Andrew McLaren is in the Weekend View hotseat this week and has an antepost fancy at Newbury on Super Sprint day.
Weekend View: Saturday July 19
2pts win Wild Waves in the Back The Super Boost At BetVictor Handicap at 8/1 (bet365)
One of the more low-key weekends of racing on these shores, sandwiched in between Newmarket’s July Festival and the King George at Ascot next week, followed by Glorious Goodwood, but Newbury’s Weatherbys Super Sprint card still leaves us with some intriguing betting puzzles to get our teeth into.
The Listed Steventon Stakes over 10 furlongs kicks us off on Saturday and it will be interesting to see what sort of performance Okeechobee can produce after his disappointing comeback run at Kempton in April. He looked ready to test his metal in Group One company after winning the Gordon Richard Stakes on his final start last season, and he’d be the one to beat in this if at his best, but it was concerning how hard he pulled before fading into fourth on that Kempton return and he’s been off for another 89 days since. He’s clearly fragile – a six-year-old having just his eighth start – and those concerns are enough to put me off backing him at 5/1, for all he could outclass this field.
The forecast suggests Newbury could be hit by some heavy showers on Saturday morning, and if that gets into the ground it would bring Ancient Wisdom into play. His form when splitting Al Aasy and Almaqam at Sandown reads well now, with the latter beating Ombudsman in the Brigadier Gerard next time. He paid the price for trying to put it up to the pacemaker in the Coronation Cup, looking to have every chance two furlongs out before fading into fifth, so you can forgive him that, but I’d want to see some ‘soft’ in the going description before parting with my cash on him.
Enfjaar looks the most solid option. He hasn't been blessed with much luck since winning the John Smith's Cup last year but has been threating to come good in a race like this for a while. He was one of the worst sufferers in a messy contest at Royal Ascot last time when things got tight on the inside rail before running on to take fourth after his winning chance had gone. He's yet to fully translate his classy handicap form to pattern company but leaves the impression he has it in his locker, and Saturday could be the day he fulfils that promise. He’s not been missed in the market though, currently the 3/1 ante-post favourite, and I can’t imagine he’ll be much shorter on the day.
A very long-winded way of saying – no bet.
I do think there is a bet to be had in the Back The Super Boost At BetVictor Handicap though, and that’s WILD WAVES for Andrew Balding, who has a few entries in this. The selection shaped extremely well when fourth in the Melrose at York last season, coming from much further back in the field than the trio who beat him, and he was probably unlucky not to win that day. He was out of his depth in the St Leger the time after, but acquitted himself well to finish sixth in the Doncaster Classic, and ended the season looking a staying handicapper to follow this campaign.
It didn’t quite go to plan on his first few starts this term, but he showed much more in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot last time where he was third behind Willie Mullins’ Sober and Gordon Elliot’s Samui, and the latter was a good second to Al Qareem in the Group Three John Smiths Silver Cup at York on Saturday, giving the form a small boost.
Hopefully that performance can be a springboard for Wild Waves to kick on again now and deliver on the promise he showed last year. Of Andrew Balding’s three entries in this, he is the only one with a jockey currently booked (James Doyle), and his price will will shorten significantly if he is the only representative from Kingsclere on Saturday. The 8/1 on offer is well worth snapping up now.
The rain forecast to fall on Saturday morning could have a significant impact on the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes with plenty of the market principles, namely Regional and Elite Status, usually reliant on fast ground. Regional in particular was pulled out of the July Cup last year when the rain arrived, so his participation can’t be guaranteed.
The 8/1 about Kind Of Blue could look a big price come Saturday afternoon, but last year’s QIPCO BritishChampion Sprint winner has only beat one rival home in two runs this season, leaving him with a bit to prove now, and it’d take a leap of faith to back him on this season's form. He’s a Group One winner running in a Group Three without a penalty though, and will appreciate any rain that falls. Yeah, that 8/1 is tempting if you are of a forgiving nature.
I can leave him alone for now though, and the Super Sprint is not an appealing betting proposition at this stage of the week with the draw often so crucial in that race, so I'm happy with the 8/1 about Wild Waves as the sole selection and hopefully that will send us into the weekend in a good position.
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