Matt Brocklebank steps into Andrew Asquith's boots with a look ahead to the big handicap this weekend - he's got a Northumberland Plate outsider to consider.
Antepost Value Bet: Saturday June 28
1pt e.w. Dancing In Paris in the Northumberland Plate at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
The top-class action is in Ireland this weekend, with the Irish Derby meeting at the Curragh kicking off on Friday and running through to the Dubai Duty Free-backed Classic on Sunday afternoon.
That should be a fantastic three days but 15 minutes prior to Saturday’s Group 1 Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes, which may feature the likes of Kalpana and Tamfana among others, we have a proper betting race in the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate.
Newcastle’s two-mile handicap looks to present the best opportunity in which to pick off some early value and there’s no shortage of interest in the all-weather marathon as we’ve 62 signed up for a 20-runner maximum field at the final declaration stage come Thursday morning.
There is obviously the Vase – the consolation race – for connections to fall back on but predicting the cut-off point won’t be easy so early in the week as we’ve several who ran at Royal Ascot just last week, plus a few trainers with multiple entries.
They include Willie Mullins, who is often the first place to start in big-field staying handicaps on the level these days and has Pappano and Too Bossy For Us in the picture.
Too Bossy For Us didn’t quite meet the juvenile hurdle standards, having been seventh in the Triumph and fifth at Punchestown, but he has yet to run on the level for Mullins and surely has scope for further progress off his current BHA mark (89) having won at Ascot last spring off 76 and been placed behind a then in-form Align The Stars at Thirsk and Haydock, when rated 82 and 85 respectively.
He has a Group 2 entry in the Curragh Cup which is quite eyecatching too but he’s light on Tapeta experience and is passed over, along with equally well-fancied stablemate Pappano, who just missed the cut for the Copper Horse Stakes at Ascot. He did win two of his three all-weather starts for John and Thady Gosden so could have a part to play if lining up here, but there are more than enough question marks to put me off given he’s a single-figure price for Saturday.
The other two at short-ish prices are the James Owen-trained East India Dock and Andrew Balding’s Who’s Glen, first and fifth in the Ladbrokes Chester Cup in early-May. The winner has since finished a close sixth in a messy edition of the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles so it’s unclear whether he’ll turn up here but he’s got to be respected if doing so, despite finishing last of 10 in a Kempton maiden on his only previous run on a synthetic surface.
Who’s Glen is 0-6 on the all-weather but I wouldn’t hold that against the horse, who is clearly open to lots of further improvement after just nine lifetime outings and comes here on the back of a couple of highly encouraging efforts this time around.
However, you’re going back to 2019 for the last Plate winner to have contested the Chester Cup on their most recent start and if you’re sweet on Who’s Glen at 5/1 then you’ve got to be vaguely tempted by DANCING IN PARIS at about seven times the price.
His trainer Ian Williams has yet to have much luck in this race but that didn’t stop last season's winner Brian Ellison turning up year after year, and Williams has three possible candidates inside the top 30 at this point.
Dancing In Paris is all but assured of his place in the race as he’s number 21 on the list and I thought he was a shade unlucky not to win when briefly boxed in at a crucial moment in a mile and three-quarter handicap at Goodwood last month.
Beaten half a length into third that day, the winner was a certain French Master who was promptly bought by Wathnan and bolted up in first-time blinkers in last week’s Copper Horse. He's on the path to Group races, surely.
Dancing In Paris has, quite understandably, been nudged up another couple of pounds to a new career-high mark of 89, but all he did last season was improve and improve, and while he’s not yet got much two-mile Flat form in the book (did run in a Grade 2 novice hurdle in October), he did finish fourth in a good race won by Temporize on his only previous go at the trip at Newbury last July (Naqeeb was second and Kyle Of Lochalsh third).
Williams has enjoyed loads of success with this type of horse down the years and I like the fact his most recent win came on the often quite testing Polytrack at Southwell.
The second that day was a then three-year-old Who’s Glen, who was in receipt of 3lb, plus the 9lb weight-for-age allowance. That means Dancing In Paris is a considerable 16lb better off (in actual terms) with this weekend’s favourite, so I think there’s a very decent case to suggest he’s over-priced at 33s generally and 40/1 in a place.
WATCH: Dancing In Paris beats Who's Glen at Southwell
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