Lydia Hislop Road to Cheltenham Champion Hurdle archive

February 9 2017

The final mutiny for the bounty of the Stan James Champion Hurdle has taken place: both the last two winners, Annie Power and Faugheen, are overboard. The crew has control of the ship."We had hoped Faugheen had just tweaked a muscle but we've had it checked out and it's a stress fracture," said Mullins. "It's a real shame… we needed everything to go right [in order to make the Champion Hurdle] and obviously it hasn't… We'll try to get him ready for Punchestown."His confirmed absence removes much of the mystery surrounding the race - whether he would run, whether he retained the brilliance he showed in last year's Irish Champion Hurdle if he did, and whether many rivals would care to turn up against him. There had been an air of negative expectation for some time. 

 The first mutineer above deck had been Buveur D'Air, whose reversion to hurdles after two low-slung but successful novice-chasing assignments was presaged by an entry in this race back in mid-January. It was then announced last week that the Champion Hurdle was definitely his aim.Trainer Nicky Henderson has since only confessed to raising the subject with Barry Geraghty, JP McManus's retained rider, in the Cheltenham weighing room on Trials Day at the end of last month and about half an hour before Faugheen was announced a non-runner in the Irish version.It certainly didn't look the wrong call at Sandown last Saturday, although he had even less to beat than it appeared on paper with runner-up Rayvin Black appearing less than enthusiastic and Irving not putting up any fight at all in first-time cheekpieces. But after getting in a bit close to the first hurdle, Buveur D'Air got full marks for artistic impression. He clearly snapped straight back into hurdling."Barry jumped five hurdles on him on Tuesday morning and we didn't even need to do it again," Henderson said afterwards. "This was part of my reasoning really: his chasing technique still had a little bit too much hurdle in it and that's where he worried me."Watching him at Warwick, he was still hurdling. He can always come back chasing… Assuming he doesn't win the Champion Hurdle!"Another strand to his reasoning had been watching all the trials and feeling the opposition was much of a muchness - including fellow McManusite Yanworth, whom he acknowledged is "a good young horse", The New One, of whom he is clearly - like most of us - very fond, and his own My Tent Or Yours. Buveur D'Air, he feels, has "untapped hurdle potential in there"."It was smooth, it was nice," he said. "There's a lot of improvement in him because when you're novice chasing you're probably not getting those sort of hard races. To be fair he hasn't actually had a hard race this season."Interestingly Henderson made a point of mentioning stablemate Brain Power - who was originally set to represent him in the race - in his post-race interview on Racing UK."I would have liked to have run Brain Power as well but he's very unproven in soft ground. I just couldn't see this doing him a lot of good. He might go straight to the Champion Hurdle - in fact, more than likely will do, because I don't think he's for Kelso."He'll go to a racecourse [gallop] here or there but he worked very well this morning and is in good shape. You mustn't leave him out."That's a significant mention for a horse who has manned up considerably this season, is progressing fast and already has more robust form in the book than Buveur D'Air. The latter is all about that untapped potential but you're being asked to take 7/2 about it.Geraghty declared Buveur D'Air "very slick over his hurdles" and agreed that he was muscling into his Champion Hurdle favours alongside Yanworth, albeit no decision need be made until long after that horse hopefully makes his return from a slight setback. He made the point that Jezki, like Buveur D'Air, was beaten in the Supreme yet came back to win a Champion Hurdle.Asked to compare his Sandown winner and Yanwoth, he said: "They're both straightforward, have enough pace for two miles and get further - that's what you need for a Champion Hurdle. They were both placed as novices in last year's Festival. They're very similar."Asked whether Buveur D'Air possesses more intrinsic pace than Yanworth, he didn't agree, pointing out that he'd only ridden the former on testing going. He didn't feel such conditions were important to his chances, however.Faugheen's exit is likely to concentrate the mind of others, also. The New One, for example, must surely now run here and despite reports to the contrary, it must increase the likelihood that novice Moon Racer will join him. Trainer David Pipe had previously said the race would need to fall apart for him to jump that way…The fascinating question is what Mullins will do. A couple of firms have added Un De Sceaux to their markets but if connections doubt he's quick enough for the Champion Chase on a sound surface, they're hardly going to try this. The real game-changer would be Yorkhill and, more specifically, which race Ruby Walsh wants to ride him in.It was suggested on the Racing Post's website that the JLT is the likeliest aim of Yorkhill's three entries. I think it's by far the least likely. Why, when you've got a horse rawly talented enough to win either the Champion Hurdle or Arkle would you run him in a less prestigious and valuable race? You wouldn't.Had Min still been standing, I would be certain Mullins would switch Yorkhill here but the double whammy opens up a new landscape of uncertainty. Is the presence of Altior in the Arkle a less appealing option than an open-looking Champion Hurdle?Or has time simply run out for him to get a hurdle prep-run in the bag even if it means Walsh would unthinkably be left without a realistic chance in the big hurdles event? (With apologies to Nichols Canyon, who also now surely runs here and not in the Stayers' Hurdle.)I'm going to cover both options and place a safety-net bet at 3/1 NRNB with Sky Bet about Yorkhill for this race. Cue him running in the JLT…

