Lydia Hislop Road to Cheltenham 2017: Gold Cup archive

February 9 2017

Only collateral form to report here after Otago Trail paid a decent compliment to his Haydock conqueror Bristol De Mai when cosily winning a Sandown handicap last Saturday. His 22-length defeat only a fortnight earlier in the Peter Marsh Chase was exaggerated by a second-last blunder, but the winner was in a different class entirely.Meanwhile his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies suggested stablemate Blaklion, last year's RSA Chase victor, has the Randox Health Grand National as "his big target" and will use Haydock's Grand National Trial as his stepping-stone. He mentioned the Gold Cup could be an option in between. Twister has never knowingly missed "an option".Talking of trainers who believe actually racing horses is for life and not just for Christmas, Colin Tizzard plans to get three of his big Gold Cup four (sorry, Theatre Guide, I unaccountably overlooked you: five) back in action in the next ten days. 

 Native River runs in Saturday's Betfair Denman Chase, Peter Marsh flop Alary attempts an Exeter graduation chase the next day and Cue Card contests Saturday week's Ascot Chase. But Tizzard has warned that the Denman Chase trip "might be on the sharp side" for Native River and that Alary would "nearly have to win" at Exeter to book his Gold Cup place.

February 2 2017

Other than that of tragic hero, the role Many Clouds played last Saturday was perhaps to give us our first sighting of the boundaries of Thistlecrack's ability. Until then, we simply didn't know how good the King George winner might be. That's not to say he couldn't yet develop further - this was still only his fifth start over fences - but suddenly he looks a lot less invincible.Yet that is not to denigrate his performance in any way because the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase was a brutal examination of his Gold Cup credentials by a top-class rival and outstanding jumper of a fence, returned to the top of his game and in conditions in which he excelled.I can't have it that Thistlecrack didn't stay. Rail movements meant this race was staged over just 42 yards less than the advertised Gold Cup distance and on pretty much soft ground. The pair pulled 17 lengths clear of proven stayer Smad Place and the runner-up only went down to a Grand National winner running the race of his career by a head.Instead - and not unpredictably given its naivety here in November - it was Thistlecrack's jumping that undid him. He lacked efficiency at his fences in the early stages and as the pace wound up to championship tempo from halfway, he started to stutter - in particular at third last. Meanwhile, Many Clouds was soaring.It's to Thistlecrack's immense credit that he worked his way into a duel by the penultimate flight and into a narrow lead after the last but that was a big effort in itself and his opponent simply would not be denied.Bookmakers reacted by pushing him out from odds-on to 5/2 in the aftermath of the aftermath. When people could eventually bear to think about it, many felt that was too long. He is now best priced at 7/4.He will still line up in the Gold Cup with the most convincing profile and some of the best formlines in the field - perhaps the very best, depending on what you make of Cue Card's Betfair Chase victory (and the clock says you should make plenty).But more rivals will be inclined to give the Gold Cup a go now that they've seen how to rattle Thistlecrack. Admittedly, they still have to be good enough to do so but the presence of both Smad Place and Bristol De Mai in March should ensure that the pace is searching.It might be that Thistlecrack jumps better on a sounder surface. Or more likely in my opinion, it might be that a Gold Cup gallop on spring ground exerts greater pressure on his technique and inspires less recoverable errors.Henry de Bromhead has done wonders to win a race as competitive as the Thyestes with Champagne West, who joined him this term after his jumping imploded for Philip Hobbs. David Mullins was canny enough to lead from the outset and the rest of the field unwisely opted not to put the pressure on at his fences. Even so, he plunged through the fifth last for no good reason."David gave him a brilliant ride," said de Bromhead. "He's not easy because of his jumping but he just sat so quietly on him and we hoped that would be the key to him."In the aftermath, the trainer described Champagne West's Gold Cup entry as "a big step" but, on consulting owner Roger Brookhouse, has since confirmed this race as his Festival target. Yet that frailty would still worry me - whether he was running in the Gold Cup or the Ultima.

January 25 2017

Last Saturday's Peter Marsh Handicap Chase was rightly billed as the vehicle for a valid Gold Cup hope. Yet that was not, as it turned out, Colin Tizzard's Porsche Number Four - who pulled onto the hard shoulder after the fourth last after a shoddy round of jumping - but rather silky-jumping Bristol De Mai, who motored home in front.He got into a beautiful rhythm from the outset and whether or not horses were upsides, Jacob scarcely needed to move on this likeable grey throughout the entire three-mile test. This was a resounding career-best from a horse thumped on debut this season and uncharacteristically dull at his fences at Newcastle last time.His 22-length winning margin was exaggerated by runner-up Otago Trail burying his head in the turf at the second last and some key rivals - Vintage Clouds and Definitly Red - departing at the preceding fence when already beaten, but this dominant display was entirely underpinned by the testimony of the clock. Furthermore the winner was never placed under any pressure and coasted home from two out.It's possible that Haydock particularly suits Bristol De Mai because one of his better novice-chasing performances came on the same card last year when winning a Grade Two by 32 lengths. That said, his JLT second to Black Hercules at last year's Festival was a comparable achievement.Jacob reportedly compared him to quadruple Grade One chase winner The Listener, who needed testing ground to excel and was often dispatched to Ireland in search of it, but that might be unhelpfully pigeon-holing a six-year-old who's totally unexposed at three miles and further. Long Run won a Gold Cup at that age in 2011 and Djakadam was six when second in 2015.Asked whether Bristol De Mai would take up his Gold Cup or Ryanair entry at the Festival, Twiston-Davies said it depends "how Thistlecrack and everyone else goes". But surely he will Go Big - anything else would be against his nature and the is the Gold Cup right race. The official handicapper agrees: he now rates Bristol De Mai at 166, only 5ls behind Thistlecrack's chase mark.Depending on how literally you processed the hype, Alary was disappointing. He might well have an engine of the size Tizzard claimed beforehand but he'd never raced at British-style tempo over British-style fences. The writing was on the wall from lurching through the first fence. As mentioned previously, a mark of 162 looked more than enough and his erstwhile odds for the Gold Cup plain daft.Meanwhile in news from off the track, Elliott says Outlander heads straight for the Gold Cup whereas stablemates and fellow Gigginstown soldiers, Empire Of Dirt and a smock-less Don Poli, will go for the Irish Gold Cup next month.More immediately at Cheltenham this Saturday, at-best evens favourite Thistlecrack faces a substantial enough examination in the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase via the participation of regulars Many Clouds and Smad Place and at a track that exposed his naivety last time he encountered it.For those hankering after More Of That running in the Gold Cup, if his entry in the Stayers' Hurdle was dispiriting enough, his engagement in Saturday's cross-country event on the same card must be a hammer blow.

