Derby and Oaks tips: Preview and best value bets for Epsom Classics in 2023

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 105pts profit.
• Desert Crown to win the Derby at 25/1 featured among his many winners in 2022 and so far this year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1 and Rebel Territory at 7/1.

Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season

1pt win Imperial Emperor in Betfred Derby at 12/1 (General)

1pt win Gooloogong in Betfred Derby at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)

1pt win Bluestocking in Betfred Oaks at 20/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Auguste Rodin completely dominates the long-range market (5/2 best price) for the Betfred Derby and has done so ever since he rounded out his juvenile campaign with a striking success in Doncaster’s Vertem Futurity Trophy on October 22.

Out of the fine Galileo mare Rhododendron, who was second in the Guineas and Oaks before winning the Prix de l’Opera, and sired by Deep Impact, Auguste Rodin is bred to be a brilliant three-year-old and trainer Aidan O’Brien didn’t exactly pour cold water on a possible Triple Crown campaign when it was put to him at a Ballydoyle press day earlier this spring.

That journey (should connections wish to try again, of course) begins with the 2000 Guineas in a couple of weeks’ time and there’s a huge amount of expectation going into that Classic as he’s favourite for Newmarket too at the time of writing.

If pushed, one suspects O’Brien has probably had this horse more in the Derby bracket over the Guineas since he started his career at the Curragh last June, but anything close to a victory on May 6 would undoubtedly see those Epsom odds contract even further.

When referencing Coolmore ‘trying again’, I’m obviously referring to their Guineas and Derby hero Camelot who very nearly pulled off the Triple Crown in 2012 but, interestingly, he was the last horse to win the Derby who had already tasted success at the highest level.

In addition, the past three Derby winners had never even raced in a Group 1 beforehand and if Auguste Rodin (together with the other top juveniles) is going to prove a star at three, as he was at two, then he’s obviously going to have to see off that wave of late-maturing horses which seems to have done so well in this particular event in recent seasons.

So who are the most eyecatching, lightly-raced colts sitting on Classic potential?

Charlie Appleby re-introduced the very well-bred Military Order in Friday's informative novice event at Newbury and he's likely to be heading the same route as his brother Adayar by taking in Lingfield next, but the trainer has another one waiting in the wings – IMPERIAL EMPEROR, already just 12/1 (general) for the Derby but highly likely to be a serious danger to Auguste Rodin based on his striking debut win as a juvenile. I expect this horse to follow his stablemate's lead and rubber-stamp his claims in a Derby trial over the next few weeks.

The son of Dubawi is a full-brother to First Ruler who was a nice three-year-old for the yard last summer (won 10f Ascot handicap off 93, has since won in Dubai over 1m4f) and you don’t have to dig far into the pedigree to see his dam was a top-class performer in the US, herself a half-sister to Ghaiyyath.

• Click here to back Imperial Emperor for the Derby with Sky Bet

Big things were clearly expected of Imperial Emperor first time up at Newmarket on October 1 and while that bare form hasn't exactly worked out, the third (A Dublin Lad) looks a nice three-year-old prospect for the Gosdens, and there’s no getting away from the fact the winner completely outclassed them from pretty early on in the race. Timeform rate him 110P after the single start which speaks volumes.

Ultimately, the official winning margin at Newmarket was three and a half lengths (replay below), but it was just a hands-and-heels ride from William Buick and the horse could have handled the Dip more smoothly, just changing his legs on meeting the undulations with a furlong and a half to travel but still maintaining his balance in fairness.

Imperial Emperor holds a Dante entry at York in just under a months’ time and, with the trainer making all the right noises about his progress through the winter, he’s definitely one I’m backing before he reappears on track.

The horse at much bigger prices I’m keen to bet on at this point is the O’Brien-trained GOOLOOGONG (111p with Timeform), who was introduced at 66/1 after winning his maiden in straightforward fashion from the front over 10 furlongs on heavy ground at Navan on March 29, and remains backable at 50s with a few major firms.

I could see him being considerably shorter on the day.

• Click here to back Gooloogong for the Derby with Sky Bet

Only fifth on debut after a sloppy start at Dundalk last November, the chestnut has had nothing like the exposure some of his stablemates have received and it’s worth stressing that his recent Navan maiden win came at a time when a few from the yard were looking ring-rusty, the much-vaunted Alexandroupolis, together with Denmark (and to a lesser extent outsider Mohawk Chief), primary examples when severely denting their own Derby credentials in the Ballysax Stakes.