February 2 2017

Even if the cynical among us failed to reel with shock from last Saturday afternoon's announcement that Faugheen would miss the next day's Irish Champion Hurdle, it should give us pause that rider Ruby Walsh was palpably taken aback when told the news live on ITV Racing by Oli Bell.In his column in that day's Racing Post, trainer Willie Mullins had reported it had taken "much longer than anticipated to get Faugheen back on track" but the "day has finally arrived" in the Leopardstown Grade One in which he had so greatly impressed last year."He hasn't run since that 15-length win and had to miss defending his Champion Hurdle crown due to a suspensory injury," Mullins said. "He had another hold-up this season but we're very happy with him now."Then it emerged he'd tweaked a muscle behind, forcing his withdrawal and bringing the number of missed targets to three, Mr Christian. Of course this news came just three days after Mullins was forced to concede Annie Power, last year's winner of the Festival's flagship hurdle, would miss Cheltenham. An update on her future is expected next month.Things are reportedly looking up for Faugheen, however. "[He] is a lot better today," Mullins said on Monday. "He walked out much better this morning and hopefully he will be back riding out in a few days."Clearly, if Faugheen is going to make it to the church on time, he'll have to go straight there without a sharpener in the local. Given who his trainer is, you can't confidently dismiss the notion he'll be sharp suited and word perfect on 14 March. But when Mullins has achieved this feat in the past - with Quevega, say - the absence was neither so prolonged nor, more critically, unplanned.And that's even before we get to find out whether he retains all of his ability at the age of nine. You've got to be against him at 6/4 even with NRNB haven't you? And even if you can get the remaining 5/2, don't you think bookmakers will be fielding against him and he could be longer come the day? Especially given that the prospective field is swelling by the day.We can safely shelve the tenuous concept that stable (and owner) companion Vroum Vroum Mag might be among them, however, after she struggled to dispatch a markedly inferior rival over two miles at Doncaster last Saturday - of which more follows in a more appropriate section.But the first of the circling vultures has landed: Buveur D'Air, as predicted here three weeks ago when he was available at 40/1, has thrown his hat into the ring. Trainer Nicky Henderson revealed the change of heart on Tuesday, the seeds for which had already been sown by the entry a fortnight ago and surely budded when Faugheen missed his latest target. Instead of his intended next step in Saturday's Scilly Isles Chase, Buveur D'Air will run next over hurdles.That's good news for stats fans because, as Tony Keenan (@RacingTrends) pointed out via a Twitter spot quiz last Sunday, the strike rate for chasers switching to hurdles and winning a Grade One in Britain and Ireland at the first time of asking is 1-73 since 2003.That one horse was Lieutenant Colonel, as @Rhys_N_Williams realised (narrowly) first, in the 2014 Hatton's Grace - a race condemned by runner-up @steveryder13 (the 13th of the Steve Ryder clan) as "shocking".I suppose the standard of switchers is likely to be self-selectingly low because their connections were aspirational enough initially to believe better could be achieved over fences and discouraged enough abruptly to engage reverse. Big Buck's is the poster-boy for the long-term rewards for such decisions.This logic behind this latest switcher looks sound to me, even if Buveur D'Air does ultimately fall short in the Stan James Champion Hurdle. His chasing technique is perilously low slung and, while he got away with it at Haydock and Warwick, he probably wouldn't at Cheltenham.Stable-companion Altior has palpably taken to fences better and was superior over hurdles anyway, so it would seem fruitless to take him on in the Arkle. Despite what his trainer keeps saying about longer trips, the fact is (rightly, in my opinion) Buveur D'Air has never raced beyond 2m1f. He's also beaten a certain Petit Mouchoir both times they've met, as Henderson pointed out, whereas stable-companion and now fellow Champion hurdle contender Brain Power, for example, was comfortably held by that horse when they met at Punchestown in April."Faugheen is still the best hurdler in Britain and Ireland and could still be tough to beat but it was a decision we had to make now and Barry Geraghty came and schooled him this morning and he jumped beautifully," he said. "He is a very good hurdler and has close form with Petit Mouchoir so it made sense to go back over timber."Before dealing with that rival, who enhanced his Champion Hurdle claims with a strong performance in the Faugheen-less Irish version last Sunday, let's consider what Buveur D'Air's participation means in terms beyond his own sphere. What does it say about fellow entries Yanworth? Jezki? Dual runner-up My Tent Or Yours? All of these horses are owned by JP McManus.For Yanworth it perhaps held less significance than for the others - although subsequent news of a setback ruling him out of this Saturday's Contenders' Hurdle at Sandown underlines that it's never a bad thing to have options."Yanworth has a slight tweak on the rear hind quarters. He needs a few easy days so he won't be able to run at Sandown," trainer Alan King reported on Wednesday, who would consider running him at Wincanton on 18 February even if that means clashing with a stable companion."I'm expecting him to be all right in a few days and if that is the case we would seriously consider the Kingwell Hurdle - we have Sceau Royal in that but they have different owners. Or he could go straight to Cheltenham."McManus has always been happy to be multi-handed in Festival races if his trainers believe the target is right. That said, the addition of Buveur D'Air to his Champion Hurdle hand doesn't exude ultra-confidence about Yanworth - but then we knew that already from the form and the betting. And even a setback anticipated to be this minor is far from ideal less than six weeks prior to such a rigorous target.Buveur D'Air's participation might mean Jezki sticks to the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle and that connections sense My Tent Or Yours is on the downgrade. He could well end up conceding weight in the County instead.But the wisdom of the McManus/Henderson twist will be tested rather sooner than initially projected after the trainer opted to step into the vacancy created by Yanworth this Saturday. That means Buveur D'Air faces stablemate Brain Power, who's owned by Michael Buckley, and gives King the option of utilising Henderson's original target of Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle on Thursday week for one or other of his contenders.Whereas Henderson expressed some doubt about Brain Power handling the testing ground at Sandown, he knows Buveur D'Air will love it - and the final climb to the line. But at this stage, it's hard to envisage him being anything more compelling than in the mix, even for a Champion Hurdle that may take less winning than assumed at the outset. He was comprehensively outpointed in last term's Supreme by Altior and Min. But 40/1 would have covered it…Talking of Min, Bet365 have floated a 4/1 NRNB kite for this race despite him needing to be supplemented and looking a more complete article over fences. Expect that to go the way of Paddy Power's short-lived 3/1 and then 2/1 NRNB Altior concept. If any member of the Mullins massive is gonna be a-switching, surely it's the errant-jumping Yorkhill.It strikes me that there are two potential flashpoints for this: whether Yorkhill's next start is over fences or hurdles and the Champion's supplementary entry stage a week beforehand. Neither scenario would spell good news for Faugheen fans but the latter could be terminal. You can even envisage the younger horse getting a supplementary entry as 'a precaution'.The defeat of Nichols Canyon - owned, like Yorkhill, by Andrea and Graham Wylie - by Petit Mouchoir last Sunday is probably not of itself significant. Past records show the Wylies are happy to be guided by what Mullins - and Walsh - deem best. That's what you pay an operation that good for, after all. And surely, whatever race Yorkhill contests, the Wylies will deem it a deal-breaker if Walsh is not on board. So it all depends on Faugheen, like it always did.Nichols Canyon has neither been at his best this season - I'm even unsure now about the worth of his wide-margin success at his favourite Punchestown in November - nor yet ever suited by Leopardstown, so it wasn't surprising to see him beaten by Petit Mouchoir.It was hard work for him even to try to get on terms with a relentless pace set by the winner and it didn't help that his habit of jumping right was markedly in evidence. He would surely have finished only third had he not stepped at the last and fallen.Stablemate and runner-up Footpad was flattered by his final proximity, having briefly looked a threat approaching the last under an enforcedly picking-up-the pieces ride from Daryl Jacob. It is to the winner's credit that despite having done hard yards on the lead, he didn't look likely to get caught on the run-in."It's hard to do what he has done now twice - go a strong pace from the front and keep going," observed trainer Henry de Bromhead. "He's not a fast horse at home but he is a great galloper."His presence in the Champion Hurdle - particularly if joined by The New One - should ensure a strong pace and that's would test Faugheen's jumping in a way that was never examined when he won the 2015 edition. Walsh's rivals handed over what few cards they possessed when they allowed him to dictate the pace - a run style via which he's meted out all his best performances. For an on-song Faugheen this would probably be mere quibbling. But…Meanwhile the 5/1 about Petit Mouchoir isn't tempting for a horse thumped in last year's Supreme and, although one substandard run at Cheltenham is nowhere near enough evidence to constitute a track concern, it's nonetheless floating in the back of your mind. That said, his new trainer has succeeded in finding a more advantageous run style than in this horse's novice days.Finally in this section, some bookmakers introduced last Saturday's emphatic Naas winner Sutton Place into the Champion Hurdle market; the current best deals are 16/1 NRNB with Paddy Power or 33/1 ante-post with Betfair. It was by some margin a career-best effort to defeat Supasundae, a first-division horse at two miles, by seven-and-a-half lengths lengths conceding 5lb.Of course, he's another McManusite so nothing less than authoritative victory in Newbury's Betfair Hurdle on Saturday week could prompt a supplementary entry. The handicapper would raise him 10lb to a mark of 158 were this not an early-closing race, so instead the horse carries half that in penalties.Note that Sutton Place is unproven on anything other than testing ground - surely fine for that target but potentially less so for the Festival.