January 19 2017

Despite a widely anticipated small Gold Cup field for 2017, the total entry of 39 horses was the largest since 2013 (when 40 were engaged) and still more than any other year since 2008. The enhanced powers of the Colin Tizzard and Gordon Elliott yards dominate this year, with five entries apiece.Indeed there was fanciful talk of Tizzard saddling the first five home - a feat achieved by Michael Dickinson in 1983 and unlikely to be echoed here given Tizzard Number 5 is the 153-rated Theatre Guide. That is, of course, barring the world turning upside down. Know of any precedents for that in 2016?Happily owner Jean Bishop wants to run Tizzard Number Three Cue Card in this race rather than waving the white flag and backing out to the Ryanair. His trainer argues he "did not run up to his mark" in the King George at a track at which "even in his real pomp he didn't really perform to his best". But he did beat Vautour at Kempton in 2015, remember.Tizzard Number 4 Alary has a rating of 162 for his British debut in this Saturday's Peter Marsh Chase and, given all the hype, it's not surprising this twice Grade One-placed French recruit is favourite. But his mark looks more than enough and he faces a progressive sort at Haydock in Definitly Red.Given one of Elliott's quintet, titleholder Don Cossack, has already fallen by the wayside, the likelihood of progressive Empire Of Dirt lining up - as mooted after he won the Troytown - must increase. He's no forlorn place prospect, especially if you're necessarily playing small in a specials market and his participation could be decided by running in the Irish Gold Cup. Pricewise has tipped him for the Ryanair, mind.Another over-priced and seemingly likelier participant is Many Clouds, sixth to Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup four weeks prior to his career highlight Grand National triumph. Three weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree might well be enough for trainer Oliver Sherwood and owner Trevor Hemmings to take this course with a seemingly refreshed horse.Another Gold Cup entry to note is Zabana, whose Festival experience last year ended when the tapes went back for the JLT and whose trainer Andrew Lynch now seems to be backtracking on thoughts of the Ryanair. Reportedly, Lynch has had a good grumble about the wide trip steered by Davy Russell on this horse in the Lexus. Like it made the difference.The 39 also include Vroum Vroum Mag, who's entered in everything - a theme that continued this week with entries for the three major hurdle events and no doubt soon the Stoke-On-Trent by-election, too.Notable absentees include Shaneshill, Seeyouatmidnight, Un Temps Pour Tout, Carlingford Lough and Gilgamboa. The latter two no-shows mean JP McManus relies on pint-sized mare Kotkikova and Minella Rocco, not seen since taking that heavy tumble at Aintree last month. Only the latter is a realistic contender, surely.And finally Willie Mullins has been as unequivocal as he gets on the nagging calls to run Djakadam in the Ryanair. "He will run in the Gold Cup barring something extraordinary happening between now and then," he said in his Racing Post column."Does he not deserve another crack at the big one having been runner-up in it twice? I certainly think he does. I've been very happy with him since the Lexus and he has been pleasing me at home since. I'm not sure whether he will run between now and Cheltenham… He is our main [Gold Cup] hope."More specifically, he is Mullins' only Gold Cup hope.

January 11 2017

Sadly but not unpredictably, this year's Gold Cup is likely to contain neither of its most recent winners following news in the past week that titleholder Don Cossack has been retired and his predecessor Coneygree is all but certain not to be ready in time.Trainer Gordon Elliott took the decision to retire Don Cossack after he suffered a further setback in his rush to get fit in time for his postponed comeback assignment at Gowran Park next month."I am very sad to report that Don Cossack has suffered a setback and will now be retired," Elliott said in his Betfair blog. "We found that he had a bit of heat in his leg yesterday and we've made the decision to call time."Right from the outset since discovering an injury when preparing him for the Punchestown Festival last April, Elliott had warned this "horse of a lifetime" would immediately be retired were he to suffer another problem."We knew it was never certain we would get him back to the racecourse and even after that to get him back to his best, but we were hopeful and he was on track," Elliott added. Unfortunately, it was not to be.A few days earlier, the Bradstocks had all but bowed to the inevitable when announcing that Coneygree, who in 2015 became the first novice since Captain Christy to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1974, wouldn't even be entered in this year's edition. (But what's history, eh? We spit on history.)Having made his comeback at Haydock in November after missing most of last season due to injury, Coneygree failed to make his date with the King George - bitter pause - on Boxing Day due to a "niggly" setback. At the weekend there was talk of a race against time to get to the Gold Cup; the next day it seemed pretty much lost."If everything changed and suddenly everything looked perfect, his x-rays and him, we could supplement him but I'm not going to enter him because I'm 90 per cent certain he will not run," reasoned co-trained Sara Bradstock."It's all too quick. It's only two months from now and he's still only walking and we're not going to be there in top form."Bradstock's concluding statement was a reminder, were one needed, of just how delicate this horse is. "He'll definitely have some spring target and could go to Aintree or Punchestown unless something else goes wrong," she said. "We just need to do this right."Following news of Coneygree's likely absence, bookmakers reacted by cutting Native River to 13/2 at best - leaving Thistlecrack at Evens to 4/5 - partly because the absence of such a bold-jumping indomitable front-runner will make the second favourite's life slightly easier on the pace.Djakadam was still stubbornly available at 14/1 and Lexus winner Outlander at a generous 20/1 - although his jumping will need to hold and his stamina is unproven (if likely).After the Don Cossack news broke, Thistlecrack - for whom an ever-decreasing field is clearly an advantage - was cut to 10/11 and Native River to 6/1 but it's now screamingly ridiculous that Djakadam can still be backed at 14/1 with Sky Bet and Hills. Fortheloveofgod, if you haven't backed him each-way yet, I have no words.Meanwhile, given the market is happily ignoring current proven Grade One form, it's only logical that Alary - a horse who's won only two of his 13 chase starts and is yet to taste British-style jumping - should be as short as 16/1 - entries for which are announced this week. Thistlecrack was clearly a gateway drug; bookmakers have progressed to the hard stuff."Alary was very good this morning on the gallops," said trainer Colin Tizzard, who admittedly does have the first and second favourite in the Gold Cup betting and a certain Cue Card to measure him against. "I don't know when he will run but he's bloody good, I'll tell you that."Honestly: Kempton closing and Tizzard engaging in that my-other-car-is-a-Porsche yak. I have strayed into a parallel universe and want to come home.

January 4 2017

Gigginstown's Eddie O'Leary offered his post-Lexus thoughts to the Racing Post this week and they differ from mine. Shame he's in charge, eh?We agree titleholder Don Cossack faces "a long road back" and that Outlander "has improved a ton since joining Gordon Elliott" but that's where the similarity ends. However, there's still about ten weeks until Cheltenham; opinions and/or running plans can change in light of further evidence.Along with Outlander "if he continues to improve", O'Leary still deems Valseur Lido - "[if he] comes back to form" - one of their "best chances in the Gold Cup". That's despite the horse looking the likeliest winner entering the straight in the Lexus and yet finishing fourth."I'm not too downhearted about Valseur Lido," he said. "He looked like he didn't stay but we know he does stay, so he deserves another crack at it and he may run in the Irish Gold Cup in February."I'm less convinced an 11-length defeat of downgrading veteran Silviniaco Conti over three miles at Down Royal in November - or making a mistake for no good reason (tired?) and unseating Ruby Walsh at the final fence in last year's Irish Gold Cup or beating the inferior Wounded Warrior two Aprils ago over 3m1f - constitutes proof that 3m2.5f at the highest grade is that horse's optimum.It's the opposite argument to the one preferred by those who close their eyes and point to Djakadam's record at 2m4f.That said, it's unnerving Willie Mullins always maintained Valseur Lido wanted the Gold Cup trip when he trained him last season. Of course, back then Gigginstown insisted on running him in the Ryanair - which just goes to show how things can change… in more ways than one.What happens next partly depends on the outcome of next month's Irish Gold Cup, clearly, but also on how many of the Gigginstown massive are set to line up for both the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup and their own Ryanair Chase.There was further creative dissent between O'Leary and me when, despite admitting he doubted Don Poli "would be good enough to win a Gold Cup" and that "he's probably more of an Aintree Grand National horse", he declared "but he'll run in the Gold Cup as there's plenty of time between the two". Unaccountably, there was no mention of the painting class.That's a shame because Don Poli's chances at Aintree would be maximised if arriving fresh. Three weeks is not his idea of a mental hiatus from racing; three years and hiking up the Himalayas might just qualify. So we shall see: nought may endure but mutability.

