Doncaster and Kelso tips: Best value bets and preview for Saturday March 2
Our expert has pored over the Saturday racing and picked out the value on offer at Kelso and Doncaster.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 165pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, March 2
1pt e.w. Rich Spirit in 2.17 Kelso at 18/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4) - 16/1 General
1pt win Bass Rock in 2.50 Kelso at 33/1 (bet365) - 28/1 Paddy Power, Betfair
1pt win Little Mixup in 2.50 Kelso at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Ashtown Lad in 3.40 Doncaster at 14/1 (William Hill, BetMGM)
Strike it Rich at Kelso
A bunch of half-decent handicaps to get stuck into this weekend and I’m kicking off at Kelso where the ground shouldn’t be too bad and the prize-money is right up to scratch.
Pentland Hills was a personal fancy at Kempton last weekend before being taken out on account of the weather and I’d expect him to go close in the opening bet365 Handicap Hurdle, despite one or two fears over the Nicky Henderson yard in general.
I’d need a bit bigger price than the general 6/1 to be getting involved with him here, though, so will take aim at his stable companion Jango Baie with an each-way alternative in the Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle.
Justus is vaguely tempting coming clear of the others when failing to concede weight to Dysart Enos at Doncaster, while I was visually impressed by Alnilam when getting off the mark over the bare two miles here a couple of weeks ago.
However, experience could count for a lot in this and RICH SPIRIT isn’t short in that regard after five starts over obstacles, having had a couple of outings in bumpers too.
He improved to get off the mark in a minor event at Catterick in December, but I thought he took another significant step forward when second in a Doncaster handicap last time, just failing to reel in a thriving Geromino, who effectively got first run on him and held on.
The front two pulled over six lengths clear of the rest and it strongly suggested the six-year-old Rich Spirit had lots more to offer in terms of further progression. He’s been kept away from the worst of the ground through the winter but has got plenty of match practice along the way and might be sitting on a considerable PB heading towards the spring.
This sharp, left-handed track should suit him based on the evidence from Catterick and he tends to adjust to his left when jumping anyway, so I can see him at least holding his own for a stable that won this event with a 16/1 chance in 2013.
Rock superstar for red-hot Thomson
I’m a fan of the Henderson-trained Under Control but can’t be backing the diminutive mare at short prices under a big weight in the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle. Two horses appeal at much longer odds, including BASS ROCK for last year’s winning trainer Sandy Thomson.
Thomson, whose 2023 hero Benson tops the weights this time, is in superb form at the moment and the last time Bass Rock ran over hurdles he won a two and a half-mile handicap off a mark of 130 at Ayr in April 2022.
He backed that up when successful on chasing debut first time out the following season but seemed to lose his way around this time last year and definitely looked to have fallen out of love with chasing when a well-held sixth behind Fidelio Vallis at Musselburgh when last in action on New Year’s Day.
Given a couple of months off since then (has won three times when fresh in the past) and switched back to the smaller obstacles, it would be no shock whatsoever to see him rediscover his old sparkle and he’s clearly been given a proper chance with a mark of 127, having been as high as 141 over fences last February.
The other one I’m backing has a very different profile and that is last-time-out winner LITTLE MIXUP, who has never raced outside of Ireland but is back with his original trainer Denis Hogan – following a brief spell elsewhere – and looked better than ever when winning well at Thurles last time out.
The BHA handicapper hasn’t taken many chances with his revised mark of 132 for this, but he’s evidently on really good terms with himself and will arguably be happier back on a sound surface having won an 18-runner handicap on yielding ground at Naas around this time last year.
He’d previously landed an 18-runner handicap at Limerick and a 22-runner handicap at Punchestown so this sort of big-field scenario seems to suit the horse ideally and, while Hogan hasn’t had a winner this side of the Irish Sea for a while, I’m drawn to the booking of Mark McDonagh who takes off a handy 3lb in the saddle and is 2-7 when riding in Britain so far (1-1 at Cheltenham, for what that’s worth if getting any rides at the Festival).
Lad may come roaring back to form
At Doncaster, Numitor is worth a second look in the Free Digital Racecard At raceday-read.com Handicap Chase but I fear Tommy’s Oscar could take plenty of beating so won’t force the issue.
The Grimthorpe Handicap Chase is the big betting race on the card and I’m sure plenty of punters will be taking a similar approach with Some Scope who comes into this on a real upward curve after his easy win here last time.
He’s among a whole host of horses in the race that would have preferred some proper spring ground, though, and with the forecast the way it is, I’ll take a chance on old pal ASHTOWN LAD.
He’s not added to his 2022 Becher Chase victory but has only had five starts since and has been set some stiff tasks including the Topham in April and another shot at the Becher earlier this season. The 10-year-old has now been pulled-up on his last three starts and perhaps the fire has gone out entirely, but Dan Skelton won this race with a similarly mercurial type in Captain Chaos four years ago and now fits cheekpieces on Ashtown Lad.
The trainer’s record with first-time cheekpieces is encouraging (15/85 at 17.65%) and the horse clearly has loads of stamina and loves it soft underfoot.
Nothing to see at Newbury
Newbury could well be in a bit of trouble given the amount of rain they’ve had and with more to follow, on ground already described as heavy, I’m happy to give the meeting a pass.
I must admit, the closest I got to striking a bet was Bill Baxter in the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase as he positively thrives in testing conditions and has now slid back to a good mark, just 2lb higher than when winning the Topham in the spring.
The ground turned soft at Aintree that day and while his firm this time around leaves something to be desired in this sort of company, there were glimmers at Cheltenham late last month and he wasn’t exactly disgraced in the Coral Gold Cup here back in December.
I’d be a fraction concerned about the stable form, though, Warren Greatrex having had just four winners (45 runners) since the turn of the year, including a couple of 6/4 favourites turned over in the past fortnight.
You’re being reasonably compensated with Bill Baxter on offer at double-figure odds, but I’m content to play safe and take a pull entirely given the predicted rain.
Published at 1600 GMT on 01/03/24
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