January 25 2017

Of course, when Twiston-Davies spoke those words he could not know that four days later Mullins would announce one of his two Champion Hurdlers would not make the Festival. However, the fact neither had been sighted on a racecourse to date this season naturally prompted competitors and punters alike to take positions predicated on various turns of event.Earlier this week, Willie Mullins had been in top tantalising form when speaking at the launch for Sunday's BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle - a race in which he fields four of the six five-day entries, including 2015 Champion Hurdle victor Faugheen."The Champion Hurdle is the big one. At this stage I wouldn't rule out the possibility of both of them running," he said then. "Both of them have won the race, so what do you do? Run both of them or only one and go for another race with the other?"This might have been said as part of the promotional show or it might have betrayed that even then Mullins was not confident either one of his Champion Hurdlers would return to their peak. Whatever, that particular high-class problem is now unfortunately academic,For the Stan James Champion Hurdle, Annie's departure means stablemate Faugheen is now best priced at 13/8 on ante-post terms or 5/4 NRNB with Paddy Power. It only renders what he does at Leopardstown this Sunday even more critical - if that's possible. Another no-show or signs of vulnerability or deterioration would see the vultures circling.The number of likely contenders would swell. Nobody's going to be running scared of Yanworth. Yorkhill could be supplemented - something already not beyond the realms of possibility - and anything less than a scintillating display over Sandown's fences on Saturday week from Buveur D'Air could see him heading the same way, if not sooner. Paddy Power even makes Altior 2/1 NRNB. I draw the line of plausibility right there.

January 19 2017

Entries for the Champion Hurdle were published this week and Willie Mullins was responsible for nine of the 28 names. However, neither 2015 runner-up Arctic Fire nor 2016 Neptune hero Yorkhill - suggested as a possible by owner Graham Wylie on ITV last weekend - appeared among them.Arctic Fire has been missing as long as Faugheen - who has been entered, along with Annie Power - after chipping a bone during exercise last February. You might interpret the absence of Yorkhill as a reassuring signal from the Mullins camp that they're confident one of the last two winners of this championship race will turn up.Mullins is seeking a record-equalling fifth win in the contest. Speaking last week, he was more confident that Faugheen would make Cheltenham than the Irish Champion Hurdle later this month but speaking more recently on At The Races he was more optimistic about the well being of both the market leaders."Both worked nicely this morning so I'm very pleased with them. Both horses are pleasing me a lot more now than they have been," he said. "We'll see how they go between now and then [the Irish Champion Hurdle]. I'd like to get Faugheen there and Annie Power to the mares' race at Punchestown - that would be the ideal scenario."Wylie said he'd like to see whether Nichols Canyon could still be a Champion Hurdle horse given he might have finished second to Annie Power in last year's edition bar for a final-flight error. That certainly suggests the Stayers' Hurdle has slid down this horse's agenda.He'd surely be more of a player in the two-mile championship than eking out suspect stamina for half as much again but his right-jumping bias under pressure deters me from fancying him even in a diminished Champion Hurdle.Despite a relatively upbeat report about 2015 Triumph Hurdle winner Peace And Co a couple of weeks ago, Henderson has not entered him here but both Top Notch and - fascinatingly, as suggested last week - Buveur D'Air do appear alongside My Tent Or Yours, Brain Power and L'Ami Serge from the Seven Barrows massive.That 40/1 is still available at William Hill about Buveur D'Air or, perhaps more temptingly, 25/1 NRNB with Paddy Power.As stated from the outset of his season, eight-year-old novice Moon Racer has been entered.