January 1, 2017

Thistlecrack must have lost his L-plates somewhere between the third fence at Newbury in November and lining up at Kempton last Monday because he looked the finished article, on just his fourth chase start, when becoming the first novice ever to win the 32Red King George VI Chase.Manifestly the small field aided his cause - and that fact probably also placed his only credible rival Cue Card at a disadvantage - but the younger horse was also brilliant in dismissing with exuberant contempt four rivals vastly more experienced and decorated in this sphere.The signs were there from the outset when, despite the whole field bar Tea For Two vying for the lead at the first, Thistlecrack jumped it with a calm maturity not underwritten by his previous experiences. He then let rip at the second with a boldness that no longer exceeds his powers of execution. From that point onwards, he was in an unshakeable rhythm.Paddy Brennan sensed it even before the final circuit and moved Cue Card closer to his stable companion. At the 12th fence, he applied some pressure but found it immediately and unexpectedly took a toll on his own horse's jumping. The titleholder was beaten two fences later, the rest of the field at that point toiling even more markedly.There is no doubt Brennan was forced to play his cards sooner than ideal due to the readiness with which Thistlecrack was dominating the rest of the field - he had to try to shove something in the winner's spokes. Had there been a larger, deeper field - as there was two days later in the Lexus, say - he could have produced Cue Card after others had tried their luck.Asked what he thought of Brennan's tactics, winning jockey Tom Scudamore said: "I was quite happy that he was taking me on as soon as he did. I don't think he realised what a good horse Thistlecrack was and probably couldn't believe quite how quick we were going. He probably took me on sooner than ideal for him because he wasn't going well enough. I just knew that as long as I kept on jumping, the rest was going to follow."In fact Thistlecrack simply powered away with easy surefooted alacrity. His engine has always revved to a level noticeably higher than you might notionally prefer in a staying horse but it takes no toll on him in the closing stages. Even over the undulating three miles, two and a half furlongs of the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup, I suspect it won't cut out.Scudamore believes Thistlecrack is "an exceptional racehorse" and admires how, whatever happens, "he finds a way of winning". Trainer Colin Tizzard, who saddled the 1-2, observed: "None of us know how good Thistlecrack is, do we? Even now! Although we've got a pretty good idea… He's been that explosively brilliant for a while now and he just had to do it over fences round Kempton."Asked about that spectacular leap at the second, Tizzard summed it up precisely: "Tom's seen it and went for the stride; the horse has seen it and he's jumped it, didn't he? It wasn't sort of guessing at it like he did at Cheltenham. The job's been done now… His jumping is now as good as any horse's jumping, isn't it? He's just a very very beautiful boy."Tizzard admitted the decision to go for the King George, rather than the Kauto Star, did not come as easily to him as he believes it did to John and Heather Snook, Thistlecrack's owners, whose bold decision singlehandedly saved the 2016 edition of the King George from being a sparsely contested snooze-fest. They richly deserve their success, having patiently afforded Tizzard the space to nurture a horse that had only raced three times by the age of seven."It took me a lot longer to think whether [this race] was right or not because horses like this don't come along very often and you don't want to put them in a place where they're not comfortable," said Tizzard. "But at Newbury it became pretty obvious that he could take these on."And everyone else must think it as well because when we decided to declare him to run here, the Irish cancelled their ticket, didn't they? Everyone else is thinking it - it's not just me: this is a very good horse."Everybody is indeed thinking that - he is scarcely odds-against for the Gold Cup, having been first slated at 10/1 in March and then trimmed to 7/2 as a once-raced novice chaser by the time we started on this Road To Cheltenham in early November.It has proved a King Lear's Fool of a price, especially now yet another Gold Cup hero faces a race against time - of which more in a moment - but I still think he's been too short at every viable stage. I'm also stubborn.However, it's beholden on me to unpick the argument for this dizzyingly short-priced favourite, if I can. If one exists, it rests on whether Thistlecrack can be so dominant on a very different track over two furlongs further - albeit the Gold Cup field isn't shaping up to be that much larger than the King George. The argument is also related to what exactly he achieved at Kempton.Cue Card aside, he had little to beat. Former dual King George winner Silviniaco Conti is in the late autumn of his excellent career. Tea For Two is still yet to show form good enough for this level in open company. Josses Hill has looked a more complete chaser this season and did so again here until his stamina ran out. He must surely head for the Ryanair now and must run better than last term's eighth.So the fact these horses, for varying reasons, were hunting up Cue Card for second speaks of how far short of his own high standards he ran. What to make of this? Tizzard mentioned afterwards that Cue Card had been "brilliant" in his work in preparation for Kempton so the muted performance - if not the fact of his defeat - was not presaged by his wellbeing at home. His trainer has been an accurate barometer of this in the past.It could be that Cue Card's third Betfair Chase was a loud last hurrah from this enduring chaser now rising 11 years of age - while fully acknowledging that hurrah it undoubtedly was, given the time he clocked. It might be that these days he requires the testing going provided by Haydock - a track that also suits him particularly well - to give of his best rather than Kempton's pretty-much-good ground. It might be that unsuitable tactics and/or Thistlecrack's brilliance on the day somehow broke him. Whatever, he was up to a stone below his best.My instinct is therefore that the winner was very impressive in not beating much. That isn't to denigrate his achievement at all but merely to observe that the Gold Cup should be a much deeper, less straightforward race.Comparing the earlier performance of Might Bite - who would have won the novices' equivalent of the King George over the same course and distance bar for falling when drawing further clear at the last - is also interesting. Had he stood up, he would have won by about 18 lengths and probably clocked a time two or three seconds quicker than Thistlecrack's.It's not unusual for top novice events to register faster times than open-company equivalents. When asked about that phenomenon after the King George, Scudamore argued that there tends to be no respite in the pace of open-company events whereas in novice events horses can race more within themselves, resulting in a quicker time via the even distribution of energy.However, a sectional breakdown of the King George versus the Kauto Star reveals that at every point in each race, Thistlecrack and Mighty Bite were going at pretty much the same pace. So on this occasion the rhythms of the two events were no different. It means the novice should be rated in the 160s if Thistlecrack is indeed all that.The good news is, true to trainer form, we're going to get another opportunity to assess Thistlecrack before the Gold