Now, not for one minute could I write off Alexandroupolis as he must have been showing some impressive homework to have gone off odds-on for his pattern-race debut, and he could improve significantly for the outing at Leopardstown, but I’d expect a horse like Gooloogong to step forward massively again too as he gains more experience and builds up race-fitness.

As for the Navan form (replay below), there have been mixed messages emerging but I'm happy to take a generally positive view.

Granted, the runner-up Nation's Call could only manage a close third in a Cork maiden on Friday but the third home Young Ireland, who was beaten over 16 lengths by Gooloogong in the end, has since finished three-quarters-of-a-length second to Fozzy Stack’s Bright Legend at the Curragh, that pair coming just over four lengths clear of Dermot Weld’s Time Tells All, who was the 5/4 favourite on account of his promising debut second to O’Brien’s Drumroll at Navan in March.

Gooloogong’s next start will clearly be highly revealing and O’Brien's last seven Chester Vase winners (has won the race 10 times in total) were all inexperienced maiden winners, so I’d love to see this son of Australia pitched into that pressure-cooker atmosphere as it could teach him an awful lot prior to Epsom.

The step up to a mile and a half could suit as he’s a full-brother to Jessica Harrington’s 2020 Irish Oaks runner-up Cayenne Pepper, who was arguably a happier filly over a mile and a quarter but was perfectly effective at the longer trip.

If all goes well then this colt would be an interesting outsider to have onside if tasked with to trying to emulate his sire, Camelot, on June 3.

Where is the early value in the Oaks?

The Betfred Oaks looks wide open at this point so it should have come as no great surprise to see Never Ending Story promoted right to the top of the betting following her comeback win over seven furlongs in Group 3 company at Leopardstown earlier in the month.

Aidan O’Brien got loads of experience into her at distances up to a mile as a juvenile, like he does with most of the Galileos, and it could be the case that the master trainer is still slightly feeling his way with the Dubawi fillies.

There’s no question this one is extremely talented and she looks the type to carry on improving at three, with middle-distances very much within her compass on pedigree.

O’Brien also has No Nay Never filly Meditate right in the mix and she looked like she could stay just about any trip last year, having started out over five furlongs in April and ended up winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf with something to spare.

She’s the one they all have to beat in the 1000 Guineas if Dermot Weld opts to keep Tahiyra closer to home and they’d then no doubt have a decision to make over the Curragh or Epsom as there are only five days between the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the Oaks.

Elsewhere, Sir Michael Stoute pulled Desert Crown out of his hat to win the Derby last June and will be hoping Doncaster runner-up Infinite Cosmos could make up into an Oaks filly this time around, while Karl Burke is sounding bullish about Electric Eyes heading to Newmarket next month, and she’s bred to get a trip too which could see her pointed towards Epsom if everything goes smoothly.

What’s even more interesting is that Charlie Appleby doesn’t appear to have a crackerjack entered up at this stage, and it could be that his main hope will need to be supplemented for the Oaks.

I made the case for Dream Of Love winning the Guineas on these pages at the start of April and you’d imagine if she steps up to the plate on May 7 then connections might have little option as her dam Secret Gesture – a sister to the top-class Ballydoyle colts Japan and Mogul – was runner-up in the Oaks as a three-year-old.

That’s probably asking a bit much and Dream Of Love is only a best price 20/1 with those who have her in the market at all.

I’ll look elsewhere and focus on the Ralph Beckett-trained BLUESTOCKING (20/1 generally), who seemed to take plenty of people by surprise when winning at 9/1 first time out at Salisbury in September.

That effort already reads quite well on paper with three of those well beaten off having won races since, but we surely didn’t see anything like the finished article of Bluestocking on the day (replay below).

Sluggish when the stalls opened, she promptly raced keenly and then began to run green after getting bumped about a little when the pace started to increase.

Rob Hornby looked to try and move her out more towards the centre of the course for some running room before switching back right across towards the far side after the elbow. She was still disorganised but began to grab the ground with the rail to help inside the final furlong and in the end she was seemingly only getting started on passing the post (ears pricked).

• Click here to back Bluestocking for the Oaks with Sky Bet

It was a debut win full of promise and while her Group 1-winning dam Emulous was never tried beyond a bare mile, sire Camelot looks to have pumped loads of stamina into the equation.

Beckett has won the Oaks twice in the last 15 years so obviously knows what’s required and there must be a chance she’s another one we could see at Chester’s May meeting, with the Pretty Polly at Newmarket (10f) and Lingfield’s Oaks Trial the other two obvious potential starting points for this Juddmonte home-bred.

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Published at 1530 BST on 22/04/23

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