January 11 2017

The yak has been mighty for this race in the past week with potential players now crowding at the wings of this small stage while the principal actors are still 'resting'. That's left the audience unsure how to react.Willie Mullins has entered Faugheen and Annie Power, along with five stable-companions (perhaps tellingly, not including Arctic Fire), for the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of this month. However son and assistant Patrick told the Irish Independent that neither of the past two Champion Hurdle winners is a certain runner."Faugheen and Annie Power are both riding away and are of similar fitness," Patrick said. "Hopefully, Faugheen can start to sparkle in his work and we can get him back to the track. Neither he nor Annie has sparked and Dad is taking a patient approach."We'd have liked to have Faugheen out earlier but we've not been happy with the way he has sparked - he hasn't in the way we'd have liked. It's nothing serious and he's riding away again but we're very much erring on the side of caution with March the main aim."Annie Power only had one run before Cheltenham last year. If we're not 100 per cent happy at the end of the month with either, we'll wait some more."Perhaps with any other stable alarm bells would be ringing more loudly but we've witnessed Mullins win Festival races from a standing start before - Quevega's repeated successes in the David Nicholson perhaps being the best example - and you'll recall that one of the key reasons given for not running Vautour in the Gold Cup last year was that he hadn't sparked. He still managed at catch fire right on cue.There are also the understandably high expectations of Ricci to manage. He commented in his chairman's blog for BetBright this week that he's "very hopeful" Faugheen will run at Leopardstown on 29 January. "We are not there yet but the signs are positive," he said. Annie Power was not mentioned.Meanwhile, Pricewise aka Tom Segal has tipped recent Musselburgh winner Superb Story for this championship event and Nigel Twiston-Davies has confirmed it as The New One's target via the Haydock trial he traditionally wins unimpressively after jumping right throughout.Henderson has also sorted through his list of potential players - albeit, intriguingly, he omitted the most interesting subject of recent yak. Brain Power got a mention - he runs in Sandown's Contenders' Hurdle and "is learning to race properly and jump properly".My Tent Or Yours is still hanging in there: he "probably just hasn't come to his very best this year" but is "well capable of coming back, as we saw in the Champion Hurdle last year." The difference then, of course, was we hadn't seen him at all; this time we've seen his husk three times."A lot of people told me I was crazy thinking Sprinter Sacre was going to do it last year so we've got to keep believing," Henderson argued.Overly-zestful 2014 Triumph Hurdle winner, unraced since pulling up in last term's Champion, Peace And Co lives and breathes - with the emphasis on the latter. It would be quite a feat were his trainer able to conjure him back to his juvenile brilliance."We're creeping into respectability," said Henderson. "Behaviour is good. We only tinkered with what you would consider a minor wind procedure in the autumn and he had quite a reaction to that and was in hospital for a good month."We are probably quite a way behind but having said that we are making good progress now. The horse looks fantastic. He hasn't galloped yet, but he'll be entered anyway."L'Ami Serge, who was outstayed and/or out-battled in the Relkeel earlier this month, was also mentioned as a potential contender. He could face The New One at Haydock but he surely isn't strong enough for this Cheltenham event, in body or spirit.Conspicuous by omission in this round-up was Buveur D'Air, who would thrive in a strong-paced two-mile contest such as the Champion Hurdle often is. We'll find out next week whether he merits an entry; were it not for Yanworth already having planted a flag in this division for JP McManus, I wouldn't be surprised to see this low-jumping chaser revert to the smaller obstacles.That's just a thought at this stage, though, as Henderson has suggested Sandown's Scilly Isles Chase in February as his next target. At least that test-drives whether stepping up to 2m4f suits him. If not, it could be all change afterwards with the Grand Annual another option. He's 40/1 for this race with Hills.January 4 2017Superb Story was well backed to win Musselburgh's feature hurdle on New Year's Day and duly obliged. He was well positioned and his jumping flawless but he still needed driving out on his first run for six months and conceding upwards of 10lbs all round. He found more than enough for pressure.Trainer Dan Skelton had previously raised the possibility of taking the Champion Hurdle route with stablemate North Hill Harvey after he won the Greatwood but his absence from the Bula-Sigh-International might suggest a 6lb rise to 147 has kept the County Hurdle option open.Superb Story won that race off a mark of 138 last year but had since flopped in the Galway Hurdle when, according to Skelton, "everything that could go wrong did go wrong". The horse also bumped his leg on returning home and hadn't raced since."Superb Story runs well fresh and I didn't want to do too much with him before this race. If anything I think he might have blown up a little in the closing stages," said Skelton. "He will probably go straight to the Champion Hurdle now without another run and we'll give him an entry in the County."The horse is still clearly progressing and did shape as though a lack of match-fitness blunted his authority, so lofty ambitions are worth a shot. It means the supporting cast for the Champion Hurdle is starting to swell but that could change when or if Faugheen and/or Annie Power show their face. Should they not, of course, the rest of the field ceases to be understudies.However, O'Leary is confident both of this division's ghosts will appear at or before Cheltenham, tempering his enthusiasm for Gigginstown's emphatic Ryanair Hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir, whom he confirmed heads for the Festival's two-mile showpiece."Petit Mouchoir is entitled to enter the Champion Hurdle picture now but while it was a very impressive performance at Leopardstown, there was no Faugheen or Annie Power in the line-up," he said."He didn't surprise us [at Leopardstown] because we thought we had the Fighting Fifth Hurdle in the bag with him before he fell last month at Newcastle."I wouldn't mind these doubts about Annie Power or Faugheen as Willie [Mullins] is training them for March and not now. We have a Champion Hurdle contender and nothing more than that at this stage."January 1, 2017The Champion Hurdle this week gratefully received two RSVPs to what still threatens to be only a small gathering of two-mile hurdlers. However, if Yanworth jumps as scrappily in March as he did when winning the 32Red Christmas Hurdle on Monday, he'll be torched by halfway.That is, of course, if any of the flame-throwers actually turn up. How many key races have ante-post favourites Faugheen and Annie Power missed so far this season? Three, Mr Christian.So it is understandable that Yanworth is now 5/1 third favourite for the Cheltenham event, even if a thoroughly competent if unpolished defeat of The New One was the least you could expect from a Champion Hurdle pretender.Trainer Alan King admitted the combination of sharp Kempton and a lack of deadening rain had bothered him beforehand. Both he and jockey Barry Geraghty were of the opinion that if Yanworth were ever to get beaten "it would be round here" but they wanted to learn something rather than take the "easy option" of this weekend's Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.As a result, King declared he'd learned Yanworth is "very much in the equation" for the Champion Hurdle. "But I still think we're just scratching the surface with this horse," he added. "He keeps on surprising me."It wasn't exactly poetry at Kempton but it undoubtedly was a career best. Yanworth made a sizeable mistake at the second and lacked fluency on other occasions, albeit he got better when it mattered most from three out. Having been slightly outpaced on the home turn, he was careful when in close at the second last and then ridden to get on top approaching the last.King freely admits this horse would have been trained for the Stayers' Hurdle had Unowhatimeanharry not been acquired by Yanworth's owner JP McManus and promptly started dominating that division. But the trainer would now be "quite happy" to head straight for the Champion without another run, if the owner agrees.A strongly-run race, as that event usually is, would bring into play Yanworth's stamina but there is also the scenario whereby he's off the bridle and making mistakes from an early stage. At least we know he's got game compared with last year when he was just dotting up until beaten by Yorkhill in the Neptune and even once briefly shaped to run out. As King put it, his latest two runs have "manned him up" because he's been forced to find for pressure.Either the new bit credited with helping The New One to jump straight at Cheltenham only worked once or (whisper it) Johnson brings less baggage to the mission because, with the familiarity of Sam Twiston-Davies back on board, he reverted to jumping right from the very first hurdle.He was taken on by My Tent Or Yours from the fifth - under a pressing run style that has served the latter well in the past - and the pair had the winner off the bridle exiting the back straight until the pendulum swung away from them quite quickly. The New One hit the second last and, having been quelled by Yanworth, lacked fluency in jumping right at the last.It will be interesting to see what Nigel Twiston-Davies does next - he's never been a man to derive much meaning from defeat. Might he fly assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn's kite in a bid for the Stayers' Hurdle? If so, he could easily give the three-mile Cleeve Hurdle a whirl at the end of next month. I doubt The New One will stay, but it's worth a shot.A more unusual shout - especially for a man as staunchly loyal as Twister - would be to recall Johnson for the Champion Hurdle. In all but two starts in this horse's 27-race career, Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden the stable flag-bearer. Much as Johnson clicked with Native River, his forcing style was a welcome novelty for The New One at Cheltenham last time and could bring out the best in him again.My Tent Or Yours has played all of his passes now and must proceed to judgement. It was essentially good ground at Kempton and although this was his best effort yet this term, his form is currently falling well short of Champion standard. A Twitter correspondent (and Sportinglife.com's Ben Linfoot in a Weights & Measures column back in November) suggested the County Hurdle as a more viable Festival target and, albeit the New Course suits him less well, that's a fair shout.Ch'Tibello was outpaced on the home turn and held together to pick up what pieces he could from the last. That meant he might well have been third anyway had My Tent Or Yours not blundered and lost his footing at the last, when already set for bronze at best.At Leopardstown three days later, the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle risked becoming a damp squib when Faugheen failed to appear among the declarations. Although Walsh had been hopeful prior to Christmas that he would take part, his comeback target was subsequently revised to next month's Irish Champion Hurdle. That absence is becoming ever more yawning.Owner Rich Ricci subsequently moved to reassure fans when interviewed on At The Races. "He's there or thereabouts. I don't want people to worry," he said. "It's just been niggles - he got a stone bruise and then it got inflamed. It's very stop-start but he's working every day… He's close. We've had a good run for two weeks with him now and I hope we can keep that going."Instead it was stablemate and putatively Stayers' Hurdle-bound Nichols Canyon who flew the Mullins flag on this occasion and he was sent off the 2/5 favourite.However, as mentioned many times previously, Leopardstown has never been his favourite place: the track brings out his tendency to jump right and that habit was more pronounced than usual last Thursday. From the moment former stablemate Petit Mouchoir took over the lead after the first hurdle, Nichols Canyon was wasting time and energy at almost every subsequent obstacle. He even had to defend second spot from Ivanovich Gorbatov in the straight.One of the reasons for this frailty was his straining to keep pace with an utterly dominant winner. Petit Mouchoir, who'd fallen heavily on his second run for Henry de Bromhead at Newcastle in November, was again keen but from the moment he was ridden into the fourth last and unleashed a mighty leap, it was clear he was not for catching.The way in which he saw out this race gives substance to those who argued he would have won the Fighting Fifth - he was leading at the time of his fall - although he seemed to settle a degree better on this occasion. This was a huge step forward in the level of his form, backed up by a smart time.He's now, justifiably, 10/1 fourth favourite for the Champion Hurdle behind two hitherto no-shows and Yanworth. However, the contrast between his 18-length thumping by Altior in last season's Supreme and his subsequent narrow defeat by Buveur D'Air at Aintree makes me wonder whether flat tracks are his bag.

