Our flagship tipping column enjoyed 9/1 and 14/1 winners at Epsom last week - don't miss the latest Saturday selections right here.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 137pts profit, while he's 45pts up in 2023.
- So far this Flat season he’s tipped winners Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1 (R4), Roberto Escobarr at 9/2, Austrian Theory at 9/1 and Cadillac at 14/1.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, June 10
1pt win Korker in 1.15 Haydock at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Cosmic Desert in 2.25 Haydock at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Kork-ing bet for in-form Burke team
The overall quality takes a dip after the Classic highs of last week but fast ground prevails for another competitive-looking Saturday card at Haydock, where the main focus of the terrestrial television coverage lies.
It’s a pity the two feature Group races aren’t exactly pulsating betting attractions – the Sky Bet Lester Piggott Stakes and Sky Bet John Of Gaunt Stakes containing just the six runners apiece – although the earlier action just about makes up for the fact and I’ve been drawn into a bet in the opening Sky Bet Achilles Stakes which is an open-looking Listed sprint.
Frankie Dettori rides top-rated Equilateral for the in-form Charlie Hills on conditions the old-stager (horse, not rider) is bound to appreciate, but he’s going to eat up a fair chunk at the head of the market and hasn’t actually won a race in Britain since September 2019. I can happily take him on without too many fears.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Keith Dalgleish’s lightly-raced three-year-old Prince Of Pillo – the mount of Ryan Moore – must have fair claims if he’s kicked on from his promising juvenile days, though that’s clearly a significant enough if when we’re dealing with one at his sort of price.
Regional is one of a bunch of horses looking to bridge the gap from top-level handicaps to pattern class and he certainly deserves his chance after winning at the Dante meeting, but if you’re keen on him then York runner-up KORKER has to be on the radar too and I’ve always felt he could make his mark in good company.
A course and distance winner as a two-year-old, Korker added just one score to his tally last term when successful at York in May but he did run really well - again at this track - when runner-up as the only three-year-old in the field when rated 103 in a 0-105 handicap here in September.
He looks to have strengthened up again at three based on recent evidence and was a bit unlucky not to beat the front-running Regional, having missed a beat at the start and had to make his challenge from well off the pace.
Subsequent to that run he went off favourite for another competitive York handicap and lost all chance at the stalls again, this time getting completely wiped out by a wayward Sound Of Iona and never able to recover.
He obviously has one or two quirks himself, like most talented sprinters in fairness, but the crucial element here is that Karl Burke’s horse should get a searing pace to chase courtesy of Fine Wine and the reopposing Regional (same terms), who are conveniently housed either side of the selection who will emerge from stall four.
Burke and jockey Clifford Lee remain in great form and, with El Caballo in the John Of Gaunt and Poptronic in the fillies’ race, it could be another good day in the north west for the yard.
Desert could spring a surprise on Kent debut
Long-term Wokingham fancy Lethal Nymph looks to book his spot in the Royal Ascot race by winning the Sky Bet Reverence Handicap, although I’m not sure trainer Clive Cox would have picked stall one had he been given the choice, especially with market rivals All The King’s Men (nine), Mr Wagyu (11) and Silver Samurai (14) posted more towards the stands' side.
Unlike his half-brother River Nymph, I do think quick ground is a positive for this horse, though, and dropping him a pound for the comeback run at Windsor looks far too hasty – on his impressive Ascot win from September I think he could take a bit of beating.
We'll leave him at single-figure odds this weekend and instead have an each-way bet on the outsider of the field in the Better Betting With Sky Bet Handicap.
There are two Godolphin runners in this race, namely Saeed bin Suroor’s pair Global Heat and Live Your Dream, but it's the ex-Charlie Appleby representative COSMIC DESERT who looks over-priced.
Now trained across Newmarket with Terry Kent, the horse went for £100,000 at Tattersalls Ascot in the spring and he’s certainly an interesting purchase.
There was evidently something amiss when signing off for Appleby with a limp run in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket in the autumn as he’d been really consistent prior to that, placing in quality novice/maiden races won by New London and Deauville Legend at the start of the season before finally getting his head in front in a 10-furlong handicap on quick ground at Sandown in August.
He's obviously still got it to prove over this longer trip but is bred to stay and looks well worth another chance. In fact, his natural speed could be a massive asset in what may turn out to be a slowly-run race containing a bunch of rivals who would ideally want softer ground and/or more of a stamina test.
Cosmic Desert is largely unconsidered in the market at 14/1 and bigger, and I’ll be backing him each-way with one of the firms offering four places in this.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 09/06/23
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