the NH Chase after underperforming in the Towton on “too gluey” ground according to racing manager Bromley. Haydock Grant National Trial third Vintage Clouds could yet contest the RSA, having been removed from the NH Chase.

Gigginstown will be represented in the NH Chase by the Noel Meade-trained A Genie In Abottle and mercurial Munster National winner Tiger Roll from the Elliott yard.  

“You’ll know after two fences whether he fancies it or not, There won’t be many rated higher than him in it and he has winning form at the track which is always a positive. He’ll get the trip and the better ground will suit him. Hopefully he fancies it on the day as he’ll stay all day,” he admitted.

“Lisa O’Neill could well get the ride on him. She’s working very hard here and has been lucky for Gigginstown.”

Henderson definitely fields recent dual winner Premier Bond in the NH Chase but discuss with the owners whether Beware The Bear is too inexperienced to take the plunger at this stage.

Novice hurdlers

Click here for Lydia's 'Road to Cheltenham' novice hurdlers archive

I don’t mind admitting rarely have I been so baffled by the Festival’s novice hurdles in their entirety and at such a late stage. For that reason, I’m going to keep this section relatively brief this week with the plan of closely reviewing the various form-lines afresh in time for next week’s column.

Let’s start with the two novices that dominated the Betfair Hurdle, Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes, who enhanced their credentials for the Supreme by finishing first and second.

Of the two I prefer the former for the Supreme – he’s also in the Neptune and Coral Cup – even though he received 1lb and there was only three-quarters of a length between them at the line. I’m leaning that way due to his proven course form as the 2016 Bumper hero and the inexperience of the latter that contributed him to slightly hanging in behind.

Ballyandy’s success clearly franked the form of Moon Racer, about whom David Pipe has said he won’t make the call between the Champion and Supreme until the declaration stage.

“It was always the intention to give him a mid-season break but it took us longer to get him going than we thought it would and we had intended to give him another run but we haven’t got time for that,” Pipe admitted.

Consul De Thaix missed the Betfair Hurdle due to a setback and may now head down the handicap route at the Festival but an interrupted preparation is a problem whatever the target.

Earlier on that same day, High Bridge maintained his unbeaten record over hurdles, giving weight away and showing he can handle soft ground. However the time was much slower than the Betfair and rider Mr Alex Ferguson won’t be able to claim in the Supreme.

At Exeter the following day, Finian’s Oscar proved he still has four legs and a heartbeat when winning in cruise control by more than four lengths from the splendidly tough mare, Taws, who’s taken superbly to hurdling. The winner moves like a horse that should handle a sound surface and trainer Tizzard currently favours the Neptune over the Supreme.

On the same Exeter card Impulsive Star posted a career best when winning a Pertemps qualifier and could go for the Final or the Albert Bartlett, as the winner of the same race Unowhatimeanharry did last year.

Henderson revealed Jenkins faces a race against time to make the Festival but has an able deputy in Beyond Conceit, who narrowly won a tight three-way finish at Ascot last time out. The winner will contest the Supreme if it’s soft and the Neptune if it’s quicker.

The same stable’s River Wylde beat Elgin by three-and-a-half lengths in the Dovecote but was receiving 3lbs from the runner-up. He travelled strongly and moved through to dispute the lead on the bridle two out before sealing the deal with a good jump at the last. He was a bit gawky, hanging left, but still won convincingly.

He’s in the same ownership as Lough Derg Spirit and one of them might wait for Aintree and miss Cheltenham. Elgin’s jumping let him down but the plan remains the Supreme and fourth-placed Capitaine folded tamely despite a return to positive tactics and a sounder surface. But Peter The Mayo Man again shaped as though further would bring about improvement and might be interesting in the Martin Pipe.

Earlier in the month, Messire Des Obeaux went down fighting in his attempt to concede a whopping 8lbs to the decent Keeper Hill at Huntingdon. Both horses – not to mention third-placed Tommy Rapper – all emerged with their reputations enhanced.

King confirmed that the runner-up heads for the Neptune and expects him to come on for his latest start due to having has an “easy spell” beforehand to enable him to recover from a tough race in the Challow. He’ll re-oppose the winner there and both could be significant players. The third just looked a little less street-smart and is also open to progress; he’s in the Albert Bartlett and Martin Pipe. 