December 21, 2016

In the absence of any depth to this division, the fast-maturing Brain Power can now be considered a left-field player after he followed up his opening Sandown win with a seemingly authoritative success in Ascot's competitive two-mile handicap hurdle last Saturday.However the worth of that form can't truly be analysed when none of us know how the race developed as a whole - although the overall time attests to it being a smart performance. Trainer Nicky Henderson might have to revise his view that Brain Power is merely "a good handicap hurdler".His rate of progress, now he appears a more straightforward horse, certainly merits quotes for the Champion Hurdle. He's still available at 25/1 in a market in which at least two, probably three and perhaps more of those shorter than him won't run.The 32Red Christmas Hurdle was reopened to garner further entries and, when those names became known, Faugheen's name was not among them. Instead Vroum Vroum Mag could take on the likes of Yanworth, The New One and My Tent Or Yours.However Ruby Walsh swiftly quashed fears this indicated further troubles for the 2015 Champion Hurdle hero, who hasn't raced since obliterating the Irish Champion Hurdle in January after which he damaged a suspensory ligament in the spring and, earlier this season, bruised a foot."He's grand, not a bother on him. I'd imagine he's in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown on the 29th. I don't know if he will run there but it won't be too long until you see him," he said in his Racing UK blog on Wednesday."I rode him yesterday and he's fresh and well. He looks a million dollars. Does he retain all his ability? Oh God, he does. I would not be too worried about him."