Cup. "It's three months away," said a baffled Tizzard when asked whether he'd do the modish thing and put his good horse away for the rest of the winter. "I think we'll race again."Cheltenham's Cotswold Chase next month - the meeting where Thistlecrack won last season's Cleeve en route to victory in the Race Briefly Known As The World Hurdle - is the target. Cue Card on the other hand could well go straight to the Gold Cup, where he's still got ye olde stamina question to answer, although Tizzard has since mentioned an alternative target - of which more later on.One of the reasons for that revision happened the following day when Native River won the Welsh National from a mark of 155. That puts him bang into the Gold Cup mix and he's now clear second favourite behind Thistlecrack at 8/1."I've ridden him four times and each time he's improved," commented rider Richard Johnson in his Betway column. "He's got such a great attitude - he always delivers... He has to be a big player [in the Gold Cup] as he stays and jumps. If you take Thistlecrack out, it's a very open race."Being picky, Native River wasn't quite as impressive at Chepstow as he had been in winning the Hennessy - whether that was due to the greater weight (albeit he was unpenalised for that Newbury win and 8lb well in here), the softer ground or the undulating track is hard to pin down. He didn't jump as well, with he and Johnson having a few creative dissents on the approach to fences as the latter repeatedly gunned him into them.While he no doubt merits his place at Cheltenham, I can't help but feel the Grand National is more Native River's style. It's not difficult to envisage him off the bridle and hard driven to remain prominent with a circuit to go against pacey top-class stayers in the Gold Cup. It's not even as if rain would be unalloyed good news - it might slow the others down but he prefers a sounder surface.While we're talking Aintree, surely Don Poli should head straight for the National? Clearly a spot of hunting has revived this existentialist racehorse - it made him feel alive again - because he ran a stonker to finish second in the Lexus last Wednesday.David Mullins rode him aggressively to mostly hold a prominent position in a steadily run affair and the indolent Don Poli responded half-heartedly to those tactics between fences but each time he spotted an obstacle ahead, he came alive. The actual technicalities of jumping seemed to be the only thing holding his attention so there was little incentive for him after clearing the last in dispute of the lead. His innate stamina also then kicked in, mind.I used to think Don Poli could go either way in the National: love it or spit the dummy after a maximum of three fences. Now I think he'll definitely love it. If he spends the next three months doing something completely different - a painting class, perhaps - and then heads to Aintree, he could really click with the place.Given I established this as a potential diversion last year, I'm taking a chance and recommending we back him at 25/1 each-way with Hills, Coral or Sky Bet. He's got the class, the jumping skills and the stamina. And he's fast becoming a cult hero of mine.Talking of which, I thought Djakadam ran perfectly well in the Lexus. Granted he can hardly claim Thistlecrack's brilliance but he ran far better than the literal form in a race conducted at an unsuitably slow pace.Ruby Walsh took the bold man's route down the inside at Leopardstown, of course, but it didn't prove the best tactic as things panned out because he got shuffled back not once but twice - and that's a fatal setback with a thorough stayer. (Yes, I said thorough stayer, you daft Ryanair advocates.)Both occasions involved the weakening Smashing, who didn't drop away as early as his inferiority merited because the pace was so slow. He was going less well than Djakadam approaching the second last and on the home turn and checked him back twice.On the heels of Djakadam, the smooth-travelling Valseur Lido had a similar problem the first time but was malleable enough to adjust around Smashing, avoiding the second bout of interference on the home turn and neatly shutting off Walsh's escape route in the process.As a result turning into the straight Djakadam was in a share of sixth and actually did well to force a photo for second with the better-positioned not-stopping Don Poli, having been more than two lengths down on him at that stage. All he did was stay on after getting out-speeded so why anyone says he needs to drop in trip is beyond me.Luckily it's beyond Willie Mullins, too: his only consideration was whether the horse would go straight to the Gold Cup or have one more run in between. That Festival test is what suits him best and I still anticipate a strong showing. If you didn't take the 12/1 each-way in November then take the 14/1 now because he's still the most over-priced horse in a market packed with potential absentees.The exception to that could of course be the Lexus winner himself, Outlander. He was a length and a quarter behind a more positively ridden Djakadam in the John Durkan and had been shaping all season as though a step up in trip was warranted. He also jumped better than is frequently the case.As the pace lifted at the second last, he immediately responded to encouragement to take closer order. He was nudged slightly by Valseur Lido on the home turn but was able to hold his ground to join that horse and Don Poli in a synchronised Gigginstown three-horse leap at the last. He then responded to pressure to draw steadily clear at the line.A steadily-run three miles at Leopardstown is a very different task to a likely well-run three miles, two and a half furlongs at Cheltenham but it could be that Outlander is even better suited by that. Moving up to staying distances might well have given him the extra time he needs to get his jumping right - he fell in last season's JLT and when having a Clonmel Grade Two at his mercy in November. However, it could also be that the manner in which the Lexus was run enabled him to utilise his superior turn of foot against two thorough stayers.Trainer Gordon Elliott commented: "It wasn't that much of a surprise that he won. He would have won at Clonmel but for falling at the last and there was little between him and Djakadam in the John Durkan at Punchestown when one jump probably made the difference between winning and losing…"The Irish Gold Cup back here in February would look an obvious race for him."Although the soundness of Outlander's jumping is another question mark hanging over his Gold Cup ambitions, Ladbrokes's 20/1 looks overly bold given four of the seven horses shorter than him in their market are not guaranteed runners.One of those horses is sadly 2015 Gold Cup hero Coneygree whom the Bradstocks last week admitted faces a race against time to make it to Cheltenham. He definitely won't be ready to run before the Festival, having missed the King George after failing to please in his homework."He's fine but it came out in the wash that he's jarred himself a little bit," said co-trainer Sara Bradstock. "It's not a serious injury but as we all know, while he is a miracle horse, he is also fragile…."We'll walk him now for a month until he's super-well and then we'll see where we are. He'll be fine by the time the Gold Cup comes around but the question is whether we'll have him ready."Finally in this section, if the Hennessy wasn't evidence enough, Blaklion's defeat in the Rowland Meyrick surely confirms last term's RSA winner is not Gold Cup class. The first two, progressive Definitly Red and runner-up Wakanda, did race more prominently but Jamie Bargary niggled Blaklion along even as they exited for the final circuit. It was lacklustre.

