Our experts highlight a few horses on the radar this weekend for the Curragh, Newcastle and York.
Do you expect Kind Of Blue to bounce back in the Chipchase Stakes?
Matt Brocklebank: Despite finishing last of nine on his seasonal return in France earlier in the month, it could still be argued that Kind Of Blue remains capable of being Britain’s star sprinter of the year. The five-furlong Chantilly outing went wrong from the start and it’s just a very forgettable effort all round in pure form terms. He can definitely bounce back, the return to six furlongs a major plus and a switch to Tapeta of no great concern at all based on his pedigree (has already won on the Polytrack at Kempton himself). The one genuine leveller is the fact he has to concede the Group 1 penalty this weekend, and I can see a horse like Alyanaabi giving him a race if running right up to form back over a sprint distance. It’s likely to be a watch-and-learn race for me.
Ben Linfoot: He looks short enough to me at 11/8, I must admit. He’s a class act being a Group 1 winner in a Group 3 contest, but he carries a penalty for that and a bit of a wealth warning after rearing in the stalls at Chantilly last time. Added to that he’s had one run on the all-weather in his life when making a winning debut at Kempton, so it’s not as if he’s proven on the surface, either. I’ll probably try and get him beaten and at the moment the thriving Ferrous, a course and distance winner in a hot handicap here last time, tops the shortlist.
Tony McFadden: Kind of Blue was just about Timeform's highest-rated six-furlong sprinter in Britain or Ireland last season after winning the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes on his final start of the campaign. However, American Affair's victory in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last week offered a reminder that there's not always a huge gulf in class between top-end handicappers and Group horses in the sprint division, so Kind of Blue's task in the Chipchase Stakes under a 7lb penalty may not be a straightforward one.
Kind of Blue's reappearance at Chantilly was essentially a non-event after he blew the start, but we don't know whether he is firing on all cylinders yet this season and I'd rather side with the progressive Ferrous who is enjoying a fine campaign on the all-weather and completed a handicap hat-trick when successful over this course and distance last month.
Is there an angle to explore in the Northumberland Plate?
Matt Brocklebank: I’ll be revisiting the race for Friday’s Value Bet column, having already flagged up Dancing In Paris earlier in the week, and I’m encouraged to see he has a decent-looking draw in stall three.
I suppose the big question which may be a little overlooked surrounds top weight Onesmoothoperator, who absolutely sluiced up in this event last year before going on to win the G3 Geelong Cup in Australia. He loves this track, travels powerfully in a big field off a strong pace and I’m certainly in no hurry to dismiss him, despite the much higher handicap mark this time around.
Ben Linfoot: I don’t think a wide draw is a bad thing at all. It always used to be the other way around on the turf track in this race, but on the Tapeta the Plate winners have come from 3, 13, 11, 7, 17, 10, 14 and 12 and the data suggests that wide is the place to be considering every double-figure field that has been run on this track over two miles. Between 12 and 17 looks the hotspot and this year that part of the draw includes East India Dock, Zanndabad and Asgard’s Captain, who are all interesting runners.
Tony McFadden: Zanndabad looked capable of landing a big staying handicap when shaping best in third in the Chester Cup last season, so he's of interest off only 1lb higher here.
His only other starts on the Flat last season were respectable sixth-place finishes in the Ascot Stakes and Irish Cesarewitch, so he remains unexposed as a stayer. He was only seventh on his return at the Curragh a few weeks ago, but that should have teed him up perfectly for a crack at this valuable prize.
How has York’s inaugural version of the Criterion Stakes shaped up?
Matt Brocklebank: Every seven-furlong Group-race winner this year seems to be being touted for the newly-upgraded City Of York Stakes at the Ebor meeting so that tweak has certainly pumped fresh life into the division. I notice Saturday’s race has ‘win-and-in’ status for the G1 back here in August too so it’s no surprise to see such a strong line-up. What we do have is a probable strong gallop and I just wonder if the race will be teed up beautifully for Timeform’s top-rated Lake Forest, who definitely has the City Of York top of his agenda (William Haggas revealed as much the other week) and ran a very respectable fifth in what was a messy renewal of the Queen Anne last time.
