Royal Ascot tips: Best antepost value bets for Royal Hunt Cup and Wokingham Stakes
Our long-range expert picks out 25/1 shots he's keen to get on side early ahead of next month's Wokingham Stakes and Royal Hunt Cup.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Royal Ascot, 2023
1pt win Blue For You in Royal Hunt Cup at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Lethal Nymph in Wokingham Stakes at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
Summer conditions against Wokingham fav
Orazio backed up an equally striking Newmarket win when scooting clear of his rivals on Ascot’s ‘trials day’ card in mid-May and, having immediately been made favourite for the Wokingham Stakes at the Royal meeting on the back of that, there’s no denying he could yet have loads more to offer for a Charlie Hills team that evidently knows the time of day with progressive sprinters.
However, the handicapper has stepped in with a severe-looking 9lb rise and that, coupled with the fact his only previous run on fast ground yielded a proper no-show at York two summers ago and is said to need some cut in an ideal world, is enough to put me off the double-figure odds still being dangled after 90 horses were left in the big betting race on Royal Ascot Saturday.
One of the most eyecatching entries is the George Boughey-trained Baradar, who has never raced over six furlongs in his life but brings some strong mile and seven-furlong form to the table after finishing third in the Lincoln and sixth in the Victoria Cup last time out.
There’s every chance he’ll have the gears for a stiff six in the right circumstances, but his profile is littered with excellent efforts on soft ground and he’s another who failed to figure on his only previous start on a good to firm surface – in last year’s Buckingham Palace.
Perhaps the seven-furlong contest will be the target for Baradar again this time around and he won’t be alone in having that option as well, but I'd be surprised if LETHAL NYMPH went for anything other than the Wokingham and it’s worth chancing he ultimately creeps into the final 28-strong line-up.
Granted, this horse was twice tried over seven furlongs in his debut season last year but he looks a slightly different model to half-brother River Nymph in that he’s definitely a step quicker and also seems to cope perfectly well with quicker conditions.
One thing he does have in common with his sibling and Clive Cox stablemate is that he looks to already have an affinity with Ascot, having visited the place twice in 2022 and won on both occasions.
The second of those course and distance victories, in a 0-105 three-year-old-only handicap at the end of September, was particularly impressive and the second and third home both won on their next starts to put a bit of extra lustre on the two and a half-length triumph.
Connections blamed the good to soft (‘tacky’) going for his poor run at York the following month and I’m happy to strike a line through the recent comeback effort too as he was hampered at a key stage at Windsor and the run looked to be needed anyway.
The handicapper has left him unchanged on the revised mark of 96, still 7lb higher than the last success, but sprint king Cox can surely eke out a little more improvement from this lightly-raced four-year-old this term, and the 25/1 on offer with a trio of major firms looks a decent price ahead of his eagerly anticipated return to Ascot.
Red-hot Hambleton to produce Hunt Cup hero
The Hunt Cup is equally as tough to crack - antepost or on the day itself - but we could conceivably see a Royal winner here in the shape of Saga, who should probably have won last year’s Britannia and again looked a little unlucky when beaten a head on his first run of the season (gelded over the winter) at Newmarket earlier in the month, the winner just getting first run on the Rowley Mile.
However, the blinkers tried last year and cheekpieces most recently highlight the fact he’s possibly not quite putting it all in and he now faces an even stiffer task having been bumped up 4lb for the HQ defeat.
Instead I’ll focus on the Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap run at York last week (replay below) as the first seven home are all entered at Royal Ascot and not one of them can be ruled out with much conviction.
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Astro King was the one everyone seemed to take from the race after Richard Kingscote was denied a clear passage and could only run on for fourth without really going for maximum effort on the six-year-old.
Formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute, he was making his debut for Daniel and Claire Kubler at York and it looked the archetypal prep run on which to build next month.
Astro King, now favourite with most firms, has previous when it comes to the Hunt Cup, of course, and while twice beaten in the same race off similar marks in the past (runner-up off 1lb lower in 2021 and fourth off 3lb higher 12 months ago), his chances of hitting the frame for the third year in succession are pretty obvious.
Hambleton winner Croupier is up 3lb which doesn’t look overly harsh, while the second and third – Point Lynas and Northern Express – have both been nudged up 2lb and may yet find some more improvement.
A couple of lengths behind Astro King came David O’Meara’s pair of BLUE FOR YOU and Bopedro, and the former appears to be sitting on a big prize this summer.
Considering it was his first start for 215 days and he had a wide trip from stall 20, the decision to ease him 1lb to 101 looks more than fair, especially considering how much he improved on his first run back last May as the season wore on.
His key piece of 2022 form again came on the Knavesmire when cheekily getting up close home to justify favouritism in the big mile handicap at the Ebor Festival in August and he looked borderline pattern class on that occasion.
It could be argued his next two starts, both of which came at Ascot, were below par, but on reflection he ran well enough when seventh dropped back to seven furlongs on the first of them, while good to soft ground was seemingly against him on each occasion.
I'd maintain there is no better target trainer than O’Meara when it comes to these valuable mile handicaps in Britain and he’s surely had the Hunt Cup in mind since this horse’s rating hit triple figures last summer, which makes the general 25/1 too good to miss as he's very much the type to shorten quite significantly in the coming weeks.
Published at 1600 BST on 28/05/22
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