December 21, 2016

Although this division has seen no action in the past week, it certainly has not been short of developments. It began with news on Saturday that Coneygree will miss next week's 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton because he failed to convince training team Mark and Sara Bradstock of his wellbeing in a workout earlier that day."I ride him in all his work and know every step he takes," said Sara. "He'd been in flying form last week but wasn't himself on Saturday. He just wasn't 100 per cent and there's no point running in the King George if he isn't right. It's important not to take any risks."The 2015 Gold Cup winner, who triumphed in that event as a novice having also romped away with the 2014 Kauto Star over the King George course and distance, is now slated to run in Cheltenham's Cotswold Chase at the end of next month or in Newbury's Denman Chase in February.The Bradstocks are clearly focused on the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup as their absolute priority, as later underlined via Twitter with the accompanying assertion: "We truly believe he will be as good as ever." They have been accurate barometers for his remarkable career so far, so such a statement should not be lightly dismissed.His absence immediately made for a different sort of King George, given there will no longer be present such a high-class bold-jumping relentless galloper to drag his rivals through places they don't want to go. One instant reaction to the news came from Alan Spence, who decided to supplement Josses Hill at a cost of £10,000."We are running now," Spence told the Racing Post. "We were in two minds but Coneygree is a front-runner and Josses Hill seems to run better from the front. The way of running wasn't the deciding factor but it certainly helped."This will be Josses Hill's first attempt at three miles and quite a stage on which to experiment. "He's been impressive in his two runs this year and he always runs well at Kempton," Spence countered. "There are more pluses than minuses. Noel Fehily will ride him again."The increased distance could go some way to narrowing in the latter's favour the six-length gap that existed between Josses Hill and Tea For Two in the Peterborough Chase last month. That said, the former is in far better form. When on song, Tea For Two won the 2015 Kauto Star and made history with conditional Lizzie Kelly as first UK Grade One winner over jumps for a female rider but much, much more is required here.Back to the developing story and on Monday came the seismic news that owners John and Heather Snook had decided Thistlecrack would take on fellow Colin Tizzard-trained inmate and bonus-seeker Cue Card rather than sticking to the novice route. It transformed the race from a meagre parody of its original entry to one of the most eagerly-awaited clashes of recent times.That said it's rather premature - even misleading - to liken it to the era of Denman vs Kauto Star given that when those horses first met in the 2008 Gold Cup, the former had won the RSA Chase and his first Hennessy in incredible fashion and the latter two of his five King Georges and the previous year's Gold Cup.I am by no means seeking to undervalue the sportsmanship and vigour of the Snooks' decision - not to mention the mainline-to-the-heart that it's given the race as a sporting spectacle this Christmas. Their instincts are a hugely welcome contrast to the careful stage-management of stars within the Mullins yard, for example - albeit the fact of a shared owner has on occasion complicated matters there. However neither would I wish excitable comparisons to take for granted the greatness of what has gone before.The analogy also risks underestimating the scale of Thistlecrack's task: on his fourth chase start, having shown flashes of vulnerability in small-field novice events, he is taking on a stable-companion rated 176 over fences and veteran of 26 chase starts, 17 of which have been in Grade One company and eight of those were triumphs.That he was a brilliant World Hurdle winner speaks well of Thistlecrack's engine capacity but has less relevance to his chase credentials. Provided the titleholder is near his best in the King George - and the time and manner of his Betfair Chase victory suggest he is - Thistlecrack will need to be every bit as good as he was over hurdles and perhaps even a bit better to win.Coneygree managed to triumph on his first attempt at open Grade One company in the Gold Cup, admittedly, but jumping was already his major asset.The absence of that horse was reportedly not a contributing factor to the Snooks' bold call. On hearing of his defection, Heather Snook had stressed: "Nothing has changed. It's not about whom we are up against. He either takes his chance at one level or the other level…"At the end of the day it will be our decision, not Colin's. Although we totally respect him I don't think it's fair to expect him to make the decision because he has two horses to consider. The buck will stop with us."Jockey Tom Scudamore endorsed the decision, when it came. "I'm very positive about this and he's not a normal novice," he said. "For most novices this would probably be too much at this stage of their career but this is a special horse."Tizzard also gave his "full backing" to the Snooks' decision: "Both sets of owners have sat down and talked about it. Both horses are in cracking form, so should take their chance."He has long acknowledged the inclusion of Thistlecrack risks a stable-companion being the one to deny Cue Card a second shot at Jockey Club Racecourses' £1 million bonus for winning the Betfair Chase, King George and Gold Cup - a feat that ended in a costly fall three out for Cue Card and Paddy Brennan in March. Cue Card has already again won the first leg.But neither the Snooks nor Cue Card's owner Jean Bishop are troubled by this - you know, like grown-ups shouldn't be. As John Snook said: "This is championship racing."Bishop added: "If the horses are there and the owners want to run them - as Mrs Snook said - they have the last word… There's no point in worrying because they are two horses who are going to do their best."Mullins has decided to have none of it, either with Vroum Vroum Mag or the more fanciful Douvan concept. Such notable absentees and a maximum field of seven could allow Thistlecrack to get into a critical rhythm early on - a luxury that might not otherwise have been possible.Candidates for the pace other than Josses Hill include Road To Riches - of whom more in a moment - and Silviniaco Conti, the previous dual winner pulled up in the race last year. Seemingly a light of former days, he is by no means a certain runner at this stage.Following the primary news about Thistlecrack's participation, there were some smaller aftershocks. Ar Mad, whom Gary Moore had wavered about supplementing when Coneygree defected, was decisively kept to plan A of Ascot's Clarence House over 2m1f next month.Furthermore Gordon Elliott, who briefly toyed with sending over Outlander from Ireland, has now reverted to his original thinking. The John Durkan runner-up could instead have two stable companions alongside him in the Lexus, Ireland's big staying chase of the Christmas period staged two days later at Leopardstown.Troytown winner Empire Of Dirt and the mercurial Don Poli, who had a face like thunder last time he ran, are also possible Lexus contenders."Don Poli is going well at home and is in better form than when he was pulled up at Down Royal last month when the cheekpieces might not have suited him. He won the Lexus last year [when trained by Willie Mullins] and we're looking at running him in it again," Elliott said.Alternatively, Elliott is toying with outfoxing Grand National weights-complier Phil Smith by running Empire Of Dirt over hurdles instead. Fiendish. He should try spinning him round blindfolded three times for good measure, too.O'Leary also had a more definitive take on Don Poli. "He has been out hunting and maybe heavy ground around Leopardstown would bring out the best in him," he said. "If he can't lie up on heavy ground in the Lexus we may start having to think he's a thing of the past."In Tuesday's Racing Post there was a further update on Christmas running plans from Gigginstown House Stud racing manager Eddie O'Leary. He indicated the Noel Meade-trained Road To Riches could make the journey to Kempton for the King George but that Valseur Lido, trained by Henry de Bromhead since the Great Divorce with Mullins and most recently winner of Down Royal's Champion Chase in career-best style, is their chief Lexus hope.Presuming he runs, Road To Riches is the over-priced horse in the King George. It was only April when he still held the lead two out in Punchestown's Grade One Champion Chase after a bold round of jumping until hitting the deck.Previously, he had played duck (sitting variety) to Vautour in the Ryanair when that role probably cost him rightful second to the later-played Valseur Lido. He was only three-and-a-half lengths behind Coneygree when third in the 2015 Gold Cup.This year's King George could be right up his street, especially if he's allowed to chase Silviniaco Conti solo and in effect set the meaningful fractions while Cue Card and Thistlecrack look at each other. Just a thought…Whereas Wounded Warrior was mentioned in terms of the Welsh National - for which he would be interesting - neither O'Leary nor Elliott mentioned Roi Des Francs but his name appeared among the seven still standing in the King George. He has failed to make much impact at Grade One level to date.Finally for this division, Elliott also issued an update on his reigning Gold Cup hero, who suffered a tendon injury while being prepared for Punchestown in April."Don Cossack has been coming along nicely over the past few months. In addition to cantering, he swims twice a day and it's so far so good with him," he said. "It's still a case of taking one day at a time but it things continue to go well the plan will be to give him one run before the Gold Cup and it's quite possible he could start back in the Red Mills Chase."This news contained a key revision. The target Elliott had hitherto cited was the Kinloch Brae Chase, staged at Thurles in mid-January (and reduced to Grade Three in 2017), whereas the Red Mills is staged in mid-February at Gowran Park (and remains a Grade Two).That tacitly suggested the horse is in fact behind Elliott's preferred schedule, something he in effect admitted to At The Races the following day when acknowledging: "I think the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles he won last year will probably come too soon."Don Cossack will also be entered for February's Grade One Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown but Elliott is leaning towards keeping it "low-key for his first run and maybe over a trip short of his best", hence the Red Mills plan. "We just want to have a nice day out, coming back in one piece, and then go for the Gold Cup if we can."I can only interpret this as a slight negative for Don Cossack's chances of turning up at Cheltenham on Friday March 17. Clearly, it remains possible that he might make it but it's going to be even more of a rushed job and who knows how much ability he retains - especially for an attritional 3m2f.

December 15, 2016

For a horse that's twice finished second in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, Djakadam has the propensity to land steeply and crumple into the ground on occasion. He's done it twice at Cheltenham - when still travelling strongly four out in the 2014 JLT and in the BetBright Chase last January.He is by no means a bad jumper but this undercurrent adds a frisson of jeopardy to following the horse, as I do. It was therefore welcome news that Walsh chose to maintain this finely-honed partnership rather than pursue Douvan's Cork cakewalk. It was potentially even more encouraging that Mullins said he saw signs of even that intermittent flaw being ironed out.Referring to the mistake Djakadam made at the seventh in the John Durkan Memorial Chase, Mullins observed: "That was a good effort first time out. He was able to find a leg when he made his only bad mistake at the downhill fence but other than that he jumped very well… He survived that - something he has not done before - so it shows he is maturing."Aside from this - admittedly important if it's proof of a summer and not one swallow - we learned nothing new about Djakadam. He is still a high-class staying chaser who's superior enough to win a Grade One against decent enough race-fit rivals at a trip well short of his best.The literal form of his second successive win in this major 2m4f Punchestown event does not compare with his best form - that's come at Cheltenham, in two Gold Cups, for those who are perplexingly still not sure whether the course "suits" him. But it was still an entirely satisfactory start to his campaign.As outlined in the first Road of the current series, the Gold Cup case for Djakadam rests on increased maturity, a trouble-free preparation - in contrast to last year - and perhaps (but not definitely) getting softer ground.Having already dealt with the first of those thoughts, Mullins moved on to the second: "Last year he was held up after getting cut at Cheltenham [when falling in January]. It was right between his front legs and was stapled. It came right but was hardly ideal ahead of a Gold Cup."Thankfully both Mullins and Walsh afterwards attested to the horse's stamina and pitched a staying campaign pivoting around the Gold Cup, suggesting the daft Ryanair theory isn't getting any traction where it counts - although I don't doubt he'll get an entry in the race.In second Outlander jumped better than can often be the case - he probably would have won the Clonmel Oil Chase on his previous start bar for tipping up and he also fell in the 2015 JLT (at the same fence as Djakadam two years earlier). Although he's effective at 2m4f, he shapes as though some improvement can be reaped from a step up in trip.Third-placed Sub Lieutenant has improved at around this distance this season and jumped well here, apart from the last. He's never run at Cheltenham to date and has fallen short in Grade One company but seems to be thriving for joining Henry de Bromhead.The winner's stablemates filled the last two places: Alechi Inois was in too deep and Black Hercules, who hasn't raced since winning the JLT in March, jumped far too scrappily to get involved. The latter was unnervingly listless.At Cork that same day, it was a shame Gilgamboa had his legs taken from underneath him by the fall of Mozoltov at the third last in the Hilly Way. The trip was far too short for JP McManus's representative, who may be sentenced to contest unsuitable races until the Grand National weights come out. Were he to turn up in the Gold Cup, I suspect he'd run well.In the same Cork race, Fine Rightly was a well-beaten third for his amateur rider in suitably heavy conditions; he ran creditably for a horse that wants much further and perhaps to race left-handed.

