Epsom tips: Best value bets for Oaks day Friday June 2

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 130pts profit.
• So far this Flat season he’s tipped winners Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1 (R4), Roberto Escobarr at 9/2 and Austrian Theory at 9/1.

Value Bet tips: Friday, June 2

1pt win Austrian Theory in 2.35 Epsom at 9/1 (General)

1pt win Cadillac in 3.45 Epsom at 14/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Heartache Tonight in 4.20 Epsom at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Already advised:

1pt win Bluestocking in Betfred Oaks at 20/1 (Non-runner)

Oaks looks open behind obvious market leader

Good ground to kick off the Derby Festival on Betfred Oaks day and, with limited irrigation possible overnight into Saturday, you’d imagine they’ve left plenty of wriggle-room on that front with another drying day forecast.

There’s never much sting in the ground for this meeting anyway so there shouldn’t be any excuses regarding the underfoot conditions, which rather puts an immediate end to any debate over whether short-priced Oaks favourite Savethelastdance will be able to reproduce her Chester effort around here.

Last month’s Cheshire Oaks was a devastating performance from the daughter of Galileo, who had clearly been lurking in the background at Ballydoyle through the winter as she was the 20/1 stable third-string (and nowhere to be seen in the Classic lists) when first announcing herself in a 10-furlong Leopardstown maiden at the beginning of April.

Granted, she’s got a rather exaggerated knee-action and handled the wet weather better than most at Chester, but her breeding strongly suggests she could be a better filly on good ground and it’s going to take an extraordinary effort to beat her, something I don’t see coming from either of John and Thady Gosden’s horses over this distance.

Soul Sister showed genuine speed to win a slowly-run Musidora at York, while Running Lion – out of Roaring Lion who failed to stay the Derby trip himself – didn’t appear to beat a whole heap in the Pretty Polly at a muddy Newmarket over Guineas weekend.

The best each-way alternative is possibly HEARTACHE TONIGHT, who will be David Menuisier’s first Oaks runner but does at least bring Group 1 form to the table - Fillies’ Mile third Bright Diamond is the only other horse in the field with experience at the highest level.

Heartache Tonight, who has been campaigned solely on soft ground in France to this point, was last seen finishing fourth in the Prix Saint-Alary but she was only beaten a length and a half in a race not run to suit, and that came on the back of another promising 10-furlong effort when third in the Prix Cleopatre (G3) at Saint-Cloud towards the end of April.

A Longchamp winner over nine furlongs on her only start at two, the whole case for this daughter of Recorder (by Galileo) essentially hinges on her finding considerable progress for a more strongly-run race coupled with the first try at a mile and a half, something her half-sister Wonderful Time enjoyed as a three-year-old, herself a Group 1 winner at this trip.

She’s drawn 11 of 11 and Christian Demuro has never ridden around Epsom before, but I do think this lightly-raced potential improver has plenty to recommend her otherwise (the draw isn’t such a negative in truth).

It may seem a bit of a stretch given the expectations surrounding Savethelastdance, but if it transpires the best three-year-old fillies are across the Channel this season then this one hasn’t looked out of place competing at what has surely been an inadequate trip.

It’s really not hard to see her running a massive race and the general 20/1 is more than fair.

Beware the German Cup runner

The Dahlbury Coronation Cup is a belting contest again this year and it’s another outsider with form overseas who catches the eye – namely Tunnes for leading German trainer Peter Schiergen.

His peak performance came when running away with a Group 1 at Munich in October, a race won the year before by subsequent Arc heroine Alpinista, and he went on to run a creditable race from a poor early position in the Japan Cup.

He’d generally been up with the pace in his races prior to that so he’s an interesting one from a tactical perspective with no obvious front-runner in here, while he’s also arriving race-fit following a comeback second in a Group 2 back home in Germany.

Another for whom genuinely soft ground would have been preferable, I’ll let this one go unbacked as the huge and frankly insulting initial quotes of 20/1 are now long gone, unfortunately. If he eases back out to 16s-plus on the day, I might have to step in.

Theory looks to make perfect sense

There are some attractive races elsewhere on the card and I’m reasonably content to oppose All The King’s Men with blinkers now added to the tongue-tie in the Racehorse Lotto Handicap.

Trainer George Boughey was talking about a Buckingham Palace project for this horse at the start of the year but he’s not quite progressed as hoped and now moves up to a mile for the first time which doesn’t look guaranteed to suit.

I’m against Rhoscolyn too with the David O’Meara yard yet to fully click into top gear and Charlie Johnston’s AUSTRIAN THEORY is a bigger price anyway, which looks tempting.

He’s only won twice from 15 starts but was highly tried at two after winning on debut and suddenly finds himself very well handicapped again after three starts this year, one of which came on the all-weather, another on testing ground at Thirsk.

He was a much happier horse back on a sound surface when third to Boardman on Chester last Saturday, just lacking the gears for that sharper test over the extended seven furlongs, and while he’s due to be dropped another pound for future engagements, he’s still 8lb lower than when beaten half a length into third behind Koy Koy at Newmarket last summer, and 3lb lower than when beating Ghaly (won both starts since) at Hamilton the previous month.

Joe Fanning, on board for both of Austrian Theory’s career wins, is back on board here and with a couple of slow starters on his immediate inside, he’ll no doubt look to get out and across into a prominent pitch early on.

With the Johnston horses really rolling now the sun’s come out, he could be very tough to overhaul in that scenario.

Cheekpieces could really rev up Boughey's Cadillac

The Boughey-trained runner I do want to be with on day one is the rather mercurial CADILLAC in the Betfred Handicap over 10 furlongs.

A winner at Group 2, Group 3 and Listed level for Jessica Harrington, he only ran twice for Kevin Philippart De Foy but was runner-up in the (Listed) Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer and showed he still has something to offer during two starts for Boughey in the autumn.

Gelded over the winter and quite well backed for his belated handicap debut when reappearing at Newmarket early last month, he wasn’t much of a factor on the day but is another for whom a return to better ground will play to his strengths.

The limp comeback run has seen his mark shaved by another couple of pounds too so there’s no question he’s competitively treated from a revised 105 if back to anything like his best.

It’s hoped the fitting of cheekpieces may also contribute to a return to form as this horse bounced back from a low-key effort to win in first-time blinkers on his final outing for Harrington last June.

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Published at 1500 BST on 01/06/23

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