Our man looks ahead to Friday's action at Chester and highlights the three horses he's keen to have on side.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 110pts profit.
- So far this year he's +21.64pts having tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1 (R4) and Gloire D’athon at 14/1 (R4).
Value Bet tips: Friday, May 12
1pt win Ffion in 1.30 Chester at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Maksud in 2.05 Chester at 10/1 (General)
2pts win Metier in 3.15 Chester at 6/1 (General)
Already advised
Metier should be clear favourite
Friday’s tote Chester Cup was blown wide open at Wednesday’s final declaration stage as the top two in the antepost market didn’t feature in the final field.
Green Book wasn’t declared at all – sadly – and anyone who backed Novel Legend after his impressive Newbury win had to swallow an even more bitter pill as James Fanshawe’s four-year-old missed the cut by one and consequently tops the weights for the Chester Plate at 4.55 instead.
So we're left with no real standout improver and it's perhaps inevitable that Falcon Eight, a former winner of the race and the mount of Ryan Moore, finds himself right at the head of the market, especially with his good draw in stall four.
Falcon Eight is also perfectly happy when the mud is flying, despite being a son of Galileo, and first time out isn’t an issue either, but he’s 4lb higher than when successful here in 2021, only a pound lower than when fifth last year, and isn’t a rock-solid favourite by any means.
The Thursday support for Call My Bluff, 2lb well-in after following home Novel Legend at Newbury, was to be expected, while I’m not taking the low-key comeback effort from Vino Victrix that day at face value as he looked like he needed the outing and his trainer Hughie Morrison is in much better form now anyway.
Benoit De La Sayette keeps the ride on Vino Victrix and there should be more to come from last year’s Cesarewitch runner-up as a five-year-old this season, but genuinely testing ground – and we can’t downplay that fact in spite of a relatively dry Friday forecast – isn’t going to be his bag.
It will suit Emiyn, and veteran Euchen Glen as well, but specialist ground is very much the domain of METIER and he looks certain to run his race on the back of a career-best Flat run in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh last month.
Only beaten half a length by subsequent Group 2 Sagaro Stakes runner-up Wise Eagle, the pair four and a half lengths clear of third Pleasant Man with Euchen Glen and Emiyn the next two home, a 3lb rise in the ratings for Harry Fry’s horse looks perfectly acceptable and while he’s never won over this far on the level, I’ve no doubt he’ll stay the trip around this track.
He definitely outstayed Emiyn on heavy ground in last season’s November Handicap (1m4f) at Doncaster and despite already being a bit of a household name after his Grade 1-winning exploits as a novice hurdler, it’s important to stress he’s still only run 10 times on the Flat in his life, and only three of those for his current trainer.
He was due to make his Flat debut for Fry in this very race last year, only to meet with a late setback on the Thursday, but conditions have clearly come right for him 12 months on and, given I’d have him clear at the head of the betting, he looks a very fair price at 6/1 generally (7/1 with bet365 if you can get it) despite being housed a few stalls wider than ideal in 14.
In-form Morrison to keep ball rolling
Back to Hughie Morrison’s good recent run of form, it could be worth chancing MAKSUD in the Precision Facades Handicap over 10 furlongs.
This son of Golden Horn was last seen putting in a disappointing effort in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket in October but a combination of hold-up tactics and the addition of a hood seemed to back-fire completely and he wasn’t unduly punished by Richard Kingscote when it became clear he wasn’t going to figure in the finish.
Prior to that he’d looked on the improve, kicking off the season with a debut success at Windsor and running well in Listed company behind Lionel at Goodwood (soft) before possibly not letting himself down on the much quicker ground at Royal Ascot, ending up fifth of the six runners in the Hampton Court Stakes.
Maksud’s key piece of form came at Goodwood where he followed home subsequent Voltigeur second Secret State, getting the better of progressive rivals Inverness and Soulcombe in the process.
Only 2lb higher than for that excellent handicap debut effort, he’s back down in trip and looks just the sort of horse who will take to Chester as he can sometimes race freely and might settle into things a little bit better being always on the turn around here.
The opening CAA Stellar Earl Grosvenor Handicap could be all about course regulars Boardman and Revich who hold excellent claims at the weights.
They’re not being missed in the betting, though, and nor is Ryan Moore’s mount Croupier, who could have more improvement in him than the aforementioned seven-year-olds and is surely capable of a fair bit better than he showed in last month’s Lincoln, a race that continues to work out so well.
Fast-finishing Ffion to strike again at Chester
One who seems a shade over-priced is FFION, David Loughnane’s mare who has finished inside the first three in 10 of her 17 starts to date.
Most of her best form has come at Chester too, her course form so far reading 5211, including a narrow victory when drawn out wide in a handicap over the bare seven furlongs at this meeting 12 months ago.
Rated 83 at that point, she returned to these parts to defy a mark of 85 towards the end of September and the narrow margin of that cosy victory resulted in her only going up a further 3lb for the win.
I think we can scrap her last run of the season when pitched into an all-weather Listed race at Lingfield (sent off 40/1 on impossible terms with the majority in the line-up) and she’s understandably back here for the first run of her six-year-old campaign.
Soft ground suits and while breaking from the outside again (stall 12), she should get the race run to suit with the likes of Gweedore, Wobwobwob and Percy’s Lad expected to take each other on at the head of affairs.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 11/05/23
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