December 7, 2016

My life is enriched by the existence of Many Clouds - and I'm sure many jumping fans feel the same way. Certainly, owner Trevor Hemmings, trainer Oliver Sherwood and jockey Leighton Aspell know they're involved with one of those horses who've got hold of the public's heartstrings.Even before he won the Hennessy and Grand National in the same season, he had a good section of the crowd rooting for him. He's always had charisma and was sensitively nurtured by Sherwood to realize his full potential. Throw in a jockey who's ridden him all 26 times he's set foot on a racecourse and you've got a tight-knit dream team.After a trio of top-notch efforts at Aintree, Cheltenham and Kelso last season ended on something of a low, however, when Many Clouds could finish only last of the 16 completers in the 2016 National. He was trying to defend his crown and make history as the first horse to win the Aintree marathon twice since the unparalleled Red Rum.Sherwood subsequently discovered the soft ground had exposed a breathing infirmity and "tinkered with his wind" over the summer break. As a result last Saturday Many Clouds came roaring back, jumping with that rare combination of soaring athleticism and clever experience that marks him out as one of the best bare jumpers of a fence in training. It was simply a joy to watch and elicited a seemingly out-of-context yell from me in the Sandown paddock as I listened to the commentary in my ear. (Perfectly normal; nothing to see here.)However that yell rather dried in my throat when Minella Rocco took a heavy fall at the last. To everyone's relief, he got to his feet after plunging through that fence and hopefully won't suffer any ill effects.This time last year as a novice, his jumping required careful management but with victories in the NH Chase at the Festival and an eye-catching third at that track last month, those issues appeared resolved.Back at Aintree under a characteristically patient ride he was a tad low at times and hit the 15th but there was surely nothing to prepare Barry Geraghty for his mount barely taking off at the last, having responded so doughtily to pressure to almost get back on terms with the winner.As it happens, I suspect Many Clouds would have won anyway because it had been such hard work. That creates doubts about Minella Rocco's pace for a Coneygree-powered Gold Cup, even if his jumping seems better at Cheltenham and a sounder surface suits best.Le Mercurey ran very well indeed, managing to raise his game to break from the field with Many Clouds but without ever looking likely to land a blow upon him. He proved his stamina for three miles.Irish Cavalier would have hated the ground which prompted some blunders. Out-of-his-depth Cocktails At Dawn often doesn't need prompting to blunder.Last word belongs to Sherwood who believes Many Clouds will improve on this performance but stressed, even if that propels him back into Gold Cup territory, the 2017 Crabbie's Grand National remains his target.

November 30, 2016

At Newbury last Saturday, Native River simply would not be outdone by his more celebrated stablemates, Cue Card and Thistlecrack. Looking splendid in the paddock, he delivered on his promising seasonal debut over hurdles with a round of beautiful jumping to win the 60th running of the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase.(Let's hope that wasn't the last time these loyal sponsors put their name to that race, by the way. It would be devastating for this iconic event to get lost in the world of transient associations, blusteringly intent on obliterating history with their own self-important short-termism rather than recognizing the value of the coin they're buying into.)The winner did it the hard way - the actual hard way, always prominent in the leading pack and seeing off rival after rival's waves of attack, including the final onslaught from the National-bound Carole's Destrier on the run to the line. This was a career-best effort to top Native River's Aintree Grade One novice success last April.It's not surprising that those top performances have come in the hands of Richard Johnson, whose innate positivity suits this horse's style of running. On Saturday, he rewarded his jockey with a first-ever Hennessy.The Aintree marathon might suit Native River ideally. Although he ran very well in the four-miler at last year's Festival in first-time cheekpieces, he has travelled with more verve at flat tracks. There's no reason why he shouldn't have a go at the Gold Cup before Aintree, however - and he's in just the yard to roll the big dice.The Hennessy result further boosted the reputation of last term's Festival four-miler compared with the RSA. From the former event, Minella Rocco has since shaped well on his return, Vicente had already won the Scottish National and now, having already won a Grade One, Native River has seized another headline open handicap.Although RSA winner Blaklion shaped well in the Charlie Hall, he was beaten before even entering the straight at Newbury and could only plug on to finish almost eight lengths adrift in fifth. His Gold Cup ambitions are in danger of flat-lining.Earlier in the day, Native River's more famous neighbour gave a performance rather more in keeping with his still-daft position as 7/2 favourite for the Gold Cup. Indeed, Thistlecrack was really good on the final circuit of Newbury's two-mile Grade Two but he'd already secured a lead by that point and his massive engine ensured no rival was able to eyeball him.Nick Schofield half-hoped to give it a go on chase debutant Ibis Du Rheu but he was also conscious that getting caught too long in a tussle with so superior a horse is the fast track to heavy defeat or worse. As it turned out, his mount wasn't good enough to put Thistlecrack under pressure yet the effort of trying still cost him second. It was quite an encouraging debut in Ibis Du Rheu's own littler world, nonetheless.Bigbadjohn made too many mistakes to get involved and merely picked up the pieces for second. Any thoughts that he might lead or race upsides during the nervy early stages of the race were erased by winning jockey Tom Scudamore sensibly taking control from the outset.It was only over the first few fences at Newbury that Thistlecrack hinted at the jumping vulnerability he'd displayed more obviously at Cheltenham last time. He adjusted right at the first two and didn't quite convince with his technique at the ditch - albeit he jumped it just fine next time round, when it functioned as the third last. Once again, you'd love to have found out how this brilliant horse would fare at his obstacles if the likes of a Coneygree were letting fly next to him.We may still get to find out sooner rather than later because neither Tizzard nor owners John and Heather Snook have yet shelved their King George ambitions."I woke up this morning thinking Feltham and then I watched the race again and thought, actually, what's wrong with going out into open company?" Heather told the Racing Post last Sunday. "I hope we keep our feet on the ground. Colin is grounded enough to speak for us all."True to form, Tizzard outlined his thinking. "We'll take stock for a week or two," he said. "I'm sure Thistlecrack will be declared at the six-day stage for both the King George and Feltham. The owners are the most important people so they most probably make the decision."I have to be fair to both sets of owners. In an ideal world, you would have one in each but if Cue Card finished third or fourth in the King George, we might think we could have won it if we'd run Thistlecrack. It's not an easy decision."Over at Navan the following day, Empire Of Dirt won the Troytown in comfortable fashion from an Irish mark of 148. This was the race in which he had fallen whilst still holding every chance at the third last in 2015, back in the bad old days when he'd also hit the deck in three of his previous six starts. But you'd never have guessed that last Sunday nor when he screamed in at the Festival in March.Back then, he was even badly hampered by a faller at the third but still picked off the entire field in a steady surge from last place to win the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate by four lengths off a British mark of 142. He was a different gear that day. If anything, he appears to have improved again since and is now proven at three miles, having been tried without completion over that trip and further in the past.This was the key leg in an astounding 41,276/1 six-timer on the day for Gordon Elliott, who acquired this horse only after the retirement of Colm Murphy last month. His new trainer, who fielded 11 horses in the feature Troytown - yes, that's half the field - pinpointed the Grand National as Empire Of Dirt's target, adding: "He mightn't have many runs before then."His campaign may also incorporate that handicapper-befuddling ploy of running over hurdles as part of his preparation. However, I wouldn't be amazed if he ran in the Gold Cup as his final prep prior to Liverpool, so progressive is his profile, nor if he even managed to bag a place.

