Value Bet tips: Saturday February 19
1pts win Top Ville Ben in 2.05 Haydock at 8/1 (General)
1pt win The Galloping Bear in 2.40 Haydock at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Flashjack in 3.15 Haydock at SP
More Saturday success for red-hot Deutsch
Brian Hughes aside, there can’t be many jockeys riding with quite as much confidence as Charlie Deutsch at the moment and he looks to have a superb book of rides at Ascot on Saturday, including Fanion D’Estruval in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase.
Fakir D’Oudairies’ presence in this line-up is admittedly a little a bit daunting, and the rest may as well not turn up for the Ryanair Chase if Joseph O’Brien’s horse franks 2021 Ryanair winner Allaho’s form against the pick of the Brits in this division this weekend, but hopes remain quite high for Fanion D’Estruval.
Beaten 54 lengths when fifth in last year’s Ryanair, he just looks a much stronger model and better jumper this time around, and there was no disgrace at all in narrowly failing to concede over a stone in weight to a rejuvenated Phoenix Way over this course and distance last month, when he the eventual runner-up was arguably sent for home a shade too soon.
I fancy him to give the Irish horse a serious run for his money here, while Deutsch can also look forward to plum rides on Skytastic (for Sam Thomas) in the opening novices’ hurdle, that one’s stablemate Good Risk At All in the handicap hurdle, and Williams’ new recruit Houi Cherie in the mares’ bumper.
On top of that, I was all for backing the Williams-trained, Deutsch-ridden Hold That Taught from out of the weights in the greatbritishstallionshowcase.co.uk Swinley Handicap Chase, but his odds contracted rapidly throughout Friday and could get shorter still with Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early having a preferred engagement on the same day at Wincanton. I'd probably want something close to 10/1 to lure me back into Hold That Taught.
I’m consequently happy to give Ascot a miss entirely but hopefully Haydock beats the weather as there are some good betting opportunities on a quality card which also features antepost Cheltenham fancies Porticello (click for full Triumph preview) and Green Book (likewise, Albert Bartlett) putting the finishing touches to their Festival preparations.
Jones another top rider jumping for joy
Ben Jones is a jockey having a not too dissimilar time of things to Deutsch, despite not really attracting the headlines, and I can see him landing the William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase on THE GALLOPING BEAR, Jones’s only ride of the day.
Unlike a number of these, The Galloping Bear is completely unexposed and despite emerging from the relatively uncompetitive point-to-point/hunter chase scene, is now a perfect 3-3 over regulation fences.
He put a hurdling fall in December behind him when winning the Surrey National at Lingfield last month, where he was value for way more than the winning margin (two and a half lengths), having been up with the pace throughout and passed the post with his ears pricked (full replay below).
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The handicapper hasn’t gone mad in raising him just 5lb and he looks one from which the in-form and upwardly-mobile trainer Ben Clarke will keep extracting further improvement.
Bad ground and a thorough test of stamina are right up this horse’s street and I’m convinced he’s over-priced at double-figure odds.
If there’s one who could be completely thrown in against The Galloping Bear here then it is Time To Get Up, whose re-emergence the weekend after the Grand National weights (no penalties for Aintree, remember) being released comes as no shock whatsoever.
He won a hot edition of the Midlands National last March and although pulled-up in the Grand Sefton on his comeback in November, no doubt that was something of a scouting mission. He has had leg issues in the past, though, so might not be one for maximum faith until he starts showing a bit more spark. I can certainly let him go since all the 12/1 dried up pretty sharpish.
Bank on Ben who should be very hard to overhaul
I was kicking myself for not backing TOP VILLE BEN at Lingfield’s Winter Million meeting last month as - generally speaking - I love staying chasers returning to hurdles when the ground is really deep as they tend to be far more battle-hardened and able to cope with such conditions better than those more used to the way races are run over the smaller obstacles.
Luckily, we get another bite at the cherry as Phil Kirby’s Grand National-bound 10-year-old is sticking to this discipline for the time being, and is once again being underestimated in the betting for the William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle.
Granted, this is a tougher race in terms of overall class but I’m surprised Top Ville Ben didn’t earn at least a small ratings rise for his Lingfield defeat of the reopposing Emitom, having been left on 140 in this sphere. And if you go back to his peak chase rating of 164 just a couple of seasons ago it’s clear he shouldn’t really have too much to fear from market leader Thomas Darby (155-rated hurdler), who has to concede 6lb anyway.
Top Ville Ben should also get the race run to suit, Timeform predicting a ‘very weak’ pace in their Race Pass forecast, and the selection is the only confirmed front-runner in the field. He’s a tough one to pass at that and his only previous completed start here at Haydock resulted in a bloodless, 29-length victory over hurdles on heavy ground.
Anything north of 7/1 looks good value and he should be backed accordingly.
Age before beauty in Pertemps qualifier
The ability to get down and dirty in the conditions could be crucial in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle too and old boy FLASHJACK appeals on that score.
He won a staying handicap from a mark of 134 under Richard Patrick here in December 2019 and, quite lightly raced since, has been given a massive chance now dropped in the ratings to 125. Patrick also returns to the saddle for the first time this season which may be significant.
The 12-year-old wasn’t at his best at Chepstow when last seen over Christmas but had made a fairly decent start to the season when third at the same venue earlier on in December. Those two races weren’t run at much of a gallop but Flashjack should get more of a stamina test here with No Hiding Place expected to live up to his name tactically.
He’s not been this low in the handicap for four seasons now and I’ve seen enough this term to warrant a small bet with conditions very much to suit. The general 14/1 is perfectly acceptable but he’s hardly likely to be a flashy market mover so I’d recommend backing at SP as you may well get bigger on the day.
Published at 1500 GMT on 18/02/22
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