Owned like Keeper Hill by the McNeill family, The World’s End looks an exciting novice and trounced No Hassle Hoff by nine lengths in a Haydock Grade Two. He is set to join the Tizzard-trained pair Elegant Escape and West Approach in the Albert Bartlett.

Over in Ireland, Patrick Mullins told Kevin Blake during his dad’s stable tour that ante-post favourite Melon (who took a walk in the market recently, seemingly without just cause) that this once-raced hurdles winner does have experience of “at least two” schooling hurdles races. Useful information.

Furthermore, although his bare form isn’t up to much and Broken Soul has since let it down, Mullins Snr tellingly observed: “I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon.”

Stablemate Bunk Off Early emerged as a potential Supreme player after racing keenly in the Grade One Deloitte Novice Hurdle but only been headed in the closing stages by the fellow Mullins-trained Bacardys. The winner looks like he should improve significantly for going up in trip for the Neptune.

Grade One winner Saturnas reportedly made a noise when finishing tailed off in the Deloitte according to Walsh and stablemate Invitation Only is out of the Neptune.

Bunk Off Early is in the same ownership as Airlie Beach and Kemboy, for whom the latest vibes are that they run in the Dawn Run and Neptune respectively.

Penhill, Augusta Kate and possibly Augustin are set to represent Mullins in the Albert Bartlett, although the last-named also holds a Neptune entry. But a late decision will be made on which of her various targets Let’s Dance will take up.

Finally, de Bromhead has commented that he’d rather not re-oppose Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett with Monalee but believes the three-mile trip would suit him better than the 2m5f of the Neptune. Elliott confidently expects Death Duty to handle a sounder surface.

Juvenile hurdlers

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I’m not as utterly convinced as many that Charli Parcs would have beaten Master Blueyes had he not taken the tumble that ruled Geraghty out of this year’s Festival at the second last in last month’s Adonis Hurdle.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t have won but both horses were going well at the time, Charli Parcs having come back on the bridle after getting outpaced after the third last, and the winner did ultimately pull 11 lengths clear of runner-up Evening Hush. I reckon it would have been a close-run thing.

An enthused King spoke afterwards of “never knowing a horse come forward so much for a win”, referring to Master Blueyes having got off the mark over hurdles at Ludlow just over a fortnight earlier. The plan had then been to miss Cheltenham and wait to Aintree but the juvenile was in such good form that his trainer recalibrated for a tilt here.

Master Blueyes was still steadily improving for this yard on the Flat, with form up to 1m6f and on a fast-ish surface, when switching codes and although all his hurdling form is on flat tracks, he handled Goodwood perfectly well.

“I’m pleased to say he has come out of Kempton in great form as well,” King has since reported. No wonder he is “very excited about him in the Triumph”. The Adonis is an excellent stepping-stone to the Triumph, with five of the last 17 winners having achieved that double.

This was the final piece of evidence King needed to conclude his juvenile plans. Recent Sandown winner Coeur De Lion also still looks set to tackle the Triumph and King will be three-handed in the Fred Winter with Rainbow Dreamer, Adonis third Fidux and Dino Velvet. The last-named is rated just 125 and will surely make a cut that won’t be so high in 2017 as it has been in recent years.

Evening Hush has also been entered in the Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle and was simply brushed aside by Master Blueyes.

Henderson reported that Charli Parcs, who’s entered in the Supreme as well as the Triumph, is fine following his tumble but it was hardly a helpful prelude to any Festival target.

It’s unlikely to be the Supreme’s relative test of speed now, given he got outpaced here and it’s not inconceivable that if owner McManus should seek to run a juvenile in the Festival’s opening contest, it would be Triumph favourite Defi Du Seuil when he would be more likely to encounter the known known of softish ground than on the last day when the Triumph is staged.

However, as discussed in the previous section, McManus might well be happy to settle for fielding just the older novices in the Supreme.

Recent Doncaster winner Soldier in Action, who was rated more highly than Master Blueyes on the Flat, completes Henderson’s Triumph squad whereas the duo of Divin Bere (who beat King’s grey on his sole UK start) and Domperignon Du Lys represent him in the Fred Winter. The trainer was talking up his hand in the juvenile handicap at his open day.

At Fairyhouse last Saturday, the stewards rightly awarded the Grade Three juvenile contest to Dinaria Des Obeaux, who was squeezed out against the inside rail between the final two flights by first-past-the-post Ex Patriot only to rally strongly and fail by a rapidly diminishing nose. Landofhopeandglory was 11 lengths adrift in third, attempting to concede 7lbs to the winner.