November 23, 2016

Cue Card's third Betfair Chase victory was every bit as good as it looked last Saturday. It needed the clock to confirm it, however, because the urgings of the eye and heart might have been deceptive.The fact the winning time was in a different parish - three or four parishes away, in fact - from the final handicap over the same course and distance was the ultimate signal for unfettered celebration. This form is as brilliant as Cue Card has ever been.He moved fluidly, kept to the inside by jockey Paddy Brennan, and jumped with all his best catlike agility in the testing ground. In the back straight, the race quickly became the hoped-for match with the returning 2015 Gold Cup hero Coneygree but, as far out as the turn for home, it was clear that only the fences stood between the Colin Tizzard-trained chaser and success.Happily, they proved no problem either and the margin at the line was an emphatic 15 lengths. That means the Jockey Club's £1million dream is alive once again if Cue Card can win this term's King George and Gold Cup, having come unthinkably close when falling, going well, three out at in the third leg at Cheltenham last year.That groan-enducing reverse meant racing fans have only taken Cue Card, Brennan and Tizzard closer to their hearts and it was fitting that the jockey was careful to parade his horse of a lifetime in front of Haydock's tumultuously happy grandstand. Three cheers rang out in the parade ring and Tizzard even got an adulatory chant.It was all incongruously perfect - just how Cue Card rolls."I hacked him to the start and I knew instantly things were going to be so much different today," Brennan said in the immediate aftermath. "He keeps surprising me, how good he is. When he's at the right conditions and he's got a little bit of ease underfoot, it's dangerous what he can do."You sense Brennan is approaching this season with more grounded gratitude than the giddy nerves of last, having assimilated the most expensive fall of his career with impressive equanimity. In that personal journey, he could not have had better ballast than Tizzard.The trainer had even shouldered unnecessary blame for Cue Card's Charlie Hall defeat last month, saying he'd asked Brennan to be too aggressive, but his jockey insisted the problem had not been one of tactics but "a combination of things", including fitness."He was the Cue Card I know [here] and at Wetherby I never had that. When he's on that form today, you can ride him whatever way you want. He's different class."For Tizzard, this performance dispelled those disquieting voices about Cue Card's advancing years that had crept into his mind after Wetherby. "You never know with a horse, do you?" he asked, rhetorically, of an assembled crowd with a fraction of his knowledge. "You get a nagging in your mind: he's coming eleven, he might be starting to wane a bit but definitely not."Three years ago, we'd have worried about this ground but the few times we've run him on it, he sorts of floats on top. He's got such a low, lovely, beautiful, easy action, he doesn't go in. He didn't have a hard race at all, did he?"It was indeed all of that - perhaps bar the final comment. No Grade One in the mud is easy, even if it appears so.In the backwash, the unknown quantity Vezelay seems to have improved a handful of pounds on what he's ever managed previously in being beaten by 28 lengths. Given his connections were prepared to travel over from France, that sits within the realms of feasibility.However, former dual Betfair Chase winner Silviniaco Conti now seems a shadow of his former self, recent Charlie Hall winner Irish Cavalier would have hated the ground and Brian Hughes looked unhappy with the blowing-out Seeyouatmidnight from a very early stage. Hence the reassurance of the clock was needed to peg the form.When putting up Djakadam in last week's column, I had feared one or both of the Betfair Chase principals might blow out but in fact Cue Card reasserted his position as the best staying chaser in active training - if not just the best chaser in active training.And what of Coneygree, ridden by Richard Johnson, the preferred substitute for injured Nico de Boinville? Co-trainer Sara Bradstock had hoped to see Cue Card "out on his feet" by the last fence, having submitted to the younger horse's characteristically relentless gallop. Instead, it was Coneygree who was forced to retreat.Bradstock had a characteristically bullish response to defeat, asserting: "We'll be back. He won't beat us again." But I wouldn't be so sure - at least in certain circumstances. You couldn't possibly be negative about this first run for more than 12 months, following a variety of setbacks. However, neither would I be taking the best-priced 9/1.Even the Bradstocks had clearly been expecting more, even if in hope rather than confidence. Sara later gave a more qualified update, saying: "If we feel he is sharper and that we can win a King George, we might stay in England next. If it would be nice to have a confidence boost, we might go to Leopardstown [for the Lexus]."That suggests she worries Cue Card would beat them again at Kempton - and I tend to agree. Cheltenham next March, if he stays sound, could be a different matter given the Gold Cup is a known known for Coneygree but still yet an unconquered track-trip combination for his conqueror.Of course, one knock-on effect of Cue Card's reassertion is that it might push daft ante-post favourite Thistlecrack down the novice route, albeit we'll learn more at Newbury this week.Incidentally, trainer Willie Mullins has confirmed that Djakadam is on course to reappear in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on Sunday week.Of his former stablemate Valseur Lido, beaten 12 lengths in that race last year, Henry de Bromhead will choose between the Lexus and King George as his Down Royal winner's next outing nearer the time.I'm including Outlander in this section because he's got Hennessy and King George entries and, as mentioned in last week's column, he certainly shaped like a stayer at Down Royal at the start of this month when second to Sub Lieutenant.He probably would have won the Grade Two Clonmel Oil Chase over 2m4f last Thursday, given he was three lengths in front when lunging at the last and falling. But I suspect it would have been closer between him and the ultimate winner, Alelchi Inois, than the perceived wisdom dictates given Walsh had delayed his winning challenge to allow the three-way duel ahead of him entering the straight to take its toll on participants.Outlander had been either careful or guessy at his obstacles throughout the race, so it was unfortunately no surprise that he was again too low when asked by Bryan Cooper to settle things. This horse also fell at the fourth last in last year's JLT, so this shortcoming may continue to hold him back.The winner wasn't entirely blemish-free in what proved an error-strewn race but Walsh believes he needs to step up in trip. He took third in an Italian Grade One chase on his previous start and Mullins suggested a return trip might be in order or perhaps a National campaign. A switch to cross-country fences might be delayed. Soft ground is a negative for him.Becher entry Clarcam ran respectably in third but Monksland again jumped poorly and perhaps a reversion to hurdles is at hand, perhaps even as soon as Newbury this week. Fourth-placed Dromnea jumped best, albeit out to his left, and ran the creditable race the betting market prophesied, aided by an easy lead. He seems to have improved a touch this term. This race did not impress as strong form, however.

