Our man had a 10/1 winner in his last column and is back to preview this weekend's action at Kempton.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday February 24
2pts win Blackjack Magic in the 3.37 Kempton at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Arclight in the 2.27 Kempton at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betway)
The main action over jumps this coming weekend comes from Kempton, which is always an interesting card, featuring three Grade 2 events, but the big betting race is the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, and this year’s renewal once again has an interesting look to it.
They received 15mm of rain on Sunday, changing the ground to soft, good to soft in places, but with up to another 20mm set to fall later this week, conditions could be testing for all Kempton generally drains well.
That isn’t sure to suit the current market leader Flegmatik, who did this column a turn when winning over course and distance last month, and can also boast a very positive record at this track. However, his last three wins (all of which have come at Kempton) have come on ground that Timeform described as good to soft, while he generally hasn’t shown his true colours on soft or heavy ground in limited attempts.
Flegmatik was a close second in this race 12 months ago from a 5 lb lower mark and will once again command plenty of respect at his favoured venue, but at a top price of 9/2 I am more than willing to take him on this time given I’m not totally convinced he will be suited by likely conditions.
Anthony Honeyball has three options in this race, but the one who I was surprised is as big as he is in the betting is BLACKJACK MAGIC, who remains relatively lightly raced over fences, and goes particularly well in soft and heavy ground.
He made a promising start over fences last season, winning two of his three completed starts, and the form of his reappearance win in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton looks particularly strong. His two stablemates who also hold entries in this, Forward Plan and Sam Brown, were in behind him on that occasion (the latter pulled up), and he beat a Paul Nicholls-trained duo of Threeunderthrufive and the recently retired Frodon into second and third.
Threeunderthrufive has since finished runner-up in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham and won the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot last weekend from a BHA mark of 152.
On the face of is, Blackjack Magic hasn’t improved as expected in two starts since, but he ran a solid race when finishing fourth in the Howdon Silver Cup Chase at Ascot next time (Flegmatik finished a length in front of him in third but is now 3 lb worse off at the weights), and he shaped much better than the bare result at Sandown on his latest start earlier this month.
Blackjack Magic was in the process of running a good race there, still having every chance approaching the second-last where a less-than-fluent leap put halt to his chances. He didn’t jump as well as he can on the whole that day, but Sandown can be a tricky test for some horses, so it may be unfair to crab him too hard given he is usually a sound jumper on the whole.
Furthermore, his last two starts have come on considerably faster ground than what he faced when looking so impressive at Wincanton on his return and, though Kempton isn’t the stiffest track in the world, Blackjack Magic isn’t devoid of speed, and he will relish the return to more testing conditions.
Given how promising and progressive he looked on his return, and that he has arguably had excuses on his last two starts, I was surprised to see him available at 14/1 for this, for all it is a deeper race than he faced at Sandown last time. He is just 6 lb higher than for his Wincanton success, form which has been well advertised since, while his Ascot run also received a boost when Yeah Man won the Grand National Trial at Haydock, too. I can see him setting off quite a bit shorter on Saturday and he looks a knocking bet at this stage from what is still a workable mark.
I had a look at the Eider over at Newcastle but nothing interested me at this stage at the prices, but I can’t resist staying at Kempton and siding with the Nicky Henderson-trained ARCLIGHT in the Pendil Novices’ Chase.
It is a race that Paul Nicholls has dominated so far this century, but his two entries don’t excite me, and the market leader, Nickle Back, very much got the run of the race in the Scilly Isles at Sandown three weeks ago and now has a Grade 1 penalty to carry. Indeed, he was very impressive last time, and also recorded an excellent timefigure, but he may not get such an easy time of it in front this time (Bourbali is also a keen-going front-runner).
Arclight herself usually isn't too far from the pace, either, and she has made a superb start over fences, her fast and accurate jumping a particular standout so far. Admittedly, her debut success came in only a low-grade novices’ handicap at this course, but she was so electric that day, having plenty in hand, and the form of her last two wins in listed events for mares is proving strong.
She easily beat a next-time-out winner at Exeter in November, while the third and fourth have both won races since, and Nurse Susan who finished down the field on what was her chasing debut has since won a couple of competitive handicaps back over hurdles.
Arclight again made light work of a next-time-out winner – who bolted up in a handicap from a mark of 127 at Uttoxeter – at Wincanton last time, while the fourth also won on her next start. For sure, this will represent a totally different test for Arclight now moving into graded company against the boys, but she is a horse that looks very exciting and her strong-travelling nature and accurate jumping suggests she will be up to the test.
In my view, there are some question marks surrounding some of those who are currently ahead of her in the betting, so I think the 10/1 which is available is pretty fair when taking her sex allowance into consideration. Timeform described the ground she won on at Wincanton last time as heavy, so likely conditions shouldn’t pose a problem for her, and she is a horse who, in my opinion, is far from reaching her ceiling.
Preview posted 1230 GMT on 20/2/2024
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