December 15, 2016

All hail that Exeter abandonment: it's kept The New One over hurdles. I had a bad feeling about plan A this season. I have no concrete foundation for that opinion; it was merely an overt concern for one of jump racing's key modern characters and borne of a huge affection for that right-jumping honest bundle of a horse.The 2013 Neptune Hurdle victor was set to debut as a chaser at Exeter two Fridays ago but frost intervened and instead he was re-routed to Cheltenham's International Hurdle, a race he had won twice previously in 2013 and 2014.By winning last Saturday he equaled the achievements of those enduringly famous hurdlers, Birds Nest and Relkeel, and in doing so tacitly underlined how daft it is that this landmark in the National Hunt season has been robbed of its resonance by being renamed the 'International' rather than the Bula Hurdle. When placing The New One's achievement in historical context, it requires unwieldy explanation that these horses have not in fact won different races. Absurd.There is surely no logical reason why Cheltenham and/or Stan James persist with this title; much as the 'World' Hurdle should reverse-metamorphose into the Stayers' Hurdle, this touchstone race should revert to a more meaningful appellation.What would be lost by calling it the stanjames.com Bula Hurdle rather than the stanjames.com International Hurdle? Exactly nothing - apart from getting Cheltenham to re-examine its overarching name for the two-day meeting. Another plus! Yes, my friends, on the flipside there is much to be gained.Back to Cheltenham last Saturday and finally getting to see tactics that should have been enacted years ago with The New One.Ryan Hatch had for the first time been due to ride the talisman of Nigel Twiston-Davies's local yard but he had been unfortunately seriously injured in a fall on the preceding day. (Wishing you a full and speedy recovery, Ryan.) In his absence, the responsibility fell to champion jockey Richard Johnson, who carried out orders to the letter.The New One, who has always been a strong stayer at two miles, dictated the pace and posed My Tent Or Yours a question he was unable to answer - admittedly in rain-softened ground that would not have suited the dual Champion Hurdle runner-up, albeit he was in receipt of 8lb from the winner.As detailed in the Road To Cheltenham two seasons ago, the subject of a Champion Hurdle pacemaker for The New One was raised by his connections but that evidence of Thinking In Horseracing (However Transient) was never followed through. That was the year there was no obvious pace and Faugheen set his own - something we anticipated on Racing UK, arguing that The New One should step up instead. Would you credit it: he didn't, Walsh set his own fractions and Faugheen dotted up? Zowie.Palpably, a fit and well Faugheen is better than The New One - indeed he's better than any hurdler we've seen since Istabraq. However the robustness of the 2015 champion's hurdling technique under pressure at Cheltenham remains one of the great unasked questions of our racing era. It would be interesting to see The New One both contribute to that examination and advantage his own chance by front-running in that race. It's just a shame he'll be nine years of age when he first does it. Assuming he does…At least Twiston-Davies seems set on a fourth attempt at hurdling's premier prize. "The way we rode The New One today out in front is what he wants. Exeter was definitely the best abandonment that ever happened," he said."Chasing is well out of my mind until next year and we'll bash on towards another Champion Hurdle. He probably isn't quite good enough now. He certainly was three years ago when he was unlucky not to win. With different riding tactics and now he is going straight, maybe he can."However assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn had other ideas in the Racing Post on Monday: "I would try him over three miles and let the result dictate where to go after that. I've always felt he would get a trip and I would be keen to see him given a go at the World Hurdle. He's so relaxed and could use his two-mile speed."If mopping up available cash for two-mile prizes isn't important, then why not have a bash at, say, the Relkeel Hurdle over 2m4f or even the Cleeve over three miles. It's a division that, in Thistlecrack's absence and ahead of this coming Saturday's Long Walk Hurdle, as yet lacks a star. But it would seem a massive shame to relinquish one last long-awaited shot at the Champion Hurdle under - HALLELUJAH - advantageous tactics.Interestingly, last Saturday connections had also finally addressed The New One's long-apparent habit of adjusting right-handed at his hurdles - hardly ideal when taking on the best on a left-handed track - by applying a different bit. Johnson reported that it had seemed to work. Again: Zowie.The Bula - sigh, the International - was billed as not only an afterthought for the winner but also as high noon for My Tent Or Yours. He hasn't got his head in front since February 2014 and, although his second to Annie Power in the big one last March was a monster performance returning from almost two years on the sidelines, his latest three efforts have been well below his best.However the rain that fell steadily at Cheltenham last Saturday bought the nine-year-old another free pass - soft ground wouldn't have suited him; neither would the New Course's increased emphasis on stamina compared with, say, the task presented by the Old Course or Kempton's Christmas Hurdle. So the jury is still out on what this talented horse, afflicted by setbacks, is currently worth.Further adrift, akin to My Tent Or Yours, Old Guard ran better than at Haydock but without actually threatening. Conditions conspired against Court Minstrel characteristically picking up the pieces. Melodic Rendezvous is no longer good enough for the grade. Second-season hurdler Mister Miyagi has advanced his form this year but is surely suited by a greater emphasis on speed and has not yet proven his credentials at this level.

December 7, 2016

Faugheen is still missing. Unlike stablemate Annie Power, he made it to the forfeit stage for the Hatton's Grace last Sunday but did not appear among the declarations. Number of comeback targets missed by each to date this season? Two, Mr Christian.Mullins later explained: "We decided against declaring Faugheen for the Hatton's Grace as he missed too much time due to a bruised foot last month. We're hoping to have him ready to run over Christmas."Faugheen sustained his latest problem while preparing to run in last month's Morgiana while Annie Power missed that race due to displeasing in her preparatory work.It's worth noting that during this time - brief outlying blips aside - Faugheen's ante-post price for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair's exchange has only drifted slightly and Annie Power's has if anything contracted. Neither price trajectory indicates any panic button has been hit.The yard is still keeping us guessing on plans for their brilliant Neptune winner Yorkhill, yet to be seen on a racecourse this season and entered in both Grade One hurdles and novice chases over trips ranging from two to three miles this Christmas. Ho ho ho.