November 16, 2016

Clearly, Thistlecrack has the raw talent to go to the very top over fences and is already the proud owner of a bold leap, but his second chase start was unconvincing in any context - let alone for a horse residing as 7/2 favourite for next year's Gold Cup.He amazed himself by standing off too far from the first open ditch, pretty much landing on top of it, and then carefully gave the next even more air. Unlike many a discipline-switching hurdler, he doesn't lack for courage but was too easily induced (by a vastly inferior rival) to take off too soon.He jumped best when allowed to dominate and measure his fences in his own time, but even then he often lacked the instinctive efficiency for which he was rightly famed over hurdles. Classy though he is, he also won't be able to boss horses of the calibre he'll meet on the Gold Cup trail to the extent his jumping currently requires.He might well learn to be more fluent with experience but the clock on this particular March assignment is ticking. No wonder trainer Colin Tizzard seems to be cooling on the King George in less than six weeks' time.The upside for Thistlecrack fans - of which I am one, to be clear; it's his odds I'm deriding - is that he's in the right yard to get plenty of practice. Tizzard, like Nigel Twiston-Davies, likes to run 'em - and praise be for that - so we should be seeing him next at Newbury in two weeks' time. I suspect there will be more takers of that challenge than there were last Saturday, so we should learn plenty. Let's hope he does, too.Yet if a horse is unfeasibly short in a market, there is usually some value to be had. It strikes me that the front of the current Gold Cup betting is more wish list than market, especially since the brilliant Vautour sadly lost his life in a freak accident earlier this month.Don Cossack and Coneygree fill the next two places on most lists - apart from those bookmakers most fearful of the old Willie Mullins switcheroo, of which more later, and have taken the precaution of pricing up Douvan at 7s or 8s. These include BetBright - the firm chaired by that horse's owner, Rich Ricci - which, depending on where you feature on the Donald Trump scale, (I don't know, but a lotta people are saying) is either interesting or irrelevant. For what it's worth, Ricci told Matt Chapman on At The Races that Douvan's primary target is the Champion Chase. (What could possibly go wrong?)The past two Gold Cup winners have each been sidelined with injuries. We can't be certain Don Cossack will race again, let alone that he'll retain all his ability if he does - albeit the tendon injury he sustained while preparing for Punchestown in spring seems to be repairing to schedule.In his most recent dispatch last month, Gordon Elliott was hopeful his stable star might return in January's Kinloch Brae Chase as a stepping-stone to the Gold Cup. There is no possibility of an earlier return and his trainer candidly acknowledged that "if there are any hiccups, we'll retire him".At least Coneygree is set to reappear this Saturday, after just over a year on the sidelines. He must begin without usual rider Nico de Boinville, who fractured his arm in a fall at Cheltenham last weekend, but husband-and-wife training team, Mark and Sara Bradstock, are hoping for the semi-familiar hands of Richard Johnson, who won the Denman Chase on the horse.That depends on retaining trainer Philip Hobbs releasing him from conflicting obligations with Menorah and at Ascot, but Johnson did school Coneygree twice over six fences at Nicky Henderson's yard on Tuesday morning. The noises were positive.But you'll recall last autumn when first there was a foot problem, then a hock problem. This is also a horse described by the Bradstocks as having "fragile back legs" - like those of a grasshopper in more ways than one. Prior to his Gold Cup-winning season, he only made it to the track once in nearly two years. He is a super horse, but no ante-post proposition.The scale of his bounce-backability should also be thoroughly tested in Haydock's Betfair Chase this Saturday, given chief opponent Cue Card has already raced this season and is chasing the £1 million bonus trail that bit the dirt, along with him and Paddy Brennan, three out in last year's Gold Cup.He got mixed reviews for his Charlie Hall reappearance at Wetherby last month, when beaten by both Irish Cavalier and Menorah, both of whom potentially re-oppose on Saturday.Speaking on Racing UK's NH Preview show on Monday, Ruby Walsh asserted: "There were little bits of Wetherby that reminded me of the Cue Card of a couple of years ago when I thought he was home and hosed in the King George and Silviniaco Conti nabbed him on the line."I thought his head got quite high and he jumped the second last with a lot of air that day in the King George. He did the same at Wetherby [whereas, if] you see him at Aintree last year, his head is much lower and his nose is out in front of him."To my less exacting eye, Cue Card looked his usual gawky, surefooted, brilliant self for much of Wetherby and, given the penalty he carried, you could argue he ran as well in finishing third last month as he did winning the race last year. He probably pressed on too far out and I thought his head only came up after a tired mistake at the last.Walsh conceded what he saw might have been "fatigue" but I wasn't sure whether he meant in the race per se or in a stellar career now stretching into its eighth season, through its evolutions, at pretty much the highest level.Coldly, the likelihood is that at his age Cue Card will fall short of last season's dazzle. We won't have to wait long to test-drive that idea: given he's had a prep-run, loves Haydock and his yard is in outstanding form, Cue Card must impress this Saturday.In terms of the Gold Cup betting, the Betfair Chase result is likely to mean one or both of its leading players could drift markedly. (If that still happens these days - as it would do in, you know, a functioning market.) Another reason to focus the mind on the current betting.You'll have noticed I don't consider either Menorah or Irish Cavalier credible Gold Cup contenders. The former needs no justification, surely - even in a post-Brexit, post-Trump landscape of the unthinkable? The latter was a never-involved fifth in last year's event, but is young and his Charlie Hall success was a career-best. However, it's a level of form that still falls well short of requirements. He needs more.Back in fourth, Blaklion ran well for a long way and this was a satisfactory reappearance from last year's hardy RSA Chase winner. The horse he beat at Cheltenham, Shaneshill, is another potential player in this category (among others) but returned over hurdles in a race addressed later.Earlier this month in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal, Valseur Lido was the only horse to turn up in mind, body and soul. He romped away by 11 lengths from a below-form Silviniaco Conti, who'd had the advantage of a clear lead for much of the way.As part of the Gigginstown divorce settlement from Willie Mullins, Valseur Lido was running for Henry de Bromhead for the first time but his former trainer had long regarded him as a stayer rather than a speed horse. He is unexposed at three miles and beyond - mainly due to the fact he had rarely completed at that trip to date.Walsh rode him at Down Royal and seemed less than blown away by the experience, albeit the change of yard and lack of exposure over the Gold Cup trip might temper his point. "When we had him in Willie's, we always thought Djakadam slightly better than Valseur Lido," he said. Both horses are 12/1.Meanwhile, last year's Gold Cup third Don Poli clearly has the Memphis blues again. In the backwash at Down Royal, he reacted to galvanising first-time cheekpieces with a feat of towering truculence one can only admire - unless you had any involvement with the horse, directly or financially.Grand Nationals of one sort or another had always looked likely to provide the marathon test Don Poli needs, but whether that's what he wants these days is another matter. Now people just get uglier and he has no sense of time.This argument is leading to a sheepishly defiant pay-off: namely, let's back Djakadam AGAIN. Yes, I know I'm obsessed with this horse. Yes, I know that a Road To Cheltenham is yet to pass without me recommending him for a Festival race and this would be third time lucky for the Gold Cup. (That said, he's wiped his face for this column overall.)But at 12/1, given everything discussed above and with none of last year's staying novices looking that scary at this stage, he's the wrong price.It was also quite encouraging to hear Walsh observe on that same RUK show: "I wouldn't be certain Djakadam ran as good a race in [the 2016] Gold Cup as he did the year before."I don't know why - he jumped super but he definitely didn't pick up as he did the year before, although he never stopped and galloped all the way to the line."That chimed with me, Djakadam's number-one stalker; I had the same sensation watching last season's race live. Number-crunchers will argue the Don Cossack second is the better performance on figures, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was all he might have been capable of.There are two ways to underpin my theory, to my mind: the training setback caused by the cut he'd sustained in his BetBright Chase fall in January, which Walsh cited as a possible factor, or the fact the ground was softer when he was a rallying second to Coneygree in 2015.In the interests of full disclosure, I should mention that Walsh preceded his comments with this assessment of the 2016 Gold Cup: "Don Cossack beat me sort of five lengths. I think he didn't do a whole pile in front - I'm not even sure if Bryan Cooper used his whip on him."I think Djakadam would have got beaten a good bit further had Cue Card stood up. I don't know what would have won, but I think Don Cossack and Cue Card would have gone further away from me."Not the most ringing endorsement for my selection, you may say, but we're talking about two rivals older than Djakadam, (mostly) shorter in the market and for one reason or another far from guaranteed to be in the same form this term. Meanwhile, my selection is sound, of proven Gold Cup class and will be only eight years of age next March.You can shake your head at what you might perceive to be blind loyalty - it's more rooted in reality than the view that he should drop in trip for the Ryanair…I should finally mention that at Down Royal earlier this month, Sub Lieutenant beat Outlander in a manner to suggest the latter would benefit from a step up in trip. He's entered in the Betfair Chase, Hennessy and King George, as well as over 2m4f at Clonmel this week, and could be an improver in this division. He fell at the fourth last in the JLT last term.Behind them both at Down Royal was Zabana, who endured a fruitless trip to the Festival last year when shying and unseating Davy Russell at the start. He went on to beat Outlander in Grade One company at Punchestown in April, stepped back up in trip to 3m1f. He'll be better for the run.It might be that Gilgamboa gets a spin in the Gold Cup this year, given the Ryanair trip was palpably too sharp in March and he has since finished a creditable fourth in the Grand National. He ran with credit when going down narrowly in the Fortria Chase over an even more inadequate trip on his seasonal debut. It might also be that connections miss the Festival and go all out for the National.At Carlisle last month, the extremely likeable Seeyouatmidnight trounced a never-at-the-races Bristol De Mai in a one-sided match at Carlisle. The winner, deemed an improved horse by trainer Sandy Thomson, is entered in Saturday's Betfair Chase and the Hennessy.Meanwhile, at Wetherby the previous day, Aintree Grade One novice chase winner Native River made a respectable return over hurdles and now heads for the Hennessy.