Ben Linfoot: Very nicely indeed and the ‘run for free’ carrot that sees the winner get a slot in the newly-upgraded Group 1 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes at the Ebor Festival must be partly responsible for that. The last three years this race was run at Newmarket no more than six turned up and we’ve got eight in here including horses rated 114 and 116. Those two, Lake Forest and Prague, set the standard, but there are many interesting improvers like Formal, Paborus and Room Service in against them, so it looks a fascinating first heat for York. Formal, so impressive at Epsom, could be ideal for the relative test of speed over this trip at this track.
Tony McFadden: The race was usually won by a smart sort during its time at Newmarket and, on the whole, it seems to have attracted horses of similar calibre. I suppose Paborus and Formal are less exposed than the horses who typically contest the Criterion Stakes and have the potential to do better. Paborus looks especially interesting having impressed on his reappearance in a conditions race at Thirsk in April, looking well worth his place in Group company.
Where do you stand on Whirl v Kalpana (or something else) in the Pretty Polly?
Matt Brocklebank: Well I like them both, but prices trump any of that fluff and I suspect Kalpana is going to go off favourite so perhaps the value lies with Aidan O’Brien’s filly. Whirl might well have won the Oaks on another day and I think all along they’ve felt she would be at her very best over this 10-furlong trip. She looked potentially top-class when running away with the Musidora at York and nothing I saw at Epsom dented by belief that she’s going to be winning Group 1s at some stage. Getting 12lb from the older mares is a huge advantage for a progressive three-year-old and I couldn’t put anyone off backing Ryan Moore’s mount.
Ben Linfoot: I like Kalpana in this spot. Whirl is obviously respected after her Oaks second and she gets 12lb from the Juddmonte filly on the weight-for-age, but I think Kalpana’s form is stronger and back against her own sex she could be tough to beat after enduring a troubled passage behind Los Angeles at this track in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on her reappearance last time. This could be the launchpad for a tilt at the King George and the Arc for Kalpana and I’m not sure yet we’ll be talking about Whirl in those terms.
Tony McFadden: There's not a lot to split the pair on Timeform's ratings, though perhaps it may be an advantage for Kalpana that she has had only the one run this season, in the Tattersalls Gold Cup nearly five weeks ago, whereas Whirl put up big performances when winning the Musidora last month and when narrowly beaten in the Oaks just over three weeks ago.
Are you for or against Lambourn in Sunday’s Irish Derby?
Matt Brocklebank: The instinct is to take him on. He got an easy lead in the Derby and the ground was evidently far more testing than officially described (good) so I reckon he’s facing a very different test if the rain stays away at the Curragh this weekend. I really liked the look of Tennessee Stud going into Epsom and think he could (physically) step forward again, having clearly left his belated seasonal debut run well behind last time, while Green Impact is one of the outsiders I backed in the Guineas and he didn’t disgrace himself in sixth. Jessica Harrington’s colt has picked up a confidence-boosting win since then I’m quite hopeful he gives the favourite a run for him money too as he’s bred to appreciate the move up to middle-distances and has a touch of class needed to compete at this level.
Ben Linfoot: I’m not in a desperate rush to take on Lambourn and in what looks a bit of a boring division he could easily make all again just like he did at Epsom. I think the Curragh will suit this strong stayer and I am finding it difficult to see those beaten in the Derby reversing the form for all this is a different test. The one niggle with Lambourn is that he might be exposed for lacking a gear at some point and on ground that looks likely to be quicker than it was at Epsom that might bring Green Impact into play. He has to prove he stays, but he’s out of a Galileo mare who stayed 1m5f, so there’s hope in his pedigree, and I like how Jessie Harrington has slowly brought him back from his Guineas defeat. If Lambourn is defeated on Sunday, he could be the one.
Tony McFadden: Lambourn was a dominant Derby winner but I don't think he sets an insurmountable standard so I'd rather be against him than with him at odds-on. It's not difficult to forgive Pride of Arras for his disappointing display in the Derby as he clearly failed to handle the track, though alarm bells are ringing about how poorly the other Dante principals ran at Epsom. That being said, Pride of Arras had created such a good visual impression at York that, at the prices, I'd be willing to give him another chance back on a more conventional course.
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