After 9/1, 10/1 and 11/1 (antepost) winners last week, don't miss the latest preview as our man looks ahead to day one of Cheltenham's November Meeting.
Value Bet tips: Friday November 11
1pt win Fugitif in 1.45 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General) - 10/1 minimum
1pt win Saint Xavier in 2.55 Cheltenham at 14/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, BoyleSports, Betfred) - general 12/1 also fine
Hobson team in good shape
Irish horses starred at the Showcase last month and when it comes to Cheltenham’s November Meeting highlights this weekend, it wouldn’t be any surprise to see that trend continue as the respective markets for Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle are largely dominated by interesting horses from Ireland.
However, I’m hoping Friday might be slightly more of a home affair and it could be a very good day for local trainer Richard Hobson whose horses are running really well at the moment, including the likes of old boy Lord Du Mesnil who was second to a blot on the handicap (Le Milos) at Bangor in midweek.
It’s hoped he’s been working away with SAINT XAVIER as the 10-year-old looks a potentially well-handicapped horse in the Glenfarclas Veterans’ Handicap Chase.
These races clearly aren’t for everyone but I’ve nothing against them, as a punter, and although Tiger Roll turning up would have been a significant draw for the wider public, the Cross-Country race (which this event replaces, as it did in 2016, on account of the quick ground on the XC Course) being run in January instead at least gives us another decent handicap on the traditional chase track to weigh up.
Saint Xavier made a winning start last season when sent to France, after which he mixed in warm enough company including an Auteuil Grade Two and a handicap at Haydock contested by relatively unexposed and progressive types.
He finished fourth that day off a mark of 130 before filling the runner-up spot in a race of this nature over three and a quarter-miles at Newbury (off 129). I can excuse him the two lesser efforts back across the Channel when last seen in the spring and underfoot conditions here – before it dries out heading into the weekend - should be ideal for Saint Xavier.
A switch of headgear (cheekpieces to visor which he’s worn once before) could sweeten him up again and I like the drop back to this intermediate trip as Lilly Pinchin, who remains good value for her 3lb claim, can afford to be nice and aggressive from the outset.
Prominent racers tend to fare very well on the Old Course and, having slipped to a career-low mark of 123, it doesn’t look right he’s priced up as one of the outsiders of the field, though Thursday support admittedly saw the initial odds contract a little.
Get on the run with unexposed chaser
Hobson’s other runner on the day – FUGITIF – is also worth backing in the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase.
He’s less likely to be embroiled in the early gallop but there’s loads of pace signed up in this event including Gold Des Bois, the blinkered Captain Tom Cat and Monsieur Lecoq, who didn’t get past the second fence when sent on early on his seasonal return at Ascot the other week.
Fugitif was far from foot-perfect throughout his six starts as a novice last season, but he obviously found life tough when thrown into Grade One company against horses of L’Homme Presse’s calibre, and Hobson’s representatives nearly always improve their jumping as they gain more experience anyway.
Fugitif is another who won first time out around this time last year which bodes well, he’ll love any remaining give in the ground and he just looks another well-treated runner for the trainer as he won well off the exact same mark (131) at Newcastle in January, which prompted the subsequent steep rise in class.
On top of that, he is also reunited with Kielan Woods whose only previous spin on the horse was the aforementioned success in the north east, and I’d be amazed if there wasn’t loads more to come from this seven-year-old after just six chase starts.
I’m willing to take on The Glancing Queen after trainer Alan King hinted in his Weekender column that she may just need a run to put her right, and the other one to consider closely against the mare is Grand Annual sixth Hasankey whose fencing technique tightened up appreciably as last season went on.
He probably wasn’t suited by the stop-start tempo when just failing to get up at Ayr late last month, although another 2lb rise for that head defeat means he’s 6lb higher than when last successful and could finally be fighting a losing battle with assessor having gone up from 116 to 138 in less than 18 months.
He’s tempting enough at double-figure odds, but I’ll stick with Fugitif and in-form Hobson to fly the flag on a quiet punting day all told.
Published at 1245 GMT on 10/11/22
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