November 30, 2016

Granted another chance to prove herself a Champion Hurdle prospect in the Fighting Fifth last Saturday, Apple's Jade was unfortunate not to win and yet surely demonstrated that a sharp two miles on a sounder surface around Cheltenham's Old Course is the last thing she needs.The specifics of the Newcastle race - soft ground and a galloping track - played in her favour but she was still being nudged along to hold her position by young Jack Kennedy even before the fourth last and the long home turn.She was responding, however, until her feet were almost taken from under her when fellow Gigginstown raider Petit Mouchoir fell at the third last.Kennedy needed an uninterrupted run to the line on a stayer if he was going to win this Grade One event; instead, Apple's Jade got shuffled back by two better-travelling rivals in Sceau Royal and Hidden Cyclone once she'd recovered, meaning her pilot had to rein back even further and switch right around her rivals. Getting involved looked unlikely even at the second last but Kennedy's determined drive meant his filly failed only by a head-bobbing nose to claw back the far more experienced Irving.This was an excellent run - and surely a great relief after she markedly underperformed on her debut for Elliott - but the suspicion remains that Apple's Jade needs soft ground to be at her best or else (or perhaps as well as) stepping up in trip at this highest grade.Irving regained the title he won two years ago, having been thumped in 2015 when making mistakes and perhaps feeling the effect of a third quick run. However, he also ran poorly in the Kingwell when reappearing in February and we hadn't seen him since.He's proven capable fresh however and hung on in there under a cajoling ride from Harry Cobden after making a sizeable blunder when outpaced at the fourth last. He made an independent error three out but avoided the trouble and responded to pressure to lead narrowly in conditions he enjoys. Admittedly, Irving opened the door for Apple's Jade with an untidy jump at the last but, fortunate though he was in the wider circumstances to cling on, he possesses a shade more gears than the runner-up at this trip.This was a first Grade One success for young Cobden, who admitted Irving "was off the bridle all the way". Accordingly this eight-year-old, ninth in Vautour's Supreme, is no Cheltenham prospect - as winning trainer Paul Nicholls explained."He's had more problems than you can imagine," he revealed. "We couldn't even take him for a racecourse gallop but have worked and worked and worked him."There was no plan after today and he won't run for a while - I think he jumps better when he's fresh. I wouldn't mind running him over two-and-a-half miles but he won't run in the Christmas Hurdle - he'd get lapped in that - and won't even have an entry in the Champion Hurdle."At 11 years of age, the veteran of the party Hidden Cyclone acquitted himself with credit under a shrewd piece of placing by trainer Shark Hanlon. He was predictably able mostly to boss this field in conditions he loves and was only quelled at the second last.I'm heartened that King hasn't given up on the Champion Hurdle, even though Sceau Royal was beaten eight-and-a-half lengths here. His horse jumped with characteristic accuracy and travelled into the race relatively smoothly in the straight until floundering in the soft going from two out. Daryl Jacob, who knows him well, soon accepted his fate and eased his beaten mount.King had been worried Sceau Royal might have incurred some jar during his Elite Hurdle success on essentially fast ground last time, but a sound surface plays to the four-year-old's strengths far more than this bog did. He's been pushed out to 33/1 in some places and that's an overreaction to a predictable defeat.Petit Mouchoir had every chance - albeit having probably travelled too keenly for the conditions - when taking a heavy tumble on his second start for de Bromhead; like Apple's Jade, this was a vast improvement on their opening defeat by Rashaan at Down Royal. Outclassed Mirsaale once again had a massive sulk on.Earlier that day at Newbury, Sceau Royal's stable companion Who Dares Wins scooted away with the Gerry Feilden by nine lengths and punctured the ambitions of several improving rivals. King plans to run him in a valuable Ascot handicap next month; the horse finished only 14th in the 2016 Triumph, but his yard was in poor form at the time and he's since improved on the Flat. Non-undulating tracks suit him ideally, mind.The Champion Hurdle picture is likely to get a whole lot clearer, for better or worse, once the Grade One Hatton's Grace Hurdle has been staged at Fairyhouse this coming Sunday. A line-up denuded of its key stars or an unexpected result could cause serious upheaval in more than one market.Its latest forfeit stage already held one important revelation: that reigning Champion Hurdle heroine Annie Power, who missed last Sunday's Morgiana Hurdle due to displeasing Mullins in her preparatory work, is absent from the list of ten names.Faugheen, who also missed that race due to a bruised foot, did stand his ground. So the superb 2015 Champion Hurdle hero stands on the brink of his first racecourse appearance since January, soon after which he was sidelined with a sore suspensory ligament.Brilliant Neptune winner and stablemate Yorkhill is another original entrant absent from the Hatton's Grace and it was intriguing to read this comment from Mullins last Sunday: "Yorkhill is ready to come out but we haven't decided yet whether he will go over fences or stay hurdling."That could suggest Yorkhill's destiny this season hinges on how well Faugheen runs this Sunday - if he runs this Sunday. What that would say about Annie Power's wellbeing, I don't know. At the time of writing, Faugheen was removed from the Hatton's Grace betting after stable companions Nichols Canyon and Vroum Vroum Mag were backed. Curiouser and curiouser.In light of how volatile this market currently is, I'm making a move now to recommend Sceau Royal each-way. He more than doubled in price after losing on Saturday when the excuses were self-evident. In his Weekender column, King mentioned three quick runs and the travelling but played down the ground, whereas I think it was the ground. King also stated the horse would be put away, possibly until the Kingwell; there was nothing to suggest he's been deterred from his original target.I'm inclined to forgive this horse's below-par Triumph performance because the yard had lost its way during last term's major Festivals. Surely a slick-jumping hurdler so suited by fast conditions will be effective in the Champion Hurdle? He's an all-but-certain runner and you can't say that with confidence about any horse shorter than him in this market.