Like Coeur De Lion, although she would be more advantaged at the weights in the Fred Winter, the greater stamina test provided by the Triumph could rightly sway trainer Elliott in that direction. She would be worthy of her place.

Less than two weeks earlier, having lost all chance with a blunder at the second last, she had finished more than ten lengths adrift of Mega Fortune in a Leopardstown Grade One in which the winner exacted his revenge on his previous course-and-distance conqueror Bapaume.

This pair (along with Landofhopeandglory) had met twice previously and finished in a different order each time. Here, first-time cheekpieces, a more positive ride and perhaps softer ground helped Mega Fortune to turn the tables. Elliott believes him to be “the pick of the Irish juveniles” and played down any notion of the horse being ground dependent.

Mullins believes Bapaume will “need to improve” to get involved but offered more arresting comments about Merie Devie, who was beaten 13 lengths into fourth behind Mega Fortune last time out.

“I think she’s a lot better than she showed,” Mullins said. “I probably gave her too much time off after her maiden hurdle win and maybe she needs to be trained more like a gelding. I will train her a good bit harder between now and Cheltenham and I’d be hopeful that would bring about improvement.

“I know Ruby had a lot of time for her and wanted to ride her [last time out] but I pretty much made him ride Bapaume as he had the form in the book. I’m sure he’ll have a good think about which one to ride at Cheltenham.”

Another potential late late shower for the same yard emerged at Gowran last month when Dandy Mag, a half-brother to Vroum Vroum Mag, won without fanfare by five-and-a-half lengths on his Irish debut. He’s also entered in the Neptune but has not featured in any dispatches I’ve read.

Talking of eleventh-hour appearances, Dreamcatching seems a likely type to enhance Nicholls’ record in the Fred Winter. The trainer has won this race three times since its institution in 2005 (admittedly rather luckily last year due to the final-flight departure of two key rivals) and is particularly adept at producing a scarcely sighted French-bred to land the spoils.

Cue Dreamcatching, who erased memories of an underwhelming UK debut when too free behind Charli Parcs at Kempton over Christmas with a tidy seven-length win at Wincanton last month. Nicholls has suggested the horse had taken a while to acclimatize but is now “really progressive” and is on “about the right mark”. He’s the new Fred Winter favourite but does have a rather grabby action and may be best suited by some cut.

Stablemate and six-time winner Cliffs Of Dover is out for the season after knocking a leg during schooling. He’ll be aimed at the Christmas Hurdle. It’s also been reported that Housesofparliament, well beaten behind Mega Fortune last time out, has been sidelined.

After flopping behind Don Bersy in the Victor Ludorum, Most Celebrated must be an unlikely Triumph candidate. As promised, winning trainer Tom Symonds is bypassing Cheltenham with the winner.

David Pipe mentioned a Festival dark horse in his At The Races stable tour in the much-entered filly Magie Du Ma. She’s yet to race in the UK due to suffering “a hold-up early in the season” but raced five times over hurdles in France, winning twice. She’s entered in both juvenile contests and the OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. Her trainer noted that she’s “been pleasing us at home”.

Road to Cheltenham Ante-post portfolio

Djakadam: advised 15/11/16 for the Gold Cup at 12/1 each way

Top Notch: advised 30/11/16 for the Arkle at 25/1 each way [likely NR]

Sceau Royal: advised 30/11/16 for the Champion Hurdle at 33/1 each way

Arpege D’Alene: advised 15/12/16 for the NH Chase at 25/1 each way

Yorkhill: advised 21/12/16 for the Arkle at 7/1 win only [likely NR]

Don Poli: advised 31/12/16 for the Grand National at 25/1 each way [NR due to toys exiting pram left]

Valseur Lido: advised 31/12/16 for the Ryanair at 12/1 each way [NR]

Sizing John: advised 19/01/16 for the Ryanair at 8/1 NRNB win only [likely NR]

Any Second Now: advised 19/01/16 for the Neptune at 16/1 each way [NR] 

Vroum Vroum Mag: advised 02/02/17 for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 7/1 NRNB each way

Kemboy: advised 02/02/17 for the Albert Bartlett at 33/1 each way

Yorkhill: advised as cover bet 09/02/17 3/1 NRNB for Champion Hurdle [unlikely to supplemented]

Limini: back now at 13/2 or 6/1 win only for the Champion Hurdle, NRNB imperative as needs to be supplemented