November 23, 2016

This division seems to be coming to a grinding halt. No Annie Power. No Faugheen. No Altior. No Faugheen. No Yanworth. No Faugheen. No Nichols Canyon. No Faugheen. Stopped. Short. Grinding halt. And not even bright red smeared lipstick, eyeliner and disheveled hair could distract from this glaring problem - although Mullins could always try it as a diversion tactic from what has been a tough start to this season."Annie [Power] worked bad during the week. I just wasn't happy with her and I want to see how she is over the weekend," Mullins admitted when she wasn't declared for last Sunday's Grade One Morgiana Hurdle. She wasn't alone…"Faugheen has a foot bruise and we can't do anything with him until that clears up," he added. "It's bad timing, [but] hopefully it's not anything more than that."He even doubted whether either horse would recover in time for the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse on Sunday week, which means we won't have set eyes on Faugheen for nigh on a year by the time he hopefully does make it to a racecourse.On Sunday, that meant Mullins asked Nichols Canyon to step up at short notice to beat two lesser stable companions, Sempre Medici and Simenon, and two rivals now owned by JP McManus, Jer's Girl and Ivanonvich Gorbatov.However, his trainer indicated the World Hurdle is "probably still the target", so he's discussed in the next section. The latter McManus representative was held up in rear and never got involved in the Morgiana. His Triumph Hurdle success is a lonely peak in his overall form.At Haydock the previous day, Ch'Tibello had surprised trainer Dan Skelton by winning its feature hurdle contest and taking the scalp of dual Champion Hurdle runner-up, My Tent Or Yours.Ch'Tibello had won the Scottish Champion Hurdle on his final start last season, postponing a switch to fences, before posting a similar level of form when third in the Swinton. He returned from a break at Ascot last time with a seemingly needing-it fifth in that competitive handicap behind Sternrubin.He probably took advantage of an uncompetitive, steadily run contest here but is nonetheless worth a spin in the Christmas Hurdle to see whether he's actually improved - we know he is suited by a flat track. You can argue soft ground hadn't hitherto seemed his bag either.Ten-year-old Melodic Rendezvous seemed to take well to first-time blinkers, racing with verve in conditions that suit him ideally. It wasn't that surprising to watch him outstay My Tent Or Yours for second - even if that rival settled better than is often the case, he's still proven best on a sound surface.But Nicky Henderson's quality hurdler is only a year younger than the runner-up and has suffered a career blighted by injury. He was returning from almost two years on the sidelines when chasing home Annie Power at the Festival in March, albeit he then went on to run (below that level of form) at both the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals.It's hard to think his moment hasn't passed - depending on whether anyone else turns up this year, mind. Of course, if the worst happens and Mullins' two big guns for some reason miss the Festival, he could always re-route Yorkhill to the Champion Hurdle…Finally, it should be noted that Gordon Elliott seems to be giving Apple's Jadeone more throw of the dice as a potential Champion Hurdle contender after the disappointment of her latest start. He's entered her in Saturday's Fighting Fifth at Newcastle where she could face in-form Sceau Royal and code-switching Top Notch, second in the race last year.

November 16, 2016

There's no point in fighting it: if one Mullins horse falls down in this division, another emerges to take his place. And with the slightly surprising news that the brilliant Supreme winner Altior isn't even going to dip his toe in these waters but goes novice chasing instead (despite currently being third best in the betting here), it's hard to see that changing.We don't yet know whether the scintillating Faugheen, the imperious 2015 winner, retains all of that large ability since damage to a suspensory ligament caused him to have been sidelined since last January, but the fact he holds entries this month and next suggests we may get a clue on that front soon.That's the first piece of information we need before we can start grouching about whether we're ever going to see him clash with Annie Power, his able deputy in the Champion Hurdle last season and hailing from the same Ricci-Mullins axis.Walsh did suggest say both "would be trained as Champion Hurdle horses this year, I imagine" but he stressed the final two words. He did offer more tangible information on Arctic Fire, second to Faugheen in the 2015 edition but off games since chipping a bone during exercise in February. He's back in the yard. Fact.In terms of Walsh's opinion of the ex-novices entering this division, he offered the opinion that Yanworth's jumping "isn't good enough" to win a Champion Hurdle and Ricci's own Limini "would need to improve".Sceau Royal has achieved the most substantial form in this division so far this term, by winning both at Cheltenham last month and then on quick ground in the Grade Two Elite Hurdle at Wincanton two Saturdays ago.Leoncavello didn't do much for the first formline when an in-trouble-from-the-top-of-the-hill seventh in the Greatwood, albeit on ground softer than he likes. The second success was better, with last term's Adonis winner Zubayr getting first run and briefly looking like he might put Sceau Royal under pressure but Alan King's four-year-old picked up impressively and had his main rival beaten even before that horse took a tumble at the last.From early in his juvenile career, Sceau Royal's main asset has been his quick-flick hurdling - a technique that can take you to the top level. He probably shouldn't be judged on muted efforts at last year's Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals which took place during the two months when the King yard's consistent strike-rate plummeted. This horse is improving and, albeit he must find more, 20/1 is not fanciful.North Hill Harvey won the Greatwood, in which he had the likes of top-weight Hargam, exposed as a cut below Champion Hurdle class last season, and the hitherto unbeaten Winter Escape, making his handicap debut on just his fourth start, well adrift.The winner was still travelling well approaching the penultimate flight in last year's Supreme, only to blunder and lose his position. Trainer Dan Skelton reckons he would otherwise have been second - "he's not in Altior's class". I think he would have been at least third - it's just how quickly he weakened after the error that makes me doubt he'd have got past Min.Skelton plans to keep North Hill Harvey to hurdles for another season but embarks on the Champion Hurdle trail with few illusions. Cheltenham's International Hurdle - that's the Bula to you and me - could be the next stop but Skelton doesn't expect his horse to make that grade. He sees him as a chaser, but wants him to get more racing experience before swapping disciplines.Hargam did race towards the disadvantaged inside for some reason and does prefer a sound surface, but he did finish tailed off. Winter Escape looked stuffy on his toughest assignment yet, jumping the fourth-last scrappily and steadily losing his pitch from there. He'll surely do better.Earlier that same day, David Pipe dropped it out that winning novice hurdler, Moon Racer, could get a Champion Hurdle entry. The horse is already seven and missed last season, so there are reasons to get cracking and the Pipes have never been averse to rolling the big dice, with much success.Although I'll discuss the horse's performance in the novices' section, I wouldn't blame anyone seeking to chance their arm each-way at 50/1 (William Hill) in this race.